Kickoff for the 49ers and Chiefs matchup on Sunday, February 11th is set for 6:30 ET. This Super Bowl NFL showdown will be televised on CBS. San Francisco is set to take on the Chiefs in this non-conference matchup, and they are favored by 2 on the road. If you’re interested, you can bet this game at BetUS. Read on for my thoughts and betting angles.
Can the 49ers Deliver Being Favored on the Road?
Looking at the NFC-West standings, the 49ers are in 1st place on a record of 12-5. In the NFC, San Francisco is in 1st place heading into the Super Bowl. So far, San Francisco has gone into all of their games as the favorite and have a 3-7 ATS record at home compared to 6-2-1 on the road vs. the spread. San Francisco’s average scoring margin sits at 10.5 points per game.
Regarding their offense, the 49ers have an average of 28.9 points per game, which places them 2nd in the NFL. This season, San Francisco’s passing offense is 28th in passing attempts. Their average of 257.2 passing yards per contest has them 4th in the NFL.
Looking at their ground game, the 49ers have been carrying the ball an average of 29.3 times per game and are 3rd in rushing yards. They have an average of 4.8 yards per rushing attempt.
On the defensive front, the 49ers currently hold the 14th position in tackles for loss and rank 7th in sacks. Opponents are averaging 18.4 points and 312.6 yards per game against them.
- Danny Gray – Shoulder (Out)
- Samuel Womack III – Knee (Out)
- Darrell Luter Jr. – Knee (Out)
- Robert Beal Jr. – Hamstring (Out)
- Cameron Latu – Knee (Out)
- Elijah Mitchell – Knee (Out)
- Jauan Jennings – Shin (Out)
Does Kansas City Have What it Takes to Win as Home Underdogs?
Looking at the AFC-West standings, the Chiefs are in 1st place on a record of 11-6. In the AFC, Kansas City is in 3rd place heading into the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have put together an above .500 record versus the spread this season, currently at 12-7-1. Their average scoring margin for this season is +5.3.
At home, the Chiefs are averaging 23.1 points per contest compared to their overall numbers of 22 points per game. In the league, Kansas City is 15th in overall scoring. Looking at their performance in the passing game so far, Kansas City is 7th in passing yards per game, where they have an average of 244.8. Additionally, their passing yards per attempt of 6.6, places them 10th in the league.
The Chiefs come into the game handing the ball off 25.4 times per game and are currently 18th in rushing yards. Their average yards per attempt is 4.2.
In terms of yards allowed, the Chiefs are 4th in the league while giving up 294.7 yards per contest. Kansas City’s defense has allowed 16.8 points per game, placing them 2nd in the NFL.
- Jaylen Watson – Shoulder (Out)
- Nazeeh Johnson – Knee (Out)
- Nick Bolton – Ankle (Out)
- Prince Tega Wanogho – Quad (Out)
- Jody Fortson – Shoulder (Out)
- Richie James – Knee (Out)
- Charles Omenihu – Suspension (Out)
49ers vs. Chiefs Pick
Even though the 49ers picked up a win in their previous game, they got off to a slow start on offense. Despite being favored vs. the Chiefs, I like the Chiefs to cover the spread at home (+2).
Pick: Take the Chiefs at +2
The Total
On the over/under, I have the best bet being to take the over at 47.5. This looks like a slam dunk bet for me, as my gut tells me the over will hit as well as our model projecting a combined 51 points.
Pick: Go Over 47.5 points
