Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators is set for Wednesday, April 15, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa.
Ottawa is priced as the clear favorite on the moneyline (-182), with Toronto coming back at +150. The market is also hanging a 6.5 total with slight juice to the under.
In the Atlantic picture, Ottawa has already put itself in a strong position while Toronto is playing out the string. That context matters here because Ottawa has shown it can win with structure and goaltending, while Toronto’s recent results have been driven by defensive breakdowns and uneven netminding.
Odds & Game Info
| Spread (Puck Line) | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| TOR +1.5 (-164) | OTT -1.5 (+134) | TOR +150 | OTT -182 | Over 6.5 (-108) | Under 6.5 (-112) |
Odds as of 10:02 AM ET on April 15, 2026. Odds market referenced from BetOnline.
Projected starting goalies
- Toronto: Joseph Woll (expected, not confirmed)
- Ottawa: Linus Ullmark (expected, not confirmed)
Injury snapshot
- Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews (out for season, knee), Anthony Stolarz (out for season, lower body), Chris Tanev (out for season, abdomen), Dakota Joshua (out for season, upper body), Brandon Carlo (out, lower body)
- Senators: Nick Jensen (out, lower body), Tyler Kleven (out, upper body), Dennis Gilbert (out, upper body); Tim Stützle (day-to-day, rest), Jake Sanderson (day-to-day, rest), Thomas Chabot (day-to-day, rest), Brady Tkachuk (day-to-day, undisclosed)
Rest and travel
- Toronto last played April 13, then makes a short trip to Ottawa.
- Ottawa last played April 12 (at New Jersey), then returns home.
Team Records
Team records reference: Records and splits
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS (Puck Line) | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 32-35-14 | 3-6-1-0 | 34-47-0 | 45-30-6 |
| Ottawa Senators | 43-27-11 | 5-3-1-1 | 38-43-0 | 43-37-1 |
Team Stats
Team stats reference: Team stats
| Team | Goals per game | Goals allowed per game | Power play % | Penalty kill % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 3.08 | 3.58 | 21.2% | 82.1% |
| Ottawa Senators | 3.36 | 3.01 | 23.4% | 75.6% |
Recaps
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto’s latest was a 6-5 loss to Dallas on April 13, allowing 6 goals on 32 shots while going 1-for-2 on the power play and giving up 1 power-play goal on 3 kills. Over their last four games, the Leafs have allowed 21 total goals (6, 6, 5, and 4), which has kept them in catch-up mode even when the power play contributes.
The bigger profile issue is volume against: Toronto is allowing 32.39 shots against per game on the season, and the recent game logs show they can get buried in long defensive-zone stretches when they fall behind the puck.
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa comes in off a 4-3 overtime loss at New Jersey on April 12 in a 30-30 shot game, with special teams going 1-for-4 on the power play and allowing 1 power-play goal on 4 kills. Before that, the Senators beat the Islanders 3-0 on April 11, then handled Florida 5-1 on April 9, showing the same blueprint: lower shot volume against and enough finishing to separate.
Linus Ullmark’s recent run has been strong in terms of results and efficiency, including a shutout vs the Islanders (23 saves) and a 1-goal game vs Florida (23 saves), which is a key reason Ottawa can play lower-event hockey when it wants to.
Matchup Keys
- Ottawa’s shot suppression vs Toronto’s shot volume issues: Senators allow 24.46 shots against per game; Leafs generate 26.40 shots per game.
- Special teams leans toward scoring chances both ways: Ottawa PP 23.4% vs Toronto PK 82.1%, and Toronto PP 21.2% vs Ottawa PK 75.6%.
- Goaltending form edge: Ullmark’s recent game-by-game results have been steadier than Toronto’s, which has featured multiple 5+ goals-allowed games in the last week.
- 5v5 expected-goals profile: Ottawa has been the stronger 5v5 chance-quality team this season by xG rate (OTT xGF/60 2.67, xGA/60 2.12) compared to Toronto (TOR xGF/60 2.20, xGA/60 2.35).
- Availability risk for Ottawa’s core: Ottawa has multiple top-end names listed day-to-day, so confirm who is in before betting anything tied to pace or team totals.
Betting Trends
- Maple Leafs are 34-47-0 ATS (puck line) this season.
- Senators are 38-43-0 ATS (puck line) this season.
- Maple Leafs are 45-30-6 to the over/under result this season.
- Senators are 43-37-1 to the over/under result this season.
- Toronto is 14-20-6 on the road; Ottawa is 22-12-6 at home.
- Toronto is 3-6-1-0 in its last 10 games, with a 6-3-1 O/U result over that span.
- Ottawa is 5-3-1-1 in its last 10 games, with a 5-4-1 O/U result over that span.
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings listed, the O/U result is 7-3-0.
Best Bet
Under 6.5 (-112).
Ottawa’s season-long defensive profile is built on limiting attempts and keeping opponents to modest shot totals, and that matters against a Toronto team already generating just 26.40 shots per game. If Ullmark starts, Ottawa has a clear path to turning this into a structure game where Toronto has to score efficiently rather than by volume. The biggest risk to the under is Toronto’s recent goals-allowed spike forcing a track meet, but Ottawa’s shot suppression gives the under a cleaner narrative than asking Toronto to keep pace offensively.
Predicted Score
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of Senators 4, Maple Leafs 2
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