Ottawa hits Calgary as a road favorite, with the Senators priced at -162 and the Flames at +134. The puck line is tilted toward a one-goal Ottawa win (Calgary +1.5 at -196), and the market is shaded to the Under at 6.5 (-140).
In the standings context, Ottawa enters at 29-22-9 (67 points) and is still fighting for position in a crowded Eastern race. Calgary is 24-29-7 (55 points) and has been chasing consistency, especially offensively.
Ottawa’s profile is clear: above-average scoring (3.3 goals per game) paired with shaky defending and penalty killing. Calgary’s profile is the opposite: low scoring (2.45 goals per game) with a better defensive rate and a strong penalty kill, but a struggling power play.
Odds & Game Info
Odds as of 7:57 a.m. ET on March 5, 2026.
| Item | Ottawa Senators | Calgary Flames |
|---|---|---|
| Game Time | 9:10 p.m. ET (7:10 p.m. local) | |
| Arena | Scotiabank Saddledome (Calgary, AB) | |
| Moneyline | -162 | +134 |
| Spread (Puck Line) | -1.5 (+158) | +1.5 (-196) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (+114) | Under 6.5 (-140) | |
Recent Form
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa is 6-2-2 over its last 10, and the offense is doing its job at 3.3 goals per game on the season. The bigger story is how Ottawa games can swing on special teams: the power play is strong (23.8%), but the penalty kill has been a liability (72.4%), which keeps weaker opponents hanging around.
Defensively at even strength, Ottawa’s shot suppression has been a plus in results-based terms (24.6 shots against per game), but the overall goals allowed rate remains high (3.22 GA/G). That gap is a key handicap in deciding whether to lay a road favorite price.
Calgary Flames
Calgary is 3-5-2 in its last 10 and continues to fight uphill offensively (2.45 goals per game, last in the league). The Flames’ total profile leans defensive: 2.97 goals allowed per game, plus a penalty kill that has held up well (82.4%).
The problem is that Calgary’s power play has not been a release valve (16.1%). When the Flames are trailing, they have fewer ways to manufacture scoring quickly, which matters against an Ottawa team that can generate power-play chances and has top-end finishing.
Matchup Keys
- Special teams clash: Ottawa’s power play (23.8%) vs Calgary’s penalty kill (82.4%) is the most important “strength vs strength” point on the board. Calgary’s power play (16.1%) faces Ottawa’s weak penalty kill (72.4%).
- Calgary’s scoring floor: At 2.45 goals per game, Calgary often needs a low-event script to win. Falling behind early is a problem with this attack.
- Shot environment: Ottawa allows just 24.6 shots against per game, a strong indicator Calgary may not generate enough volume to offset its finishing limitations.
- 5v5 profile (context matters on sample timing): In tracked 5v5 data earlier in the season, Ottawa posted a 53.6% Corsi share and about a 55.2% expected-goals share through 53 games of that dataset, while Calgary’s 5v5 Corsi share was 51.9% through 56 games but with a negative expected-goals share (xGF% about 48.4%).
- Schedule spot: Ottawa last played March 3 in Edmonton (OT) and makes the short trip to Calgary. The Flames last played March 3 at home and stayed put, a small but real edge in routine.
Betting Trends
- Ottawa: 6-2-2 in its last 10 games.
- Calgary: 3-5-2 in its last 10 games.
- Calgary is 3-9 straight up in its last 12 games.
- Calgary is 2-6 straight up in its last 8 home games.
- Ottawa is 6-3 straight up in its last 9 games.
- Ottawa is 4-1 straight up in its last 5 games vs Calgary.
- The total has gone Under in 12 of Calgary’s last 18 games.
- The total has gone Over in 14 of Ottawa’s last 20 road games.
Best Bet
Under 6.5 (-140)
Calgary’s season-long scoring rate (2.45 goals per game) keeps this game one strong defensive stretch away from landing 4-2 or 3-2, even if Ottawa controls play. Ottawa’s penalty kill risk is real, but Calgary’s power play has not been efficient (16.1%) and Ottawa’s low shots-against profile can limit Calgary’s overall chance volume. With the Under already juiced, you are paying for a number that aligns with Calgary’s most common win condition and a plausible Ottawa road script.
Predicted Score
Senators 4, Flames 2
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