Minnesota heads to Las Vegas on Friday night in a near pick’em, with the Wild priced at -113 and the Golden Knights at -106. The market is also shading toward a lower-scoring game, with Under 6.5 juiced to -134.
From a standings lens, this is a high-leverage Western matchup: Minnesota (36-16-10) is third in the Central (82 points), while Vegas (29-19-14) is sitting atop a tight Pacific race (72 points).
Vegas is in a tough scheduling spot after playing an overtime game Thursday, while Minnesota last played Tuesday and comes in with the rest edge.
Odds & Game Info
Odds as of 9:21 a.m. ET on March 6, 2026. Lines via BetAnything.
| Game Info | Details |
|---|---|
| Matchup | Minnesota Wild @ Vegas Golden Knights |
| Date / Time (ET) | March 6, 2026 / 10:09 p.m. ET |
| Arena | T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV) |
| Listed starting goalies | MIN: Filip Gustavsson; VGK: Akira Schmid |
| Spread (Puck Line) | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota -1.5 (+220) | Minnesota -113 | Over 6.5 (+110) |
| Vegas +1.5 (-280) | Vegas -106 | Under 6.5 (-134) |
Team Records
This snapshot focuses on current form and betting results.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS (Puck Line) | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | 36-16-10 | 7-2-1 | 30-28 | 36-26 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 29-19-14 | 4-5-1 | 24-38 | 34-25-1 |
Team Stats
These are season-to-date efficiency indicators for scoring and special teams.
| Team | Goals per game | Goals allowed per game | Power play % | Penalty kill % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | 3.31 | 2.85 | 25.9% | 78.0% |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 3.29 | 3.08 | 25.7% | 81.2% |
Recaps
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota’s recent run has been built on finishing and results: 7-2-1 in the last 10 while averaging 4.0 goals scored and 2.9 goals allowed per game in that span. Season-long, the Wild are scoring 3.31 per game with a top-10 defense by goals allowed (2.85).
At even strength, Minnesota’s 5v5 expected goal share sits at 49.02%, and the shot profile is a concern: 28.82 shots for per game and 30.18 shots against per game. The power play has been a real separator at 25.9%, but the penalty kill (78.0%) can be stressed by teams that earn volume opportunities.
In net, Filip Gustavsson is listed as the starter (22-10-6, 2.51 GAA, .911 SV%).
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas is winning the territorial battle more consistently than the scoreboard shows. The Golden Knights are allowing just 24.9 shots against per game, a strong foundation for controlling game state, and their 5v5 expected goal share is 51.78%, the better underlying profile in this matchup.
Results have been choppier lately (4-5-1 last 10), and the season defensive efficiency is more mid-pack than the shot suppression suggests (3.08 goals allowed per game). Offensively, Vegas is scoring 3.29 per game with a 25.7% power play, and the penalty kill has been solid at 81.2%.
Akira Schmid is listed as the starter (16-8-6, 2.48 GAA, .894 SV%).
Matchup Keys
- Rest advantage: Vegas played an overtime game on March 5, while Minnesota last played March 3.
- Shot suppression vs volume allowed: Vegas allows 24.9 shots against per game, while Minnesota allows 30.18, which can tilt time in zone and drawn penalties.
- Special teams swing: Minnesota PP (25.9%) vs Vegas PK (81.2%) is a strength-on-strength matchup; Vegas PP (25.7%) has a cleaner edge vs Minnesota PK (78.0%).
- 5v5 quality edge: Vegas holds the stronger 5v5 xGF% (51.78%) compared to Minnesota (49.02%).
- Goaltending form risk: Gustavsson’s listed season save rate (.911) is notably higher than Schmid’s (.894), which matters in a near pick’em.
Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 7-2-1 over its last 10 games.
- Vegas is 4-5-1 over its last 10 games.
- Minnesota has gone Over the total 36 times this season (36-26 O/U).
- Vegas has gone Over the total 34 times this season with 1 push (34-25-1 O/U).
- Minnesota is 30-28 against the puck line this season.
- Minnesota is 18-9-3 on the road this season.
- Vegas is 14-8-7 at home this season.
- The last 10-game scoring profile: Minnesota 4.0 GF/game, 2.9 GA/game; Vegas 3.2 GF/game, 3.1 GA/game.
- The total has gone Over in 6 of Vegas’ last 9 games against Minnesota.
Best Bet
Minnesota Wild moneyline (-113). Minnesota has been the steadier team in results and prevention (2.85 GA/game) while Vegas is in a schedule pinch coming off an overtime game the night before. If the listed goalies hold, Gustavsson’s season efficiency (.911 SV%) is also a meaningful edge in a price range where one or two extra saves often decides the ticket. Vegas’ shot suppression is elite, but the injury list pushes this closer to Minnesota’s preferred style: fewer clean looks against, more leverage on special teams.
Predicted Score
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of Minnesota Wild 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2
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