Home»NHL»New York Islanders vs Los Angeles Kings Pick & Prediction - March 05, 2026

New York Islanders vs Los Angeles Kings Pick & Prediction – March 05, 2026

Mike McDermott Mike McDermott
Mike McDermott
Mike McDermott
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Mike McDermott is a seasoned sports betting expert and iGaming strategist with over 20 years of real-world experience in casinos, sportsbooks, and online gambling operations. He’s been deeply involved in the evolution of the iGaming industry from the early days of dial-up poker rooms to today’s highly regulated digital platforms
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Sports Betting & iGaming Strategist, Updated March 5, 2026
Fact checked by: Alex Harper
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Alex Harper
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Alex Harper is a betting education editor with more than 10 years of experience covering sports betting concepts, wager types, and responsible gambling practices. His work focuses on explaining betting mechanics clearly and accurately, including point spreads, totals, futures, parlays, and live betting markets. Alex’s guides are written to help bettors understand risk, probability, and betting structure rather than promote betting behavior.
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The Islanders hit Los Angeles playing strong hockey lately (7-3-0 last 10), while the Kings come in trending the other way (3-6-1 last 10). New York sits 3rd in the Metropolitan Division, and Los Angeles is 6th in the Pacific, making this a key two points for a Kings team trying to climb back into the mix.

Market-wise, Los Angeles is a modest home favorite on the moneyline, with a 5.5 total that reflects two teams with below-average power plays and a lot of 5-on-5 play driving results.

Odds as of 7:58 AM ET on March 5, 2026.

Odds & Game Info

A quick look at the current betting menu for Islanders-Kings.

Game InfoSpread (Puck Line)MoneylineTotal
March 5, 2026
Start: listed around 9:30–9:40 PM ET
Arena: Crypto.com Arena (Los Angeles)		Kings -1.5 (+176)
Islanders +1.5 (-220)		Kings -138
Islanders +115		Over 5.5 (-106)
Under 5.5 (-114)

Recent Form

New York Islanders

New York has won 7 of its last 10, and the road profile is solid (18-12-3 away; 17-10-2 home). The most recent result is a concern for fatigue: a 5-1 loss at Anaheim on March 4, with the Islanders firing 43 shots but allowing 5 goals on 25 shots against.

Season-long scoring is middle of the pack (178 goals in 61 games, 2.92 per game), and special teams remain a drag: 15.8% power play with an 81.2% penalty kill. Shot volume is modest (27.39 shots for per game), and they’re slightly underwater in shots allowed (28.02 against per game).

At 5-on-5, their profile is more “win with finishing and goaltending” than pure chance control: 48.68% shot-attempt share (SAF%) and 47.25% expected-goal share (xGF%).

Los Angeles Kings

Los Angeles is 3-6-1 in its last 10 and has been especially shaky at home (9-14-7), despite a much better road mark (15-8-7). The Kings last played March 2 (a 4-2 home loss vs Colorado), which matters tonight because they’re coming in with extra rest.

The Kings’ season offense has been thin (151 goals in 60 games, 2.52 per game) and their special teams have not provided a bailout (16.8% power play, 75.3% penalty kill). Shot rates are low-event (27.40 for and 27.45 against per game).

The 5-on-5 process is the brighter sign: 51.71% shot-attempt share (SAF%) and 51.56% expected-goal share (xGF%), which is the type of underlying edge that can flip results if they get even-average finishing.

Matchup Keys

  • Rest advantage: Islanders are on a back-to-back (March 4 at Anaheim), while the Kings last played March 2. Even with minimal travel (Anaheim to Los Angeles), legs matter late.
  • Kings’ home struggles vs Islanders’ road steadiness: Los Angeles is 9-14-7 at home; New York is 18-12-3 on the road.
  • 5-on-5 edge goes to LA: Kings 51.56% xGF and 51.71% SAF at 5v5, versus Islanders 47.25% xGF and 48.68% SAF.
  • Special teams are unlikely to decide it: both power plays are below 17% (NYI 15.8%, LA 16.8%). The cleaner team at even strength usually wins these.
  • Goaltending/injury uncertainty: Kuemper is listed day-to-day (illness), and Varlamov is out, narrowing New York’s crease options. Confirmed starters matter more than usual in a 5.5 total game.
  • Islanders are 7-3-0 in their last 10 games.
  • Kings are 3-6-1 in their last 10 games.
  • Islanders are 18-12-3 on the road this season.
  • Kings are 9-14-7 at home this season.
  • Islanders are 31-31-0 against the puck line (ATS) this season.
  • Kings are 21-39-0 against the puck line (ATS) this season.
  • Islanders are 28-32-2 to the Over/Under this season (lean Under overall).
  • Kings are 26-33-1 to the Over/Under this season (lean Under overall).
  • Head-to-head last 10: Kings lead 8-2, with the Over going 3-6-1 (7 unders).

Best Bet

Islanders Moneyline (+115)

New York has been the more reliable team for months, and the road profile (18-12-3) lines up well against a Kings club that’s been a bad home bet (9-14-7) and is 21-39 ATS overall. The Islanders also enter in better form (7-3-0 last 10) while Los Angeles has struggled to generate consistent offense and is missing key scoring pieces (Fiala out for the season; Byfield listed out short-term). The back-to-back is real, but the travel is light, and the plus price is doing the heavy lifting here.

Predicted Score

Islanders 3, Kings 2

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