The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds continue their regular-season series Tuesday, September 21, 2021, with the middle contest of a three-game set at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. We’ve prepared the best Bucs vs. Reds betting pick and odds, so let’s take a closer look.

Excluding Monday night’s opener, the Reds are 10-3 against the Bucs in 2021. Cincinnati sits at -191 moneyline odds for Tuesday’s clash with the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET, while the totals are listed at 9.0 runs on Bookmaker Sportsbook. 

The Pirates won four straight series            

The Pittsburgh Pirates fell to 56-93 on the season following a 6-5 defeat to Miami in ten innings this past Sunday. The Bucs missed a chance to sweep the Marlins but still won their fourth straight series, outlasting Miami, Cincinnati, Washington, and Detroit in the process.

Over the last couple of weeks, the Pirates have won eight of their 12 games at any location while registering a solid 3.75 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and a .239 batting average against. They’ve scored 50 runs in that stretch, slashing .256/.339/.370 and smacking only five home runs.

Mitch Keller will take the mound Tuesday and face off against the Reds for the fourth time in 2021. He’s gone 0-2 through the previous three, giving up a whopping 13 earned runs on 18 hits and eight walks across 13.1 innings of work.

Keller is 4-11 with a poor 6.14 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 20 starts this season. Over his previous four outings (21.1 innings), the 25-year-old right-hander has registered a 5.48 ERA and 3.72 FIP, allowing a .777 OPS and .375 BABIP to his opponents.

The Reds are in trouble

The 77-73 Cincinnati Reds trailed the bottom wild card in the National League by three games on Monday. They’ve been terrible as of late, dropping 14 of their previous 20 games overall. Furthermore, the Reds are the coldest offensive team in the majors over the last couple of weeks, sitting bottom of the rankings in both OPS (.605) and batting average (.205).

On the pitching side of things, Cincinnati has done a good job during that span, compiling a 3.56 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and a .225 batting average against. Also, the Reds bullpen has registered a sharp 2.90 ERA and 2.96 FIP while averaging 10.7 strikeouts and 2.23 walks per nine innings.

Tyler Mahle will toe the slab Tuesday, and the 26-year-old righty is 4-3 with a 3.02 ERA in nine career starts against the Bucs. He’s emerged victorious in all three dates with Pittsburgh in 2021, yielding just three earned runs on 15 hits and five walks through 18.1 innings of work.

Mahle is 12-5 with a decent 3.59 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 30 starts this season. He’s recorded a 2.73 ERA and 3.53 FIP over his previous five appearances, allowing a .636 OPS and .288 BABIP to his rivals.

Trends:

Pittsburgh:

  • 3-14 in the last 17 games against Cincinnati

Cincinnati:

  • 12-1 in the last 13 home games against Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick

Mitch Keller has struggled mightily against Cincinnati so far this season, so this is a perfect opportunity for the Reds to finally get things going at the plate. The current Reds are slashing .333/.410/.529 in 68 at-bats against Keller, and Mitch has surrendered 13 earned runs across 12 innings of work at Great American Ball Park.

The Pirates bullpen has done a decent job in the last two weeks, posting a 5-3 record to go with a 3.32 ERA and 4.13 FIP. However, their offense will have a tall task to hit well against Tyler Mahle, who’s dominated them so far this term.

Pick: Take Cincinnati Reds at -191

The Total:

The totals are a tricky wager, as I don’t trust Mitch Keller and the Bucs ‘pen even though the Reds’ offense has been horrible as of late. On the other side, the current Pirates are slashing just .181/.214/.260 in 62 at-bats against Tyler Mahle.

Last week, the Reds beat the Bucs 1-0 thanks to Mahle’s strong pitching. Therefore, I’ll take the under, but the side bet looks way more tempting.

Pick: Go over 9.0 runs at -115