Vegas and Anaheim meet in Game 4 of the Western Conference Second Round tonight in Anaheim. The Golden Knights lead the series 2-1 after a 6-2 road win in Game 3 on Friday, May 8.
Vegas is a small road favorite on the moneyline (-113), while Anaheim sits at -106. The total is 6.5 with the under slightly juiced.
Regular-season context: Vegas finished first in the Pacific (95 points) and Anaheim finished third (92 points), so this price is more about current form and matchup edges than seed lines alone.
Odds & Game Info
Odds as of 8:02 a.m. ET on May 10, 2026.
Puck drop is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET at Honda Center (Anaheim).
| Team | Spread (Puck Line) | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | -1.5 (+194) | -113 | Over 6.5 (-106) |
| Anaheim Ducks | +1.5 (-245) | -106 | Under 6.5 (-114) |
Starting goalies: not confirmed as of publish time.
Team Stats
These are the core scoring and special-teams indicators from the regular season.
| Team | Goals per game | Goals allowed per game | Power play % | Penalty kill % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 3.22 | 2.95 | 24.47% | 81.37% |
| Anaheim Ducks | 3.23 | 3.51 | 18.56% | 76.36% |
Recaps
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas snapped back in Game 3 with a 6-2 win at Honda Center (May 8), scoring 6 goals on 28 shots while going 1-for-3 on the power play. Vegas also won the faceoff battle (56.9%) and got 31 saves from Carter Hart (.939).
The overall defensive profile still matters in this matchup: Vegas allowed 24.39 shots per game in the regular season and finished at 2.95 goals allowed per game, giving them a steadier “floor” when games tighten up.
Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim earned its split in Vegas with a 3-1 win in Game 2 (May 6), getting 22 saves from Lukas Dostal and scoring twice at even strength before an empty-net goal. The Ducks went 0-for-5 on the power play in that win and were 0-for-9 on the series power play through the first two games.
In Game 3 (May 8), Anaheim generated 33 shots but went 0-for-2 on the power play in the 6-2 loss, so the special-teams drought has continued even when the 5v5 shot volume shows up.
Matchup Keys
- Special teams lean Vegas: Vegas had a top-tier regular-season PP (24.47%) vs Anaheim’s PK (76.36%), and Anaheim’s PP (18.56%) is running into a Vegas PK that has been elite this postseason (24-for-25, 96%).
- Shot suppression edge: Vegas allowed 24.39 shots against per game in the regular season; Anaheim allowed 28.37. If Anaheim is not winning the shot-quality battle, it is hard to justify them as a home favorite.
- Anaheim’s 5v5 profile is mixed: the Ducks posted a strong 5v5 CF% (52.9%) and positive 5v5 expected goals (186.3 xGF vs 180.2 xGA), but still finished with more 5v5 goals allowed than scored (171 GF, 190 GA). That gap can decide tight playoff games.
- Discipline matters more than usual in this series: Vegas took 10 penalty minutes in Game 2, and the Ducks have still not converted on the power play in the series. If Anaheim cannot punish penalties, Vegas can be more aggressive with its forecheck.
- Rest and travel: both teams have had a full day off since Game 3, and there is no back-to-back or cross-time-zone travel spot heading into Game 4 in Anaheim.
Betting Trends
- Anaheim was 24-13-4 at home in the regular season.
- Vegas was 19-14-8 on the road in the regular season.
- Vegas is 7-3-0 over its last 10 games entering tonight.
- Anaheim is 6-4-0 over its last 10 games entering tonight.
- Through three games in this series, Anaheim is 0-for-11 on the power play (0-for-9 in Games 1-2, 0-for-2 in Game 3).
- Vegas has scored 9 goals across the last two games in this series (Games 1 and 3).
- Vegas has been held to 22 shots in each of the first two games of the series, then posted 28 shots in Game 3.
- In Game 3, Vegas went 33.3% on the power play and won 56.9% of faceoffs, two indicators that translate well to road playoff games.
Best Bet
Vegas Golden Knights moneyline (-113).
Vegas has the cleaner defensive résumé (2.95 goals allowed per game) and a meaningful special-teams edge, especially with Anaheim still searching for its first power-play goal of the series. Anaheim’s home record is strong, but if the Ducks are not converting chances with the man advantage, they need to win at 5v5 against a team that suppresses shots well. At basically a pick’em price, the side with the better goals-against profile and higher-end power play is the bet.
Predicted Score
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of Vegas 4, Anaheim 3
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