Tampa Bay heads to Montreal for Game 3 of the Eastern First Round on Friday, April 24, 2026. The series is tied 1-1 after both teams won in overtime in Tampa.
The market is dealing Tampa as a small road favorite (Lightning -120, Canadiens +100) with a 5.5 total shaded to the over.
In the regular season, both clubs finished on 106 points, with Tampa taking second in the Atlantic and Montreal right behind them. Buffalo led the division with 109 points.
Odds & Game Info
Odds as of 10:21 AM ET on April 22, 2026. Lines via BetAnything.
| Market | Tampa Bay Lightning | Montréal Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| Spread (puck line) | -1.5 (198) | +1.5 (-250) |
| Moneyline | -120 | +100 |
| Total | Over 5.5 (-132) | Under 5.5 (108) |
- When: Friday, April 24, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
- Where: Bell Centre (Montreal, QC)
- Rest/travel: Both teams last played Tuesday, April 21 (Game 2). Two full off-days before Game 3; series shifts from Tampa to Montreal.
- Starting goalies: Not confirmed as of publication.
Team Records
This table uses full-season results.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 50-26-6 | 5-5 | 41-41 | 41-36 |
| Montréal Canadiens | 48-24-10 | 6-4 | 46-36 | 44-35 |
- Tampa Bay road split (regular season): 24-12-5
- Montreal home split (regular season): 24-15-2
Team Stats
These are full-season per-game rates.
| Team | Goals per game | Goals allowed per game | Power play % | Penalty kill % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 3.49 | 2.79 | 20.7% | 82.6% |
| Montréal Canadiens | 3.40 | 3.06 | 23.1% | 78.2% |
- Shots for per game: Tampa Bay 28.1, Montreal 26.3
- Shots against per game: Tampa Bay 26.7, Montreal 27.8
- 5v5 metrics (CF%, xGF%): Not listed in the referenced team stat feed, so omitted.
Recaps
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa split the first two at home, losing Game 1 4-3 in overtime before winning Game 2 3-2 in overtime. In Game 2, Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 25 shots and Tampa generated a 9-0 shot edge in the overtime period before the winner.
From a matchup standpoint, Tampa’s strongest baseline indicators are defensive. The Lightning allowed 2.79 goals per game in the regular season and allowed fewer shots (26.7 per game) than they generated (28.1 per game), which plays well on the road if they can stay out of the box.
Montréal Canadiens
Montreal’s path has been special-teams driven early. In Game 1, Juraj Slafkovsky scored three power-play goals, including the overtime winner, in the 4-3 win. The Canadiens’ regular-season power play finished at 23.1%, and that’s been the cleanest way for them to create separation in this series.
At 5v5, Montreal’s regular-season shot profile is a concern against a team that can protect leads. The Canadiens averaged 26.3 shots for per game while allowing 27.8, so their best scoring environment tends to come when they’re drawing penalties and converting.
Matchup Keys
- Discipline and special teams: Montreal PP 23.1% vs Tampa PK 82.6%, plus Tampa’s season PIM total (1207) is far higher than Montreal’s (849).
- Shot volume baseline: Tampa (28.1 SF/G, 26.7 SA/G) vs Montreal (26.3 SF/G, 27.8 SA/G) points to Tampa having the more stable 5v5 process.
- Finish vs suppression: Tampa’s 2.79 GA/G is the best defensive number on either side; Montreal’s 3.06 GA/G leaves less margin if the penalty differential swings.
- Game state so far: The first two games went to overtime, which favors plus-money and one-goal game outcomes more than puck-line separation.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay: 41-41 ATS (puck line) in the regular season.
- Montreal: 46-36 ATS (puck line) in the regular season.
- Tampa Bay totals: 41-36 to the over in the regular season.
- Montreal totals: 44-35 to the over in the regular season.
- Tampa Bay was a strong road team in the regular season (24-12-5).
- Montreal was a solid home team in the regular season (24-15-2).
- Both games in this series have gone to overtime (2 of 2).
- Montreal owns the higher regular-season power play rate (23.1% vs 20.7%).
Best Bet
Over 5.5 (-132).
Both clubs played to over-leaning profiles in the regular season (Tampa 41-36 O/U, Montreal 44-35 O/U), and the special-teams setup supports goals if whistles pile up. Montreal’s power play (23.1%) has already shown it can swing games, and Tampa’s power play (20.7%) gets a favorable matchup against Montreal’s 78.2% penalty kill. With the series already producing a 7-goal game and a 5-goal game through two overtimes, 5.5 is still a playable number.
Predicted Score
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of Lightning 4, Canadiens 3.
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