Pittsburgh heads to Denver for a late one against Colorado, with the market pricing the Avalanche as a clear home favorite at -240 and laying -1.5 on the puck line. The total is sitting at 6.5, shaded slightly to the Over.
In the standings picture, Colorado enters at 44-12-9 (97 points) and has been dominant at Ball Arena (23-5-4). Pittsburgh is 33-18-15 (81 points) and has traveled well (17-9-7 road record), but this is a tough style matchup against a Colorado team that suppresses shots and lives in the offensive zone.
Both clubs last played on March 14, so neither is in a back-to-back. Pittsburgh continues a road swing, while Colorado returns home after a trip.
Odds & Game Info
One snapshot of the current market from BetOnline is below.
| Game Info | Spread (Puck Line) | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 16, 2026 (9:30 PM ET) Ball Arena (Denver, CO) | Colorado -1.5 (+104) Pittsburgh +1.5 (-128) | Colorado -240 Pittsburgh +195 | Over 6.5 (-118) Under 6.5 (-104) |
Odds as of 9:20 AM ET on March 16, 2026.
Team Records
Here’s a record snapshot for both teams entering puck drop.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS (Puck Line) | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 33-18-15 (Road: 17-9-7) | 4-3-3 | 37-23 | 29-30-1 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 44-12-9 (Home: 23-5-4) | 7-3-0 | 32-27 | 25-30 |
Team Stats
This table captures core scoring and special teams rates.
| Team | Goals per game | Goals allowed per game | Power play % | Penalty kill % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 3.36 | 2.91 | 25.0% | 84.2% |
| Colorado Avalanche | 3.75 | 2.43 | 16.1% | 82.7% |
Recaps
Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh’s last five games have featured tight margins and extra time: a 4-3 win at Utah (March 14), then losses at Vegas (6-2) and at Carolina (5-4 SO), plus a 5-4 OT win vs Boston and a 4-3 SO loss vs Philadelphia. Their season profile is built on special teams and solid shot suppression, allowing 27.2 shots against per game while generating 29.1 shots per game.
In net, Pittsburgh’s starting goalie was not confirmed as of this writing. The two goalies listed in the rotation are Stuart Skinner (20-13-8, 2.78 GAA, .891 SV%) and Arturs Silovs (14-9-8, 2.93 GAA, .894 SV%).
Injury watch for Pittsburgh includes: Samuel Girard (D, day-to-day), Kevin Hayes (RW, day-to-day), Ryan Graves (D, IR), Justin Brazeau (RW, out), and Jack St. Ivany (D, out). Evgeni Malkin is also out due to a five-game suspension.
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado’s last five: a 3-1 loss at Winnipeg (March 14), a 5-1 win at Seattle, a 4-3 loss vs Edmonton, a 3-2 SO win vs Minnesota, and a 5-4 SO win at Dallas. The Avalanche continue to drive games with volume and zone time, averaging 33.8 shots for per game while allowing just 26.5, paired with a 2.43 goals-against rate.
Colorado’s starting goalie was also not confirmed as of this writing. The two primary options listed are Scott Wedgewood (25-4-5, 2.16 GAA, .918 SV%) and Mackenzie Blackwood (18-8-1, 2.41 GAA, .908 SV%).
Injury watch for Colorado includes: Ross Colton (C, day-to-day), Logan O’Connor (RW, IR-LT), Gabriel Landeskog (LW, out), and Artturi Lehkonen (LW, out).
Matchup Keys
- Shot volume gap: Colorado averages 33.8 shots for per game (26.5 against), while Pittsburgh is at 29.1 for (27.2 against). If the Avs control the shot share, Pittsburgh’s +1.5 becomes harder to protect.
- Special teams leverage: Pittsburgh’s power play is 25.0% versus a Colorado penalty kill at 82.7%. Colorado’s power play (16.1%) runs into a Pittsburgh PK at 84.2%.
- 5v5 play-driving: Colorado has been an elite 5v5 possession team (57.1% CF%) with a strong 5v5 expected-goal share (57.0% xGF%). Pittsburgh is positive but closer to the pack (51.2% CF%, 52.5% xGF%).
- Price vs. win condition: At -240, Colorado is being priced around a 70.6% implied win probability. Pittsburgh likely needs either a special teams edge or an above-expectation goalie performance to justify the dog ticket.
Betting Trends
- Colorado is 23-5-4 at home.
- Pittsburgh is 17-9-7 on the road.
- Colorado is 7-3-0 in its last 10 games.
- Pittsburgh is 4-3-3 in its last 10 games.
- Colorado is allowing 2.43 goals per game, one of the strongest defensive profiles on the slate.
- The Avalanche are +7.3 shots per game on raw volume (33.8 for vs 26.5 against).
- Pittsburgh’s penalty kill (84.2%) has been a real stabilizer against teams that rely on power-play scoring.
- Both teams last played March 14, so fatigue should not be the deciding factor.
Best Bet
Under 6.5 (-104).
Colorado’s defense travels game to game because it is backed by shot suppression (26.5 shots against per game) and a strong goals-against rate (2.43). Pittsburgh also plays a lower-event defensive game than its scoring talent suggests, and its penalty kill (84.2%) matches up well with a Colorado power play converting at just 16.1%. If the Pens are without Evgeni Malkin, that further reduces Pittsburgh’s margin for turning this into a track meet.
Predicted Score
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of Colorado 4, Pittsburgh 2
21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.