Home»NHL»Buffalo Sabres vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction - March 05, 2026

Buffalo Sabres vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction – March 05, 2026

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Senior Content Editor, Updated March 5, 2026
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Buffalo visits Pittsburgh on Thursday night with both teams sitting 2nd in their divisions and priced like a near coin flip. Buffalo is a slight road favorite (Sabres -115, Penguins -104) with a 6.5 total shaded to the under.

The Sabres have been the more consistent side recently (7-2-1 last 10) and they’ve won four straight since returning from the break. Pittsburgh’s form is still solid (6-2-1-1 last 10), but the lineup looks different without Sidney Crosby.

Odds as of 7:48 a.m. ET on March 5, 2026.

Odds & Game Info

One quick table with the lines you provided for tonight’s matchup.

Game InfoDetails
MatchupBuffalo Sabres @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Date / TimeMarch 5, 2026, 7:10 p.m. ET
ArenaPPG Paints Arena (Pittsburgh, PA)
MarketBuffaloPittsburgh
Spread (Puck Line)-1.5 (+210)+1.5 (-265)
Moneyline-115-104
Total (6.5)Over -105Under -115

Starting Goalies

No confirmed starters were available as of this morning. Recent usage notes:

  • Buffalo: Alex Lyon has started 3 of the last 5 (including March 3).
  • Pittsburgh: Stuart Skinner started March 3; Arturs Silovs started March 1.

Team Snapshot

This table converts the requested “ORtg/DRtg/Pace” fields into hockey equivalents (GF/G, GA/G, and shots per game).

Injury Updates (Notable)

  • Sabres: Jordan Greenway (out), Conor Timmins (out), Justin Danforth (out), Jiri Kulich (out).
  • Penguins: Sidney Crosby (out), Jack St. Ivany (out), Blake Lizotte (day-to-day), Caleb Jones (suspension), Filip Hallander (out status listed).

Recent Form

Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo is 7-2-1 in its last 10 with a four-game win streak since the break, including wins at New Jersey (2-1), at Florida (3-2), at Tampa Bay (6-2), and vs Vegas (3-2). That stretch has also been shot-volume dependent game to game, so the profile is more “finish and defend leads” than pure run-and-gun.

Special teams have trended up lately: Buffalo has scored a power-play goal in 8 of the last 10 games, going 8-for-32 (25%) over that span.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh is 6-2-1-1 in the last 10, but a lot of the recent value has come from defense-first games: a 2-1 loss at Boston on March 3, a 5-0 win vs Vegas on March 1, and multiple totals landing under in this window (4-6 O/U last 10).

Without Crosby, Pittsburgh’s margin for error narrows if the power play does not create separation, especially against top-end penalty kills.

Matchup Keys

  • Special-teams strength on both sides. Pittsburgh’s power play is 26.09% and Buffalo’s penalty kill is 82.9%. Buffalo’s power play is 19.89% and Pittsburgh’s penalty kill is 84.6%.
  • Shot profile points to different game scripts. Pittsburgh averages 29.23 shots for and 27.23 shots against per game, while Buffalo averages 27.97 shots for and 30.15 shots against.
  • Discipline matters more than usual. If this game turns into a power-play volume contest, it favors Pittsburgh’s higher-conversion unit, but both PK units are top-tier by season rate.
  • Goaltending form is a swing factor. Buffalo’s Alex Lyon is at a .914 SV% on the season; Pittsburgh’s Silovs is .900 and Skinner is .893 (season marks).
  • Rest and travel are reasonable for both. Buffalo last played Tuesday (March 3) at home and travels to Pittsburgh; Pittsburgh last played Tuesday (March 3) in Boston and returns home.
  • Buffalo is 18-11-3 on the road this season.
  • Pittsburgh is 15-8-7 at home this season.
  • Buffalo is 7-2-1 in its last 10 games.
  • Pittsburgh is 6-2-1-1 in its last 10 games.
  • Buffalo is 5-5-0 to the total in its last 10.
  • Pittsburgh is 4-6-0 to the total in its last 10.
  • Head-to-head last 10: Pittsburgh is 7-3.
  • Head-to-head last 10: totals are 4 overs, 5 unders, 1 push.
  • Pittsburgh has recently played multiple tight, low-event games (including 2-1 and 4-1 type finals in the last 10 log).

Best Bet

Under 6.5 (-115)

Both teams bring elite penalty-kill rates (PIT 84.6%, BUF 82.9%), and Pittsburgh’s recent results have skewed toward lower totals (6 unders in the last 10). Buffalo’s recent winning streak has also included several 2-1, 3-2, and 3-2 type games, which fits an under at 6.5 even if one team gets to three. With Crosby out and Pittsburgh leaning into tighter games, the cleanest angle is the under rather than trying to split a near pick’em moneyline.

Predicted Score

Sabres 3, Penguins 2

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