Game 5 of Canadiens vs. Lightning is set for Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa. The series is tied 2-2, so this one can swing home-ice momentum quickly.
Tampa Bay is priced as the favorite on the moneyline at -166, with Montréal coming back at +138. The total is 5.5, shaded to the over.
From a regular-season profile, these clubs finished on the same 106-point tier, but Tampa Bay paired the stronger goals-against mark with the better penalty kill, which matters in tight playoff games.
Odds & Game Info
Here are the current odds from Bet105. Odds as of 6:38 a.m. ET on April 28, 2026.
| Matchup | Spread (Puck Line) | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montréal Canadiens @ Tampa Bay Lightning | MTL +1.5 (-176) | TBL -1.5 (+142) | MTL +138 | TBL -166 | O 5.5 (-124) | U 5.5 (+102) |
| Game details | April 29, 2026 | 7:00 p.m. ET | Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, FL) | ||
Team Records
Regular-season records and recent form are below.
| Team | Record | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|
| Montréal Canadiens | 48-24-10 (Home: 24-15-2 | Road: 24-9-8) | 7-3-0 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 50-25-6 (Home: 26-13-1 | Road: 24-12-5) | 6-4-0 |
Team Stats
These are full-season per-game scoring, special teams, and shot volume indicators.
| Team | Goals per game | Goals allowed per game | Power play % | Penalty kill % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montréal Canadiens | 3.40 | 3.06 | 23.1% | 78.2% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 3.49 | 2.79 | 20.7% | 82.6% |
Additional context: Shots for/against per game, Montréal 26.29 / 27.84; Tampa Bay 28.11 / 26.70.
Recaps
Montréal Canadiens
Montréal’s regular season was driven by offense (279 goals) and a top-end power play (23.1%), but the shot profile was modest at 26.29 shots per game while allowing 27.84. That combination can work when the power play is converting, but it leaves less margin when whistles dry up.
Injuries to monitor: Noah Dobson (upper body) has been listed as out, and Patrik Laine has also been listed as out (abdomen). Starting goalie has not been officially confirmed as of the morning update, with Jakub Dobeš the expected option.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay brought the cleaner defensive baseline (229 goals allowed) plus the stronger penalty kill (82.6%), and it also outshot opponents on average (28.11 for, 26.70 against). That is a solid foundation for home playoff games where teams often trade fewer chances.
Injuries to monitor: Victor Hedman (personal) has been listed as out, Pontus Holmberg (upper body) has been listed as out, and Dominic James (leg) and Maxwell Crozier (abdomen) have been listed as out for the season. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the expected starter, but not officially confirmed.
Matchup Keys
- Special teams swing: Montréal PP 23.1% vs Tampa Bay PK 82.6%, and Tampa Bay PP 20.7% vs Montréal PK 78.2%.
- Shot volume edge: Tampa Bay generates more shots per game (28.11) than Montréal (26.29), and allows fewer (26.70 vs 27.84).
- Defensive separation: Tampa Bay allowed 2.79 goals per game vs Montréal at 3.06 over the full season.
- Road vs. home strength: Montréal’s road record (24-9-8) was strong, but Tampa Bay still posted 26 home wins in the regular season.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay finished the regular season 50-25-6, with a +57 goal differential.
- Montréal finished the regular season 48-24-10, with a +28 goal differential.
- Lightning home record: 26-13-1 (regular season).
- Canadiens road record: 24-9-8 (regular season).
- Montréal entered off a 7-3-0 run in its last 10 (regular season).
- Tampa Bay entered off a 6-4-0 run in its last 10 (regular season).
- Combined regular-season scoring rates point to 6.89 total goals per game (3.49 for Tampa Bay, 3.40 for Montréal), but playoff finishing often runs tighter than full-season averages.
- Tampa Bay’s PK (82.6%) was materially better than Montréal’s PK (78.2%), a meaningful separator when a game is decided by one special-teams goal.
Best Bet
Lightning moneyline (-166). Tampa Bay’s profile is the steadier one for a playoff home game: fewer goals allowed per game, a better penalty kill, and a positive shots edge on both sides of the puck. Montréal can absolutely win if its power play tilts the ice, but at 5-on-5 the Canadiens’ lower shot volume puts more pressure on finishing efficiency. If Hedman is indeed out, that narrows Tampa’s blue-line margin, but the team defense and special teams still grade well for a straight-up look.
Predicted Score
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of Lightning 3, Canadiens 2.
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