Ottawa heads to Toronto with the road moneyline priced as a near coin-flip: Senators -115, Maple Leafs -104. The total is 5.5, shaded to the Over (-140).
In the Atlantic race, Ottawa (64 points) sits just ahead of Toronto (63 points), so this is a big four-point swing type of game for two teams living in the middle tier of the division.
Both clubs have leaned offense-first on the season, but they get there differently: Ottawa’s edge is special teams, while Toronto’s issue has been volume against and a bottom-tier goals-against profile.
Odds & Game Info
One quick table for the key lines and game details.
| Item | Ottawa Senators | Toronto Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Game Time / Arena | 7:00 PM ET • Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON) | |
| Moneyline | -115 | -104 |
| Spread (Puck Line) | -1.5 (+210) | +1.5 (-280) |
| Total | Over 5.5 (-140) • Under 5.5 (+114) | |
| Odds Timestamp | Odds as of 8:00 PM ET on February 27, 2026. | |
Team Snapshot
This table uses hockey equivalents: ORtg = Goals For/Game, DRtg = Goals Against/Game, Pace = (Shots For/Game + Shots Against/Game).
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace | Key Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa | 28-22-8 | 6-3-1 | 21-31 (puck line) | N/A | 3.30 | 3.23 | 53.0 | David Perron (IR, out) |
| Toronto | 27-23-9 | 3-6-1 | N/A | 32-22 (totals) | 3.28 | 3.39 | 58.9 | Chris Tanev (IR-LT, out) |
Recent Form
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa has played better hockey over the past 10 (6-3-1) and has been solid away from home (14-12-3). The profile is high-event but not shot-bleeding: 28.5 shots for per game and just 24.5 shots against per game.
Special teams are the swing factor. Ottawa’s power play is converting at 23.1%, but the penalty kill sits at 73.1%, which keeps the back door open in games that get whistle-heavy.
Goalie note: Linus Ullmark is listed day-to-day, so Ottawa’s starter is not a lock as of this writing.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto’s last-10 form (3-6-1) is the cold streak that shows up in the standings, even though they’ve banked points at home (16-9-6). The biggest red flag is defensive volume: 31.6 shots against per game, which pairs poorly with a 3.39 goals-against average.
The Leafs’ power play has been underwhelming at 18.8%, but their penalty kill has been a strength (83.7%). If Toronto is going to steady results, it usually starts with staying out of the box and forcing opponents to beat them at 5v5.
Projected goalie: Joseph Woll has been the listed matchup on most game previews, but always confirm closer to puck drop.
Matchup Keys
- Special-teams clash: Ottawa PP 23.1% vs Toronto PK 83.7%. If the Leafs stay disciplined, it reduces Ottawa’s cleanest scoring path.
- Shot volume mismatch: Toronto allows 31.6 SA/G, while Ottawa allows 24.5 SA/G. That gap matters if Toronto is chasing play for long stretches.
- Toronto’s pace runs hot: Leafs games average 58.9 total shots per night (SF/G + SA/G), which can turn a 5.5 total into a fragile number if goaltending is average.
- 5v5 control (season context): Ottawa has generally carried stronger 5v5 shot share than Toronto, and that aligns with Toronto’s negative goal differential (-12) versus Ottawa (+6).
- Goaltending uncertainty for Ottawa: if Ullmark sits, the handicap changes fast, especially at a short road price.
Betting Trends
- Ottawa is 6-3-1 in its last 10 games.
- Toronto is 3-6-1 in its last 10 games.
- Ottawa is 14-12-3 on the road.
- Toronto is 16-9-6 at home.
- Ottawa is 21-31 against the puck line this season.
- Toronto has a 32-22 over/under record this season.
- Ottawa’s power play (23.1%) is notably more efficient than Toronto’s (18.8%).
- Toronto’s shot suppression has been a problem (31.6 SA/G), especially compared to Ottawa (24.5 SA/G).
Best Bet
Ottawa moneyline (-115).
Ottawa has been the better team over the last 10 (6-3-1 vs 3-6-1) and brings the stronger special-teams scoring threat (23.1% power play) into a matchup where Toronto has been allowing a lot of volume (31.6 shots against per game). The price is fair for a team with a better goal differential (+6 vs -12) and a road record that has held up (14-12-3).
If Ottawa does not start Linus Ullmark, consider passing. The edge is much thinner without clarity in net.
Predicted Score
Ottawa 4, Toronto 3
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