The Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins close down a three-game set at LoanDepot Park in Miami on Thursday, August 26, 2021, with the first pitch at 7:10 PM ET, so we’ve prepared the best Nats vs. Marlins betting picks and odds.
Washington has dominated Miami so far this season. Excluding the middle contest of this series, the Nats are 8-3 against the Marlins in 2021. Washington is listed as a slight underdog for Thursday’s clash, while Miami is a -108 moneyline fave on BetOnline Sportsbook.
The Nationals have won a few games lately
The rebuilding Washington Nationals have been awful since the trade deadline. They are 6-14 in August, posting the fourth-highest ERA in the majors (5.58) along with the tenth-best OPS (.765). Four of those six wins came in the last seven days, as Washington upset the odds against Miami, Milwaukee, and Toronto (twice).
Patrick Corbin will get the nod Thursday, and he’s 7-12 with a rough 5.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 24 starts this season. Last Friday, the 32-year-old left-hander tossed 6.1 frames of a one-run ball and took a win against Milwaukee, allowing just three hits and striking out seven.
Corbin has been awful for most of the season. In nine appearances since July 1, the lefty has surrendered fewer than four earned runs only twice. He’s 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA in a couple of starts against Miami in 2021 and 5-4 with a 3.84 ERA in 14 career dates with the Marlins.
The Marlins are falling apart
The Miami Marlins extended their losing streak to eight games with a 5-1 defeat to the Nationals last Tuesday. They’ve scored only 21 runs during that awful run, and the Marlins have a disastrous .542 OPS over their previous five outings.
On the other side of the ball, Miami has registered the third-highest ERA in baseball so far this month (6.00) to go with a 1.54 WHIP and a .277 batting average against. The Marlins bullpen has a 6.80 ERA in the last two weeks of action and allows 4.2 walks and 1.4 home runs per nine innings.
Elieser Hernandez will get the starting call Thursday, his fifth of the season and third this month. The 26-year-old righty took a loss in a 5-3 defeat at Cincinnati last Friday, giving up five runs (four earned) on five hits and a couple of walks across 4.2 innings of work. He’s 1-2 with a 7.18 ERA in four career starts and five relief apps against Washington.
- 9-3 in the last 12 games against Miami
- 4-13 in the last 17 games overall
- 1-4 in the last five games at home
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Pick
This game could easily go either way, but I’m backing the Nats to win only because of their offense. Juan Soto has just a couple of homers in August, but he’s slashing .300/.559/.500 over the last seven games and 34 plate appearances. He could be a decisive factor in a matchup like this one, and Soto is 4-for-12 against Elieser Hernandez with three extra-base hits and three RBI.
The Nationals have won nine of their last 12 meetings with the Marlins, including a 15-0 dismantling in their 2020 regular-season finale.
Pick: Take Washington Nationals at -102
I’ve mentioned the Marlins’ woes on both sides of the ball. When it comes to the Nationals, their bullpen has recorded a terrible 6.04 ERA and 6.58 FIP in the last two weeks. Hereof, I’m backing the over on the totals, although LoanDepot is quite a pitcher-friendly ballpark.
The Marlins will have a great opportunity to score some runs off Patrick Corbin’s relievers. Also, Corbin has a disappointing 5.66 ERA in six career starts in Miami. On the other side, the Nationals will look to extend their decent offensive form in this favorable matchup with the Marlins’ pitching staff.
Pick: Go over 7.5 runs at -110