Pittsburgh heads to Philadelphia down 2-0 in this Metropolitan Division first-round series, with the Flyers taking the first two games in Pittsburgh (3-2 and 3-0). Both clubs finished the regular season tied on 98 points, but they got there in very different ways: Pittsburgh leaned on offense and a top-tier power play, while Philadelphia lived in lower-event games.
The market is basically a coin flip on the moneyline, with Philadelphia a small home favorite. With the total sitting at 5.5, tonight’s handicap comes down to whether Pittsburgh’s shot volume and power-play edge finally break through against Dan Vladar and a Flyers team that has controlled pace so far.
Odds & Game Info
Odds as of 10:09 AM ET on April 22, 2026. Lines referenced from Bookmaker.eu.
| Spread (Puck Line) | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Flyers -1.5 (+210) | Flyers -115 | Over 5.5 (-120) |
| Penguins +1.5 (-265) | Penguins -104 | Under 5.5 (-102) |
Game time: 7:10 PM ET
Arena: Xfinity Mobile Arena (Philadelphia, PA)
Series: Flyers lead 2-0
Projected starting goalies (not officially confirmed): Stuart Skinner (PIT) vs Dan Vladar (PHI)
Injuries (as of this morning):
- Penguins: Peyton Kettles (D) OUT
- Flyers: Emil Andrae (D) day-to-day
- Flyers: Nikita Grebenkin (RW) OUT
- Flyers: Rodrigo Abols (C) on IR
Team Records
Regular-season records and splits are below.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 41-25-16 (Home: 20-13-8, Road: 21-12-8) | 5-5-0 | 47-37-0 | 48-36-0 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 43-27-12 (Home: 20-13-8, Road: 23-14-4) | 7-3-0 | 54-30-0 | 42-42-0 |
Team Stats
These season-long scoring and special teams rates frame the matchup.
| Team | Goals per game | Goals allowed per game | Power play % | Penalty kill % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 3.54 | 3.15 | 24.1% | 81.4% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 2.93 | 2.92 | 15.7% | 77.6% |
Recaps
Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh finished the regular season second in the Metro despite allowing 3.15 goals per game, largely because the offense (3.54 goals per game) and power play (24.1%) created margin. Shot volume is a core part of their identity: 28.6 shots for per game and 27.4 against.
Through two games in this series, the Penguins have not found 5-on-5 finishing, and they are now trying to solve a Flyers team that has pushed them into a tighter shot environment. If Pittsburgh is going to flip this series, it usually starts with drawing penalties and converting early, because Philadelphia’s penalty kill (77.6%) is the clearest efficiency gap on the ice.
Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia’s regular season profile was built around suppressing chances and keeping games from opening up: 25.5 shots for per game and 25.5 shots against, plus a goals-against rate in the 2.9 range. Even with a bottom-tier power play (15.7%), the Flyers have consistently been able to win in lower-event scripts.
Dan Vladar has been a stabilizer all year (2.42 GAA, .906 SV%), and he carried that into Game 2 with a 27-save shutout in a 3-0 win. With the series shifting home, the Flyers can lean into matchups and pace control, which has shown up in both results so far.
Matchup Keys
- Pittsburgh’s special teams edge vs Philadelphia’s discipline: Penguins PP (24.1%) vs Flyers PK (77.6%) is the most lopsided unit matchup in the game.
- 5v5 play-driving: Penguins 5v5 CF% 50.17 and xGF% 51.52 vs Flyers CF% 47.74 and xGF% 50.71. Pittsburgh can carry play, but Philadelphia has still been fine on expected goals share.
- Shot environment favors the under: Flyers games are consistently lower-volume (25.5 SF/G and 25.5 SA/G). If Philadelphia controls tempo again, 5.5 becomes a tight number for the over to clear.
- Goaltending baseline: Vladar’s season line (2.42 GAA, .906 SV%) is meaningfully stronger than Skinner’s (2.92 GAA, .888 SV%).
- Rest and travel spot: Both teams had a day off after Game 2 (April 20) and make a short trip into Philadelphia for Game 3, so fatigue is not a primary driver.
Betting Trends
- Flyers were 7-3-0 in their last 10 regular-season games; Penguins were 5-5-0.
- Flyers are 54-30-0 ATS this season-to-date.
- Penguins are 47-37-0 ATS this season-to-date.
- Flyers are 31-12-0 ATS away this season-to-date.
- Penguins are 28-13-0 ATS away this season-to-date.
- Flyers are 42-42-0 on totals this season-to-date.
- Penguins are 48-36-0 on totals this season-to-date.
- The first two games of this series finished under the total (3-2 and 3-0).
Best Bet
Under 5.5 (-102).
Philadelphia has a long-running track record of pulling opponents into lower shot volume, and that matters even more in a playoff game where teams tend to trade fewer rush chances. Vladar’s season-long results (2.42 GAA, .906 SV%) also support the idea that Pittsburgh needs either power-play conversion or sustained 5-on-5 finishing to carry this over. With the Flyers leading the series, game state also sets up for a tighter third period if Philadelphia plays from in front.
Predicted Score
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of Flyers 3, Penguins 2
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