Minnesota heads to Denver facing elimination with Colorado up 3-1 in this second-round series. The market is pricing the Avalanche as the clear favorite at home, with Colorado laying a steep moneyline and the key puck line sitting at -1.5.
Colorado finished 1st in the Central in the 2025-26 regular season, while Minnesota was 3rd. The Avalanche have carried that gap into the series so far, winning three of four and controlling the shot volume in each of their three wins.
Odds & Game Info
One quick look at the board (odds from Bookmaker).
| Market | Minnesota Wild | Colorado Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| Spread (Puck Line) | +1.5 (-148) | -1.5 (+120) |
| Moneyline | +172 | -210 |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-106) | Under 6.5 (-114) |
Odds as of 9:41 a.m. ET on May 13, 2026.
- Date: May 13, 2026
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Arena: Ball Arena (Denver, CO)
- Series: Colorado leads 3-1
- Rest/Travel: Both teams last played May 11. Minnesota travels to Denver on one day off (no back-to-back).
- Starting goalies: Not confirmed as of publish time.
- Minnesota injuries: Joel Eriksson Ek (out), Jonas Brodin (out), Pat Maroon (questionable).
- Colorado injuries: Artturi Lehkonen (questionable), Sam Malinski (questionable).
Team Records
Here’s how each team has performed this season (including playoffs).
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | 51-28-13 | 5-4-1 | 46-46-0 | 52-36-4 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 62-17-11 | 9-1-0 | 47-43-0 | 38-50-2 |
Team Stats
This table uses 2025-26 regular-season per-game rates.
| Team | Goals per game | Goals allowed per game | Power play % | Penalty kill % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | 3.27 | 2.87 | 25.2% | 79.8% |
| Colorado Avalanche | 3.63 | 2.40 | 17.1% | 84.6% |
Recaps
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota’s path is narrow right now because it is missing a key center (Eriksson Ek) and a top defenseman (Brodin), and the goaltending results in this series have been volatile. Through four games, the Wild have allowed 5, 5, and 9 goals in three losses, with their lone win coming 5-1 at home in Game 3.
Game 4 flipped on execution late, but the underlying problem remained shot volume: Minnesota finished with 21 shots on goal in the 5-2 loss, and now must find a way to generate more sustained offense at 5v5 without opening up the back end.
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado has won three games in this series and each win came with a clear shots edge (including 34-21 in Game 4). Offensively, the Avalanche have been able to turn Minnesota turnovers and broken coverage into rush chances, and they have also been comfortable adding empty-net separation when leading late (two empty-netters in the 5-2 Game 4 final).
Goaltending is a key handicap point for Game 5: Colorado has used both Wedgewood (Games 1-3) and Blackwood (Game 4 start), and the team’s overall defensive profile is strong enough that an average start is often sufficient if the shot share stays tilted.
Matchup Keys
- Shot volume gap: Colorado averaged 33.7 shots for and 26.1 shots against per game in the regular season; Minnesota was 29.2 shots for and 29.4 shots against.
- 5v5 play-driving: At 5v5, Colorado’s expected-goal share (xGF%) has been meaningfully higher than Minnesota’s, which matches what we’ve seen in the series shot counts.
- Special teams swing: In this series, Colorado has had the more efficient special teams profile (power play and penalty kill), while Minnesota’s PK has been a major leak.
- Availability matters: Minnesota being without Eriksson Ek and Brodin compresses lineup options, especially for matchups and late-game situations on the road.
- Empty-net equity: With Minnesota down 3-1 in the series, any one-goal deficit late is likely to turn into an extended empty-net situation, which boosts Colorado’s -1.5 cover chances.
Betting Trends
- Colorado is 9-1 in its last 10 games.
- Minnesota is 5-4-1 in its last 10 games.
- Colorado has won 3 of the first 4 games in the series, and each of Colorado’s wins has been by 3+ goals.
- Totals have gone Over in 3 of the first 4 games this series.
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the Over/Under is 5-5.
- Minnesota is 52-36-4 to the Over this season (including playoffs).
- Colorado is 38-50-2 to the Under this season (including playoffs).
- Minnesota is 46-46 ATS this season (including playoffs).
- Colorado is 47-43 ATS this season (including playoffs).
Best Bet
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (+120).
Colorado’s win condition in this matchup has been repeatable: tilt the ice with shot volume, keep Minnesota’s 5v5 chances limited, and let the Wild chase the game late. With Minnesota down 3-1 in the series, the empty-net dynamics are real equity for the puck line, and Colorado already has three multi-goal wins in four games this series. At plus money, the -1.5 is a cleaner way to back the Avalanche than paying the full -210 on the moneyline.
Predicted Score
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of Colorado 4, Minnesota 2
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