Kickoff for the Lions and 49ers matchup on Sunday, January 28th is set for 6:30 ET. This Conference Championship NFL showdown will be televised on FOX. In a matchup between two NFC teams, the 49ers are 7 point favorites at home. Are they the best bet against the spread? Check out my breakdown and analysis of this matchup below. If you’re interested, you can bet this game at BetUS.
Will the Lions Defense Show Up on the Road?
With a record of 12-5, the Lions head into their Conference Championship matchup with 49ers in 1st place in the NFC-North. So far, they have gone 6-3 on the road and 8-2 at home. Against the spread, the Lions are 13-6 this season. This includes them covering the spread in two straight games on the road.
In terms of offense, the Lions are at 27.2 points per game, ranking them 5th in the NFL. In the passing game, the Lions are averaging 259.6 passing yards per game, which is 3rd in the league. So far, 61.8% of their first downs have come through the passing game.
So far, the Lions have run the ball an average of 29 times per game and currently hold the 7th spot in rushing yards. On a per-attempt basis, they average 4.5 yards, which is 5th.
On the defensive front, the Lions enter the game as the 13th-ranked team in tackles for loss and 14th in sacks. Their opponents are averaging 23.2 points per game against them, along with an average of 344.6 yards per contest.
- Khalil Dorsey – Illness (Out)
- Julian Okwara – Arm (Out)
- David Montgomery – Thigh (Out)
- C.J. Gardner-Johnson – Pectoral (Out)
- Emmanuel Moseley – Knee/hamstring (Out)
- Taylor Decker – Ankle (Out)
- Nate Sudfeld – Knee (Out)
- Halapoulivaati Vaitai – Knee (Out)
- Shane Zylstra – Knee (Out)
- Jameson Williams – Suspension (Out)
- James Houston – Ankle (Out)
- Josh Paschal – Knee (Out)
- Kerby Joseph – Hip (Out)
- Hendon Hooker – Knee (Out)
Will the 49ers Defense Show Up at Home?
San Francisco is currently 1st in the NFC-West this season, with an overall record of 12-5. In games outside the conference, they are 2-3, and in NFC games, they’ve gone 11-2. Against the spread, the 49ers are currently 9-8-1. So far, they have been favored in all of their games.
On offense, the 49ers have been one of the better teams in the league in the first quarter, ranking 3rd in the NFL. Overall, they are averaging 28.6 points per game (3rd). San Francisco is currently ranked 4th in the NFL for passing yards per game, with an average of 257.2. In terms of passing yards per attempt, they are 1st in the league.
With 138.9 rushing yards per game, the 49ers hold the 4th spot in the NFL. This average is coming on an average of 29.1 rushing attempts (7th).
On the defensive side of the ball, the 49ers give up an average of 213.1 passing yards and 92.3 rushing yards per game. Looking at their sack numbers, San Francisco is currently ranked 7th in the league. So far, they are giving up 17.7 points per game and 305.4 yards.
- Brandon Aiyuk – Shoulder (Out)
- Danny Gray – Shoulder (Out)
- Samuel Womack III – Knee (Out)
- Ambry Thomas – Knee (Out)
- Robert Beal Jr. – Hamstring (Out)
- Cameron Latu – Knee (Out)
- Darrell Luter Jr. – Knee (Out)
Lions vs. 49ers Pick
My pick on the spread is Detroit at +7. I’m expecting the Detroit rushing attack to exploit the weaknesses in San Francisco’s rush defense. My play for this game is Detroit at +7.
Pick: Take the Lions at +7
The Total
The analysis we’ve been running for this game has Detroit and San Francisco finishing with a combined 51 points. With the over/under line sitting at 51, I’m getting a bet down on the under.
Pick: Go Under 51 points
