Minnesota opens the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs against Dallas in Game 1, with the Stars holding home ice after finishing 50-20-12 (26-11-4 home). The Wild were a strong road team (23-14-4 away) and finished 46-24-12, so this one profiles as a tight, low-margin matchup.
Dallas is priced as a small home favorite on the moneyline, while the market is dealing 5.5 with plus-money on the under. With both clubs owning top-tier power plays and above-average defensive profiles, special teams and goaltending selection are the swing factors.
Odds & Game Info
Odds via BetOnline as of 7:50 AM ET on April 17, 2026.
This table lists the current market for spread (puck line), moneyline, and total.
| Spread (Puck Line) | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| MIN +1.5 (-245) | DAL -1.5 (+194) | MIN -102 | DAL -118 | O 5.5 (-130) | U 5.5 (+106) |
This game is scheduled for 5:30 PM ET (4:30 PM local) at American Airlines Center in Dallas.
Team Records
This table summarizes overall record, last 10 form, and betting results.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | 46-24-12 | 6-4-0 | 42-40 | 45-34 |
| Dallas Stars | 50-20-12 | 7-2-1 | 32-50 | 41-40 |
Team Stats
This table captures the core scoring and special teams profile for each side.
| Team | Goals per game | Goals allowed per game | Power play % | Penalty kill % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | 3.27 | 2.87 | 25.2% | 79.8% |
| Dallas Stars | 3.33 | 2.71 | 28.6% | 80.3% |
Recaps
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota closed the regular season 46-24-12 and went 23-14-4 away, which matters immediately with Game 1 in Dallas. The Wild averaged 3.27 goals per game while allowing 2.87, with a 25.2% power play and 79.8% penalty kill.
In their last five games, Minnesota went 2-3: W 3-2 vs ANA (4/14), L 6-3 @ STL (4/13), L 2-1 @ NSH (4/11), L 5-4 @ DAL (4/9), W 5-2 vs SEA (4/7). From a volume standpoint, the Wild were at 29.2 shots for per game and 29.4 shots against per game.
Injuries to monitor: Quinn Hughes (D) day-to-day (est. return Apr 18) and Zach Bogosian (D) day-to-day (est. return Apr 18). Charlie Stramel (C) is listed out (est. return Sep 15).
Dallas Stars
Dallas enters as the home side after going 50-20-12 overall and 26-11-4 at American Airlines Center. The Stars profile as a shot-suppression team (26.2 shots against per game) that plays lower-event hockey by volume (25.3 shots for per game), while still scoring 3.33 goals per game and allowing 2.71.
The Stars bring strong special teams into this series: a 28.6% power play and 80.3% penalty kill. They also finished the regular season on a five-game heater: W 4-3 SO @ BUF (4/15), W 6-5 @ TOR (4/13), W 2-0 vs NYR (4/11), W 5-4 vs MIN (4/9), W 4-3 OT vs CGY (4/7).
Injuries to monitor: Miro Heiskanen (D) day-to-day (est. return Apr 18). Roope Hintz (C) is listed out (est. return Apr 22), a meaningful hit to Dallas down the middle.
Matchup Keys
- Shot volume vs shot suppression: Minnesota (29.2 SF/G) generates more looks than Dallas (25.3 SF/G), but Dallas also gives up fewer (26.2 SA/G) than Minnesota (29.4 SA/G).
- Special teams edge at the top end: Dallas’ power play (28.6%) is a tier above Minnesota’s (25.2%), and both penalty kills are in the same range (DAL 80.3%, MIN 79.8%).
- Goaltending decision is a real variable for Minnesota: Wallstedt (2.61 GAA, .916 SV%) vs Gustavsson (2.69 GAA, .904 SV%) changes Minnesota’s baseline.
- Dallas without Hintz: With Roope Hintz listed out (est. return Apr 22), Dallas’ top-six matchup options and transition threat are reduced.
- Discipline matters with two efficient power plays: Minnesota (636 PIM) and Dallas (703 PIM) both take enough penalties that a single undisciplined period can flip Game 1.
Betting Trends
- Dallas finished 26-11-4 at home.
- Minnesota finished 23-14-4 on the road.
- Dallas is 7-2-1 in its last 10 games.
- Minnesota is 6-4-0 in its last 10 games.
- Wild are 45-34 to the Over/Under this season.
- Stars are 41-40 to the Over/Under this season.
- Wild are 42-40 against the puck line (ATS) this season.
- Stars are 32-50 against the puck line (ATS) this season.
- Both teams enter Game 1 with a power play above 25% (MIN 25.2%, DAL 28.6%).
Best Bet
Under 5.5 (+106).
Dallas plays a lower-volume shot profile (25.3 SF/G) and also suppresses opponent volume well (26.2 SA/G), which supports fewer total scoring chances even in a matchup with elite top-end talent. On the Minnesota side, either Wallstedt (2.61 GAA, .916 SV%) or Gustavsson (2.69 GAA, .904 SV%) gives them a path to hold up defensively, and Roope Hintz being listed out (est. return Apr 22) lowers Dallas’ offensive ceiling. With Game 1 often dictated by structure and matchups, plus-money on Under 5.5 is playable.
Predicted Score
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of Dallas 3, Minnesota 2
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