The Miami Marlins will face the Washington Nationals on Wednesday, September 3, 2025, at 1:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C..
Game Details
- Date/Time: Wednesday, September 3, 2025, at 1:05 p.m. ET.
- Location: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C..
- TV Coverage: MASN and FDSFL.
Betting Odds
- Moneyline: Marlins -136 (favorite), Nationals +116 (underdog).
- Run Line (Spread): Marlins -1.5 (+114), Nationals +1.5 (-134).
- Total Runs (O/U): 9 (Over -105, Under -115).
- Odds Provided By: MyBookie
Teams & Standings
- Miami Marlins: 65-73 record (34-36 away).
- Washington Nationals: 54-83 record (27-42 home).
Probable Starting Pitchers
- Miami Marlins: Eury Pérez (6-4, 4.04 ERA).
- Washington Nationals: Mitchell Parker (7-15, 5.94 ERA).
Key Players to Watch
Miami Marlins
- Kyle Stowers: .288 AVG, 25 HR, 73 RBI.
- Xavier Edwards: .284 AVG, .341 OBP, .357 SLG.
Washington Nationals
- James Wood: .257 AVG, 26 HR, 84 RBI, .355 OBP.
- CJ Abrams: .265 AVG, 17 HR, .328 OBP, .447 SLG.
Recent Betting Performance
- The Marlins have been favored 20 times this season, winning eight of those games (40%).
- As favorites of at least -136 on the moneyline, the Marlins have won only one out of nine attempts.
- Miami’s record against the spread is 78-56-0 in 134 lines set this season. They’ve exceeded the total runs (“over”) in 65 of 134 games.
- The Nationals are underdogs frequently (47-64 record as such), winning just 42.3% of those contests. As +116 or longer moneyline underdogs, their win rate is 40.4% (36-53).
- The Nationals have gone over their total set in 69 of 131 games.
Probable pitchers & matchup notes
Marlins: RHP Eury Pérez (6–4, 4.04 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) – Pérez’s surface line still looks solid, but his last turn was his rockiest: he recorded only two outs against the Mets and was charged with five runs in a 19–9 loss. That’s an outlier for him and the type of outing talented arms often park and move on from.
Nationals: LHP Mitchell Parker (7–15, 5.94 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) – Parker’s year has trended the wrong way. Over his recent stretch he’s been tagged frequently, and the season WHIP/ERA combo tells the story of too much traffic and too many loud swings. The club site’s rolling splits have his recent ERA well north of 6 across his last 15 starts.
Edge, on paper: Pérez’s power stuff and excellent WHIP point to a clear pitching advantage for Miami. Washington’s path is Parker finding early command and keeping the ball in the park. (When he’s up in the zone, the ball tends to go far.)
Recent results & head-to-head
Washington took the Labor Day opener 2–0 behind Andrew Alvarez’s excellent debut, then followed with a 5–2 win Tuesday. For the series, that makes it 2–0 Nats this week, but Miami still leads the season set 3–2 heading into Wednesday. Momentum says “Nats,” but the wider track record between these two leans “tight series with small margins.”
Splits that actually matter for this matchup
- Marlins vs. LHP (season): .636 OPS. That’s light, and it explains why some books are hanging a very playable total. Parker’s flaws are real, but Miami hasn’t punished southpaws consistently in 2025.
- Nationals vs. RHP (season): ~.712 OPS. That’s around league average-ish, not a weakness, but not a juggernaut especially against frontline fastballs.
Layer on the venue – day ball at Nationals Park with mild temps and you get a relatively neutral run environment that can swing low if Pérez is right. (Forecast on the game page shows upper-70s at first pitch; nothing extreme)
Who’s swinging it
- Nationals: James Wood leads with 26 HR and 84 RBI, while CJ Abrams has swiped 28 bags. Wood’s power/speed blend is real (MLB even highlighted him as one of 14 players with at least 25 HR and 15 SB this year). If Pérez makes mistakes arm-side to lefties, Wood’s bat path punishes them.
- Marlins: Kyle Stowers is listed as the club’s HR leader (25 HR), though he’s currently on the shelf (oblique). Miami’s overall pop is thin (team HR total in the low-130s, among the league’s bottom tier), which is part of why their margin for error relies so much on pitching/defense.
Injury/context quick hits
Miami’s rotation depth has been thinned (Braxton Garrett and Max Meyer out for the season), and Stowers’ absence dings the lineup shape even if he’s not your classic lefty-masher. Washington’s rotation is juggling pieces too; MacKenzie Gore is out, which is how Alvarez grabbed Monday’s start. None of those injuries change Wednesday’s probables, but they matter for bullpen stress if this turns into a middle-innings game.
Handicapping the number
Moneyline (-135 / +115): The price implies ~57% for Miami. That feels a tick short if you trust Pérez to look like the 1.04 WHIP version and not the “Mets blitzed me” outlier. Parker’s season-long contact profile and recent trendline are a problem against even a middling offense however the Marlins’ .636 OPS vs LHP is the one stat that keeps this from being an auto-fire on a road favorite. The bet comes down to which you weight more: Miami’s sizable starting-pitching edge, or their season-long wobble vs southpaws. For me, the pitching gap wins out.
Total (8.5): Two things pull this toward the Under: (1) Nationals’ offense vs RHP has been ordinary (~.712 OPS), and (2) Miami’s bats vs LHP have been below average, as noted. Parker’s volatility is the fly in the ointment; he can give up a three-spot in a heartbeat. Still, with Pérez’s strike-throwing and the Nats’ swing profile, 8.5 is a fair ceiling unless Washington strings together traffic early.