The Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants may have given us a glimpse of what their potential playoff series could be like during last week’s four-game series at Dodger Stadium. We get treated to an instant rematch, as the two teams now take the field at Oracle Park for a three-game series in San Francisco, California.
It will be Julio Urias and Logan Webb attempting to set the tone for their respective teams on Tuesday night. The Dodgers are -120 at BetOnline Sportsbook with a total of 8 for the series lid-lifter. This is a big one, as the Giants have a two-game lead going into action on Tuesday and the Padres are 5.5 games and are making moves.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers went into Monday’s action tied for the second-most wins in baseball with 61. The only team with more is the team that they are chasing. The Giants are up by one in the win column and three in the loss column, as the Giants have two games in hand on the Dodgers.
The similarities between these two teams are rather striking. Statistically, they are basically on the same wavelength. The Dodgers rank third in wOBA at .330. Los Angeles has a .335 OBP with a 10.5% BB%. Their BB% is second in baseball, trailing only the Yankees. The Dodgers have hit 142 home runs. They are first in wOBA with men in scoring position and also have the most plate appearances in that split.
Los Angeles also has solid pitching numbers across the board and that includes Julio Urias. Urias has a 3.63 ERA with a 3.63 FIP in his 119 innings of work. The left-hander has struck out well over a batter per inning and has one of the league’s best walk rates. The Dodgers are going to have to watch Urias closely, though. His 119 innings are far and away the most he has had in an MLB season and he’ll actually set a career high in innings pitched for a season if he goes more than three innings here.
That will be something to keep an eye on with a lot of young arms. The 24-year-old threw 122 innings in 2016. Forty-five of those came in Triple-A. These are all high-stress MLB innings this season.
The Dodgers had two blown saves last week from Kenley Jansen in the head-to-head series. The Los Angeles bullpen has been pretty good otherwise, but Jansen was shaky last week. We’ll see if he gets a chance at redemption here.
San Francisco Giants
I ran through the Dodgers numbers already, so now let’s run through how the Giants rank. The are fourth in wOBA at .329, so they sit just one point behind the Dodgers. They’ve hit more home runs with 151, but do walk less often than the Dodgers, so they trail in the OBP department.
Maybe the biggest difference between the two teams is that while the Dodgers are first in wOBA with RISP at .354, the Giants are 11th at .326. They haven’t gotten as many hits when it counts. They also haven’t had the same number of opportunities, as the Dodgers have 128 more plate appearances with a runner in scoring position.
Over the long haul, the Dodgers may very well leapfrog the Giants, but this San Francisco team deserves to be talked about in the same breath as Los Angeles. As a clear-cut home underdog here, after being a big dog in all four games last week, it sure feels like the Giants can keep playing the disrespect card because it seems to ring true in the betting markets.
Logan Webb takes the mound here for the Giants with a 3.54 ERA and a 3.32 FIP. He’s only pitched 61 innings, but he has pretty similar run metrics to Urias. One big difference is that Webb does have a much higher BB% than Urias, but he’s also induced a ground ball on nearly 61% of balls in play and has been able to limit the long ball as a result.
The Giants bullpen had its bumps in the road last week as well, but these are two comparable relief units. The Dodgers have a 3.72 ERA with a 3.94 FIP. The Giants have a 3.32 ERA with a 3.88 FIP. San Francisco’s lower walk rate as a bullpen has led to more success.
Dodgers vs. Giants Free Pick
The Giants continue to get disrespected in head-to-head meetings with the Dodgers and this is another example. Webb’s numbers are solid, though the health has been iffy. Urias has pitched well in three of his last four starts, but had a bit of a tough run prior to that. His All-Star Break was shorter than some and the line is just too big with all of these considerations.
Pick: San Francisco Giants