The Toronto Blue Jays head to Yankee Stadium in New York this Monday afternoon to start a four-game series against their divisional foes, so we’ve prepared the best Jays vs. Yankees betting pick and odds for September 5, 2021.
The Yanks are slight home favorites for the opener, according to the Top Sportsbooks. They split the first 12 encounters with the Jays in 2021, but New York is undefeated in four straight meetings with Toronto.
The Blue Jays are in a must-win situation
Toronto extended its winning streak to three games with a 10-8 victory to Oakland this past Saturday and improved to 72-62 on the season (Sunday’s games have been excluded from the analysis). They still trailed the bottom wild card in the American League by five games, so the Blue Jays desperately need to stay on the winning track if they want to sneak into the postseason.
At least, the Blue Jays finally got things going at the plate, scoring 35 runs over their previous five outings and slashing .287/.366/.573. On the pitching side of things, the Jays have compiled a 3.78 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and a .241 batting average against over the last two weeks of action.
Hyun-Jin Ryu will toe the slab Monday and face off against the Yankees for the fourth time this season. He’s 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 15/6 K/BB ratio in his previous three dates with the Yanks (18 innings pitched).
Ryu is 12-8 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 26 starts this season, but the 34-year-old lefty hasn’t been at his best lately. He’s yielded a whopping 21 earned runs over his previous five starts and 26.1 frames of work.
The Yankees are slowing down once more
After a disappointing first half of the season, the New York Yankees have been dominating the majors since the All-Star break. However, things have changed a bit lately, and the Yankees have dropped five of their previous seven games overall, scoring just 25 runs in the process. Also, the Yanks have recorded a disappointing .224/.294/.411 slash line over the last couple of weeks.
Jameson Taillon will get the nod Monday, looking to avoid his second straight loss. Last Tuesday, the 29-year-old right-hander got battered by the Angels and yielded six earned runs across 4.2 innings of work.
Taillon is 8-5 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 26 starts this term. He’s struggled mightily over his previous four outings (18.2 innings), posting a terrible 8.20 ERA and a .887 OPS against. The righty is 1-1 with a 6.52 ERA in a couple of career starts against the Blue Jays.
- 6-1 in the last seven games overall
- 2-5 in the last seven games overall
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Pick
The stake is huge in this series, and the opening clash could easily go either way. I will lean on the Blue Jays’ resurrected offense, though the Yankees bullpen is a huge factor and owns a 3.09 ERA and 3.41 FIP in the last ten days of action.
On the other side, the Jays’ relievers have posted a poor 4.71 ERA and 4.42 FIP in that stretch. Their bullpen cannot be trusted which is a big issue in games like this one, but Toronto has plenty of dangerous bats on its lineup, and the current Blue Jays are slashing .279/.375/.503 in 43 at-bats against Jameson Taillon.
Pick: Take Toronto Blue Jays at +125
Two of the previous three encounters between these two AL East foes produced runs in double digits, and I’m expecting another high-scoring affair Monday, as both starting pitchers will have a tall task to slow down their rivals.
In his previous date with the Jays, Jameson Taillon gave up five earned runs across just 3.2 innings of work. On the other side, Hyun-Jin Ryu is far away from his top form, and the Yankees are much better when hitting the lefties (108 sOPS+).
Pick: Go over 9.5 runs at -110