Nobody expected only one series of this MLB playoffs’ Wild Card to be decided in Game 3, but that’s how it worked out, and we have a decider on Sunday, October 9, in New York, so make sure you don’t miss the best Padres vs. Mets betting pick and odds.
San Diego and New York will play the final of a best-of-three NLWC series at Citi Field, and the Mets are -130 moneyline favorites on BetUS Sportsbook, while the total is set at 6.5 runs. These NL foes have faced eight times this year, including this postseason series, and the Padres lead 5-3.
Padres dissolved in the 7th as the Mets tied the series
The San Diego Padres opened this NLWC series in style with a comfortable 7-1 victory at Citi Field, but couldn’t do it in two games and sweep the Mets to progress to the NLDS. The Padres did have a 2-2 tie in the 5th inning, but the hosts took the lead in the bottom of that inning and later added four more runs to secure a 7-3 victory.
Juan Soto was the only Padre with a multi-hit game, but he didn’t drive a run or scored one. Jurickson Profar, Trent Grisham, and Manny Machado, who batted 0-4 in this loss, recorded an RBI apiece. Grisham’s was a solo home run, his second in many games in the postseason, becoming only the third Padre to do it. Blake Snell had a forgettable outing as he struggled with control and pitched for just 3.2 innings, allowing two runs on four hits with five strikeouts and six walks. Nick Martinez took a loss, while Adrian Morejon surrendered even four runs without getting a single out in the process.
Joe Musgrove will get on the mound for the Padres in Game 3 of the NLWC series against the Mets on Sunday. The 29-year-old right-hander started 30 games this year and owns a 2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 184/42 K/BB ratio across 181.0 innings of work.
Mets are still alive thanks to the strong 7th inning
The New York Mets bounced back from a disappointing outing in the opening game of this NLWC series with a 7-3 win. It was a deserved victory, it has to be said, as New York recorded nine hits opposite San Diego’s six and erupted in the 7th inning for four runs, which decided this tilt.
Jacob deGrom was in control as he had 99 pitches during 6.0 innings and surrendered two runs on five hits with eight strikeouts and two walks. It was a winning performance for the 34-year-old ace, while Seth Lugo was credited with a save. On offense, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso blasted a solo home run each, while Jeff McNeil chipped in two RBIs.
Chris Bassitt will start Game 3 of this NLWC series against San Diego on Sunday. The 33-year-old right-hander started 30 times this year and carries a 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 167/49 K/BB ratio over 181.2 innings.
- 6-2 in the last eight road games
- 4-1 in the last five road games vs. a right-handed starter
- 6-2 in the last eight games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15
- 2-5 in the last seven games following a win
- 1-4 in the last five playoff games
- 1-5 in the last six after scoring five runs or more in their previous game
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Pick
Joe Musgrove is experiencing the bests season of his career, and although he didn’t impress in his lone start against the Mets this year, he did in recent starts overall. Namely, Musgrove didn’t allow more than a run in each of his previous four starts, and three of those were shutouts (once against the Dodgers). On the other hand, Chris Bassitt, who registered a terrible 7.84 ERA in 10.1 innings in two starts (two losses) against San Diego, allowed 2+ runs in three of his last four starts, including four in his latest against Atlanta when he lasted only 2.2 innings. The pitching matchup is, in my opinion, on San Diego’s side, and that’s why I am backing the visitors to get a win and advance to the NLDS.
Pick: Take the Padres to win (+120)
Unlike some other games in this Wild Card series, we saw a lot of action and runs as both games of this series went Over. Given how both Musgrove and Bassitt performed against the Mets and Padres, respectively, this year, I can only back another Over. Over is 5-0 in the Padres’ last five games vs. a right-handed starter; Over is 4-1 in San Diego’s previous five Wild Card Round games, Over is 8-1 in the Mets’ last nine playoff games, while Over is 8-1 in New York’s previous nine games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Pick: Go Over 6.5 runs (-110)