Toronto visits New Jersey at 7:10 p.m. ET with the Devils priced as a small home favorite (-120) and the Maple Leafs at even money (+100). The market is also leaning Over 5.5 at a tax (-132), with the Under returning plus money (+108).
This is a matchup of two inconsistent teams trying to stabilize. Toronto has the higher-scoring profile (3.18 goals per game), but it also bleeds volume defensively (31.82 shots against per game). New Jersey drives play more consistently at 5-on-5, yet its finishing has lagged for much of the season.
New Jersey is on the second night of a back-to-back (home again), while Toronto last played Monday and travels in with a rest advantage.
Odds & Game Info
Odds as of 11:13 a.m. ET on March 4, 2026. Puck drop is 7:10 p.m. ET at Prudential Center (Newark, NJ). Expected goalies: Joseph Woll (TOR) and Jake Allen (NJD).
This table shows the current market lines.
| Spread (Puck Line) | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| NJD -1.5 (+210) | TOR +1.5 (-265) | NJD -120 | TOR +100 | Over 5.5 (-132) | Under 5.5 (+108) |
Team Snapshot
Here’s a side-by-side snapshot of where each team stands entering tonight.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace | Key Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs | 27-24-10 (Home: 16-11-7 | Road: 11-13-3) | 3-6-1 | 24-36 (puck line) | 24-17 | 3.18 GF/G | 3.43 GA/G | 27.46 SF/G | Chris Tanev (groin) out |
| Devils | 30-29-2 (Home: 14-13-2 | Road: 16-16-0) | 3-7-0 | 19-33 (puck line) | 16-25-1 | 2.51 GF/G | 3.00 GA/G | 29.43 SF/G | Stefan Noesen (knee) out; Zack MacEwen (ACL) out for season |
Recent Form
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto’s last 10 (3-6-1) has been weighed down by defense and game state, not a total collapse of chance creation. The Leafs are still scoring 3.18 goals per game overall, but they’re giving up 3.43 goals per game and the most damaging signal is volume: 31.82 shots against per game. If the Leafs don’t cut down the looks against, they’re forcing their goalie to be the plan instead of the safety net.
Special teams remain a real lever for Toronto. The penalty kill is 83.1%, which helps stabilize games even when the 5-on-5 defending is leaky. Offensively, the Leafs’ power play sits at 19.6%, which is fine, but not dominant enough to erase the defensive profile when games get loose.
At 5-on-5, Toronto’s process has been below break-even in shot share (46.7 CF%), and its expected-goals share sits below 50% as well. The Leafs can still win games in this kind of environment, but it usually requires finishing to show up early and avoid chasing.
New Jersey Devils
New Jersey’s overall results have been rough (3-7-0 last 10), but it enters this one with momentum after a 5-1 win Tuesday night, and it stays home for the second leg of the back-to-back. The Devils’ season scoring rate is just 2.51 goals per game, and that gap between shots and goals is backed by 5-on-5 finishing: 6.4% at even strength is extremely low for a team that controls play as often as New Jersey does.
The Devils’ 5-on-5 profile is the most interesting part of this matchup. New Jersey owns a 51.6 CF% and generates expected goals at a competitive level, but it has been outscored at 5-on-5 (aGF well below xGF). If the finishing normalizes even slightly, the Devils have the possession edge to dictate long stretches.
Defensively, New Jersey has done a better job limiting what Toronto struggles with most: shot volume. The Devils allow 27.77 shots against per game, which is a meaningful contrast to Toronto’s tendency to allow opponents to pile up attempts. Special teams are close to league-average: 20.0% power play and 80.0% penalty kill.
Matchup Keys
- Shot volume clash: Toronto allows 31.82 shots against per game, while New Jersey generates 29.43 shots for per game. If that holds, the Devils’ scoring floor rises even if finishing remains mediocre.
- Special teams swing: Leafs PK (83.1%) vs Devils PP (20.0%). If Toronto stays out of the box, it removes a key path New Jersey has to score efficiently.
- 5-on-5 control vs finishing: Devils have the better 5v5 shot share (51.6 CF%), but their 5v5 shooting percentage (6.4%) has been a season-long drag.
- Toronto’s defensive tax: Even with stronger finishing, the Leafs’ below-50% 5v5 profile (46.7 CF%) creates more one-goal, high-variance outcomes.
- Schedule spot: New Jersey is on a back-to-back (home again). Toronto is not, and travel is the tradeoff.
Betting Trends
- Toronto is 24-36 against the puck line this season.
- New Jersey is 19-33 against the puck line this season.
- Toronto is 24-17 on O/U results this season.
- New Jersey is 16-25-1 on O/U results this season.
- Leafs games are high-event by profile: 3.18 GF/G and 3.43 GA/G.
- Devils games are more dependent on whether they finish: 29.43 shots for per game, but only 2.51 goals per game.
- Toronto’s penalty kill (83.1%) is the best unit on either side’s special teams.
- New Jersey allows just 27.77 shots against per game, a potential limiter versus a Toronto offense that is below 28 shots for per game (27.46).
Best Bet
Toronto Maple Leafs moneyline (+100).
Toronto has the clearer scoring edge (3.18 goals per game vs. 2.51), and it also comes in with the better rest setup while New Jersey plays the second night of a back-to-back. The Devils’ 5-on-5 possession numbers are strong, but their even-strength finishing has been a real issue over a large sample, and that matters when you’re laying juice. At +100, you’re buying Toronto’s higher offensive ceiling in a near coin-flip price range.
Predicted Score
Toronto 4, New Jersey 3
21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.