Home»NHL»New York Islanders vs Anaheim Ducks Pick - March 04, 2026

New York Islanders vs Anaheim Ducks Pick – March 04, 2026

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Senior Content Editor, Updated March 4, 2026
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The Islanders open a California back-to-back with a late one in Anaheim, while the Ducks are in a home back-to-back spot after playing Tuesday night.

Anaheim is priced near a pick’em at home, with the total set at 6.5. The matchup pits New York’s top-tier goals-against profile against Anaheim’s high-event results and strong shot volume.

Odds & Game Info

Odds as of 11:15 a.m. ET on March 4, 2026.

Game InfoDetails
Puck drop10:10 PM ET
ArenaHonda Center (Anaheim, CA)

This table lists the current market lines for spread, moneyline, and total.

MarketNew York IslandersAnaheim Ducks
Moneyline-114-105
Puck line-1.5 (+210)+1.5 (-265)
Total (6.5)Over (-118)Under (-104)

Team Snapshot

This table provides a quick comparison snapshot using season-to-date results and core team rates.

TeamRecordLast 10ATS (Puck Line)O/UORtg (GF/G)DRtg (GA/G)Pace (Shots For/G)Key Injury
New York Islanders35-21-5 (Road: 18-11-3)8-2-034-2727-31-12.922.7427.3Ryan Pulock (questionable); Jonathan Drouin (day-to-day); Kyle Palmieri (IR); Alexander Romanov (IR)
Anaheim Ducks33-23-3 (Home: 20-8-1)8-2-029-2737-223.223.5230.3Frank Vatrano (IR); Petr Mrazek (IR); Mikael Granlund (day-to-day); Troy Terry (day-to-day); Ryan Strome (day-to-day)

Recent Form

New York Islanders

New York brings strong form (8-2 in the last 10) and has been winning in different game scripts, including multiple overtime results in that stretch. The Islanders are still a low power-play efficiency team (15.8%), but the penalty kill (81.2%) and overall defensive baseline (2.74 GA/G) keep their floor high most nights.

Goaltending note: David Rittich is expected to start for New York in Anaheim (Ilya Sorokin is lined up for the second leg of the back-to-back in Los Angeles).

Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim is also 8-2 in its last 10, but the profile is more volatile: elite shot generation (30.3 shots per game) with a bottom-tier goals-against number (3.52 GA/G). Special teams are mid-to-lower tier (18.0% power play, 77.4% penalty kill), which can be an issue against teams that can win the field-position battle and draw penalties.

Rest note: the Ducks are on the second night of a home back-to-back (they played Tuesday night), so lineup and goalie usage are worth re-checking close to puck drop.

Matchup Keys

  • Islanders defense vs. Ducks finishing: New York allows 2.74 goals per game, while Anaheim is allowing 3.52. That gap is the clearest handicap in the matchup.
  • Shot volume edge Anaheim: Ducks are at 30.3 shots for per game vs. the Islanders at 27.3. If Anaheim owns the shot share, they can pressure New York’s depth defense.
  • Special teams clash: Islanders power play is 15.8% (bottom tier), but Anaheim’s penalty kill is 77.4%, creating a possible “get-right” spot for New York if the Ducks take penalties.
  • 5v5 play-driving is close: Corsi For % is roughly 50.5% (NYI) vs. 51.2% (ANA), so this is not a spot where the Islanders should be massively pinned at even strength.
  • Scheduling: Islanders have travel but are not on a back-to-back tonight; Ducks are on the back-to-back, which can show up in defensive coverage and penalties.
  • Islanders are 35-21-5 overall and 18-11-3 on the road.
  • Ducks are 33-23-3 overall and 20-8-1 at home.
  • Islanders are 8-2-0 in their last 10 games.
  • Ducks are 8-2-0 in their last 10 games.
  • Islanders are 34-27 against the puck line this season.
  • Ducks are 29-27 against the puck line this season.
  • Islanders have played to a 27-31-1 O/U record (lean under) this season.
  • Ducks have played to a 37-22 O/U record (lean over) this season.
  • Islanders penalty kill (81.2%) is materially stronger than Ducks penalty kill (77.4%).

Best Bet

Islanders moneyline (-114).
New York’s defensive profile (2.74 GA/G) is the most stable edge on the board, and it travels better than finishing. Anaheim can absolutely tilt the ice with shot volume, but the Ducks are still allowing 3.52 goals per game and enter in a back-to-back situation with several key forwards listed day-to-day. With Rittich expected for the Islanders and Anaheim’s goalie plan less clear on the second night of a back-to-back, the cleaner position is backing the better defensive team at near-even pricing.

Predicted Score

Islanders 4, Ducks 2

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