Nine games are on the baseball betting board for tonight, including a doubleheader between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. We don’t have a lot of great pitching matchups on the docket, but we’ve got some interesting games, including the one at Angel Stadium between the Colorado Rockies and the Los Angeles Angels.
Shohei Ohtani will take the mound for the Angels and it will be ace German Marquez for the Rox as these two teams fire up a weekday interleague set. Not surprisingly, the Angels are a sizable favorite in the -155 range at Bookmaker Sportsbook and the total sits at 8 with a couple of solid hurlers on the mound.
The Rockies are playing some decent baseball right now amidst the trade rumors with shortstop Trevor Story. Some teams are looking at putting Story in the outfield, while others are trying to figure out if an upgrade at SS is the missing piece of the puzzle. Give Colorado credit, though, as the Rockies were very competitive despite a series loss against the Dodgers while all of this is going on.
Story is the biggest prize on the Colorado roster, but starter Jon Gray and reliever Mychal Givens are both likely to be moved this week. We could also see a team pick up CJ Cron. You don’t want to shy away from a side you like on the off chance that a player is traded during the afternoon or scratched from the lineup for an impending trade, but those things do come with the territory at this time of the year.
Overall, the Rockies rank 20th in wOBA at .306, but as we know, looking at their surface stats never tells the whole story. Coors Field is a hitter’s haven and the Rockies deal with the Coors Field Effect on the road. The Rockies are 30th in wOBA on the road and their .262 mark is 23 points lower than any other team in the league. Their road K% is one of the highest and they have a .310 SLG away from home. That is the lowest in baseball by 58 points.
Colorado’s 130 road runs are the fewest in baseball by 42. That means that German Marquez shouldn’t bank on a lot of run support. The 26-year-old righty has a strong 3.50 ERA with a 3.33 FIP on the season over 118.1 innings of work. All of his peripherals look great and he’s done an excellent job of keeping the ball on the ground and in the park.
Oddly, Marquez, who has big home/road splits for his career, actually has a higher batting average, OBP, SLG, and wOBA against on the road, where he has a 3.89 ERA in 41.2 innings of work. Compare that with a 3.29 ERA in 76.2 innings at home and it is pretty eye-opening. That said, Marquez has a 2.55 ERA with a 2.70 since the start of June over nine starts. He’s been excellent, save for one start in Cincinnati that makes up 50% of the runs he has allowed in that span with nine runs over five innings.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are still just treading water, much like they have all season long. Mike Trout is nearing a rehab assignment, but the Angels are once again squandering an MVP season, though it hasn’t come from Trout. Shohei Ohtani has been the MVP-worthy guy. His bat sagged off a little bit recently, but he has since picked the pace back up again.
Ohtani comes into this start with a 3.21 ERA and a 3.35 FIP in his 73 innings of work. The right-hander has one really ugly start to his name, but everything else looks quite good. He allowed seven runs on two hits and four walks back on June 30. Otherwise, he’s only allowed 21 runs in 72.1 innings of work this season. His elevated walk rate largely dates back to April, so he has improved in that department as well.
Ohtani can provide his own run support, but his teammates have done a good job of it, especially at home. Los Angeles has had a good offense all season long, but ranks second in wOBA at .349 at home and first in wRC+ at 124. The Angels rank second in SLG among home teams, trailing only the Blue Jays, who have played in great hitter’s parks all season long.
The problem for the Angels is that they’ve needed all of their runs and then some. They’ve been at the top of the league in batting with runners in scoring position this season, but actually have a negative run differential on the season. In 98 games, the Angels have allowed 498 runs and scored 469.
Los Angeles is one of the worst defensive teams in baseball and the bullpen has had its share of problems as well. It turns out that trying to outslug opponents isn’t really working out as well as the Angels had hoped. Ohtani doesn’t have a big ERA-FIP discrepancy, but several other starters do.
Rockies vs. Angels Free Pick
This is a solid pitching matchup tonight at Angel Stadium and a pretty interesting game. As good as Marquez has been this season, the worry here is that the Angels have hit very well in their home park and the Rockies have not really hit well in any road park. It leaves Colorado with minimal margin for error in this one.
Pick: Los Angeles Angels