Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Second Round is set for Thursday, May 14, 2026 at 7:00PM ET, with the Montréal Canadiens traveling to face the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center.
Buffalo is a slight home favorite on the moneyline (-118), while Montréal sits at -102. The market is shading toward offense with Over 5.5 priced at -134.
From a standings perspective, Buffalo finished 1st in the Atlantic and Montréal finished 3rd in the Atlantic, and this series is tied 2-2 heading into Game 5.
Odds & Game Info
Odds as of 9:37 a.m. ET on May 13, 2026. Odds via BetAnything.
| Team/Bet | Spread (Puck Line) | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Sabres | -1.5 (+205) | -118 | — |
| Montréal Canadiens | +1.5 (-260) | -102 | — |
| Over 5.5 | — | — | -134 |
| Under 5.5 | — | — | +110 |
Arena: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, NY)
Starting goalies: Not confirmed for Game 5 at the time of writing.
Team Records
Here’s a snapshot of each team’s current record profile.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montréal Canadiens | 54-27-12 | 5-3-2-0 | 55-38-0 | 47-42-4 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 56-26-10 | 6-3-1-0 | 50-42-0 | 42-46-4 |
Home/Road splits (current): Buffalo is 28-12-6 at home; Montréal is 28-10-9 on the road.
Team Stats
These are regular-season per-game rates and special teams efficiency.
| Team | Goals per game | Goals allowed per game | Power play % | Penalty kill % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montréal Canadiens | 3.40 | 3.06 | 23.1% | 78.2% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 3.45 | 2.93 | 19.5% | 81.9% |
Shots for/against (regular season): Montréal 26.29 SF/G and 27.84 SA/G; Buffalo 28.12 SF/G and 29.07 SA/G.
Recaps
Montréal Canadiens
Montréal dropped Game 4 on May 12, losing 3-2 at home. They outshot Buffalo 30-22, went 1-for-7 on the power play, and killed 2 of 4 penalties.
Form-wise, Montréal is 5-3-2 over its last 10, but totals have trended strongly Under in that span (2 Overs, 7 Unders, 1 push).
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo won Game 4 on May 12 by a 3-2 final, getting the better of special teams despite being outshot 30-22. The Sabres went 2-for-4 on the power play and killed 6 of 7 penalties.
Buffalo is 6-3-1 in its last 10 games, with totals leaning slightly Under (4 Overs, 5 Unders, 1 push) over that stretch.
Matchup Keys
- Special teams clash: Montréal’s 23.1% power play runs into Buffalo’s 81.9% penalty kill, a top-end playoff swing factor if Montréal keeps drawing calls.
- Buffalo’s defense profile: The Sabres allowed 2.93 goals per game in the regular season, the better goals-against baseline in this matchup.
- Shot volume gap: Buffalo generated more shots per game (28.12) than Montréal (26.29), but Buffalo also allowed more shots per game (29.07 vs. Montréal’s 27.84).
- Road vs home stability: Montréal’s road record (28-10-9) has held up well, but Buffalo’s home mark (28-12-6) has been a consistent edge.
- Rest and travel: Both teams last played May 12 in Montréal, with a day off before Game 5. Buffalo returns home while Montréal makes the short trip to Western New York.
Betting Trends
- Montréal is 5-3-2 in its last 10 games.
- Buffalo is 6-3-1 in its last 10 games.
- Montréal is 2-7-1 to the total in its last 10 games.
- Buffalo is 4-5-1 to the total in its last 10 games.
- Montréal is 55-38-0 ATS overall.
- Buffalo is 50-42-0 ATS overall.
- Buffalo is 42-46-4 to the total overall (more Unders than Overs).
- Buffalo is 28-12-6 at home.
- Montréal is 28-10-9 on the road.
Best Bet
Under 5.5 (+110)
Montréal’s recent games have skewed heavily to the Under (2-7-1 last 10), and Buffalo’s regular-season goals allowed rate (2.93 GA/G) supports a lower-scoring baseline. Even with a 5.5 total, this series has shown it can tighten quickly when the game state turns into special teams and late-game defense. At plus money, the Under is the cleaner value look than laying juice on Over 5.5.
Predicted Score
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of Buffalo 4, Montréal 3
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