Ottawa opens the Eastern Conference First Round on the road against Carolina on Saturday afternoon. The Hurricanes enter Game 1 as a moderate favorite, with the market asking you to pay a premium for the home side on the moneyline.
From a standings perspective, Carolina finished top of the Metropolitan and will have last change at Lenovo Center. Ottawa qualified out of the Atlantic and has been a tough out lately, but this is a step up in opponent quality and shot pressure.
Odds lean slightly to offense with Over 5.5 juiced, while Carolina’s puck line price suggests the market is weighing both the Hurricanes’ territorial edge and the risk of a one-goal playoff game.
Odds & Game Info
Game time: April 18, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET
Arena: Lenovo Center (Raleigh, NC)
Odds as of 7:50 AM ET on April 17, 2026 from BetAnything.
| Spread (puck line) | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| CAR -1.5 (+146) | OTT +1.5 (-180) | CAR -156 | OTT +130 | Over 5.5 (-142) | Under 5.5 (+116) |
Starting goalies: Not officially confirmed as of publish time.
Injury notes (not exhaustive): Ottawa lists Nick Jensen (knee) and Tyler Kleven (upper body) as out for the season. Carolina lists Logan Stankoven (illness) as out for the season.
Team Stats
| Team | Goals per game | Goals allowed per game | Power play % | Penalty kill % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators | 3.35 | 2.99 | 23.9% | 75.8% |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 3.55 | 2.88 | 24.9% | 80.5% |
Recaps
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa finished 44-27-11 with a 6-3-1 run over its last 10 and a positive goal differential. The profile is slightly unusual for a playoff team: Ottawa’s shot generation is modest (28.93 shots per game), but shot suppression is elite (24.40 shots allowed per game), which can travel if the breakout holds up under Carolina’s forecheck. Special teams are a swing factor, because Ottawa’s power play is strong (23.9%) but the penalty kill (75.8%) is the clear weak link in this matchup.
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina closed the regular season at 53-22-7 and 7-2-1 over its last 10, backed by one of the league’s best territorial profiles. The Hurricanes combined high volume on offense (32.18 shots per game) with the best-in-class ability to keep attempts off their net (23.93 shots allowed per game), which is typically the safest playoff indicator game to game. Carolina’s special teams are also solid (24.9% power play, 80.5% penalty kill), giving them fewer “must win” 5v5 minutes.
Matchup Keys
- Shot volume gap: Carolina (32.18 S/GP) vs Ottawa (28.93 S/GP). If this turns into extended-zone time, Ottawa’s low-event edge disappears quickly.
- Ottawa’s PK vs Carolina’s PP: Senators PK (75.8%) is the softest unit on the ice, and playoff whistle swings can decide a tight Game 1.
- Both teams suppress shots: Ottawa (24.40 SA/GP) and Carolina (23.93 SA/GP) can keep scoring chances limited if structure holds.
- Home ice and matchups: Carolina’s home record (29-10-2) and last change matter against Ottawa’s top-six creation.
- Goaltending uncertainty for Carolina: If Carolina rotates options, early series volatility rises compared to a locked-in No. 1.
Betting Trends
- Carolina finished with 113 points and a +55 goal differential, signaling consistent two-way separation.
- Ottawa finished with 99 points and a +30 goal differential, strong but meaningfully below Carolina’s baseline.
- Carolina at home: 29-10-2.
- Ottawa on the road: 21-15-5.
- Carolina enters on better recent form (7-2-1 last 10) than Ottawa (6-3-1 last 10).
- Carolina’s PP (24.9%) is higher than Ottawa’s PK (75.8%), creating a clear special-teams leverage spot.
- Carolina plays faster by shot count: 32.18 shots for per game, while Ottawa relies more on efficiency and suppression.
- Both teams’ season-level goals for plus goals against rates sit above 6.3 total goals per game, which explains the Over juice at 5.5.
Best Bet
Carolina Hurricanes moneyline (-156). Carolina’s edge is not just points, it’s repeatable process: a clear advantage in shot volume (32.18 S/GP) while also allowing the fewest shots per game (23.93 SA/GP). Ottawa’s path is real if it keeps the game low-event, but the Senators’ penalty kill (75.8%) is a liability against a Carolina power play near 25%. At this price, the moneyline is a cleaner entry than the puck line in a playoff Game 1 environment.
Predicted Score
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of Hurricanes 3, Senators 2
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