Toronto visits New York at Madison Square Garden in a near pickem, with the Rangers priced at -118 and the Maple Leafs at -102. The market is shading toward offense with Over 5.5 juiced to -140.
In the standings, Toronto sits at 27-24-11 (65 points) in the Atlantic, while New York is 23-29-8 (54 points) in the Metropolitan. Both teams are underwater in goal differential, but Toronto brings the stronger scoring profile into a tough rest spot.
Odds as of 7:48 a.m. ET on March 5, 2026.
Odds & Game Info
One quick table with the key lines for Thursday night.
| Game Info | Spread (Puck Line) | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:10 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden (New York, NY) | TOR +1.5 (-245) | NYR -1.5 (+194) | TOR -102 | NYR -118 | Over 5.5 (-140) | Under 5.5 (+112) |
Recent Form
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto is 3-5-2 over its last 10, and the season profile remains volatile: 3.18 goals for per game with 3.42 goals allowed per game. Shot volume is solid (27.45 shots for per game), but defensive workload is heavy (32.06 shots against per game), which has kept their team save percentage at .893.
Special teams are a stabilizer on one side: Toronto’s penalty kill is 83.4%, while the power play sits at 19.9%. From a rest perspective, the Leafs are on the second night of a back-to-back after playing Wednesday in Newark, with minimal travel into New York.
New York Rangers
New York is 2-6-2 in its last 10 and has struggled to generate consistent offense all season (2.62 goals per game, 31st in the league by rank). The Rangers also play at a lower shooting pace (25.57 shots per game), and their team save percentage is .890, so they have not consistently “won the goalie battle” despite allowing fewer shots than Toronto (28.78 shots against per game).
The power play is a clear strength at 22.4%, but the penalty kill is 79.2%. At home, results have been a major issue: 7-15-6 at Madison Square Garden.
Matchup Keys
- Leafs offense vs Rangers offense: Toronto scores 3.18 goals per game, New York scores 2.62. That gap matters more with a 5.5 total.
- Rangers special teams edge, Leafs PK counter: New York’s power play is 22.4%, but Toronto’s penalty kill is 83.4%.
- Toronto’s defensive shot volume risk: The Leafs allow 32.06 shots against per game, a dangerous profile against a Rangers team with a capable power play and an at-home matchup change.
- Rest spot: Toronto is on a back-to-back; New York is not. Late-game legs and penalties can swing close spreads and totals.
- Goaltending status: Projected matchup shows Joseph Woll vs Igor Shesterkin, but starting goalies should be treated as unconfirmed until official pregame confirmation.
Betting Trends
- Toronto is 27-24-11 overall, but only 11-14-5 on the road.
- New York is 23-29-8 overall, and 7-15-6 at home.
- Toronto has been outscored by 15 goals on the season; New York by 33.
- Toronto games average 6.60 total goals (3.18 for, 3.42 against).
- New York games average 5.79 total goals (2.62 for, 3.17 against).
- Toronto’s penalty kill (83.4%) is meaningfully stronger than New York’s (79.2%).
- New York’s power play (22.4%) is stronger than Toronto’s (19.9%).
- Neither team is getting above-average team goaltending by season save percentage (TOR .893, NYR .890).
Best Bet
Toronto Maple Leafs moneyline (-102).
Toronto is the more reliable 5-on-5 scoring team (3.18 goals per game vs 2.62), and New York’s home record (7-15-6) has been a persistent drag even when the Rangers’ power play shows up. The Rangers also have a key lineup hit with J.T. Miller out, which can thin the margin for an offense already near the bottom of the league. The back-to-back is the main risk for Toronto, but the travel is minimal and the price is still basically even.
Predicted Score
Maple Leafs 4, Rangers 3
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