Every team in the AFC North is 2-1, and Thursday night one of them gets to sit alone at the top. It’s fitting that the first swing at separation comes from Pittsburgh and Cleveland, two teams that can’t seem to score.
The market has the Steelers as a small road favorite with one of the lowest totals on the Week 4 board. I agree with where the number is. I just think the matchup up front tips it toward Pittsburgh.
Steelers at Browns: Odds and Game Info
- Kickoff: Thursday, Oct. 1, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland
- TV: Prime Video
- Records: Steelers 2-1, Browns 2-1
- Spread: Steelers -2.5 (-115 to -120), Browns +2.5 (-105 to +100)
- Total: 37.5 to 38.5
- Moneyline: Steelers -145 to -148, Browns +124 to +125
The spread has sat at 2.5 all week, but the price on Pittsburgh has crept up at some books. That matters. At -2.5, a three-point Steelers win cashes. If you like Cleveland, you’d love to find +3, and you probably won’t.
Pittsburgh -2.5 with a 38.5 total implies roughly Steelers 20.5, Browns 18. Expect a grinder.
Two Offenses That Haven’t Figured It Out
Here’s how each team got to 2-1:
| Week | Steelers | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beat Atlanta 20-13 | Lost at Jacksonville 34-10 |
| 2 | Lost at New England 20-3 | Won at Tampa Bay 23-19 |
| 3 | Beat Cincinnati 30-27 | Beat Carolina 21-18 |
Neither team is dominating anyone. All four wins came by seven points or fewer.
The offensive numbers are almost identical, and not in a good way:
- Both teams average 4.6 yards per play.
- Pittsburgh converts 32.4 percent of its third downs. Cleveland converts 30.6 percent.
- The Steelers score 17.7 points per game. The Browns score 18.0.
Pittsburgh has the slightly better defense on paper, allowing 305.7 yards per game compared with Cleveland’s 344.3. The Steelers are also plus-2 in turnover margin, while the Browns are minus-1.
Is Pittsburgh’s Offense Fixed?
Probably not. The Steelers ranked last in the NFL in offensive EPA per play through two weeks. They scored three points at New England. Then they dropped 30 on Cincinnati, and suddenly everyone wants to believe.
Aaron Rodgers was good against the Bengals, throwing for 292 yards and three touchdowns. Jaylen Warren was even better, with 127 rushing yards and 176 yards from scrimmage.
But look closer at how that game was won. Pittsburgh recovered a muffed punt to set up a fourth-quarter score, needed a late field goal and sealed it on a Derrick Harmon strip-sack. That’s a win, but it isn’t a sign the offense has turned a corner.
For the season, Rodgers is 66 of 113 for 700 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions, with an 81.0 passer rating. The targets are spread out: Roman Wilson, DK Metcalf and Pat Freiermuth each have 11 catches. There’s no true No. 1 option that scares a defense.
Warren is the engine. He’s averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has 10 catches for 110 yards. With Rico Dowdle missing practice all week with a toe injury, Warren should get a big workload again.
Deshaun Watson Is Playing Better Than You Think
I didn’t expect to write that. Watson is 56 of 82 for 587 yards, five touchdowns and one interception, with a 104.1 passer rating. He’s run for 105 yards on 24 carries, and he’s led back-to-back comeback wins as an underdog.
The weapons are better too. Rookie Denzel Boston has nine catches for 195 yards and two scores as the deep threat. Tight end Harold Fannin Jr. has 14 catches, two touchdowns and caught the go-ahead score against Carolina.
Still, the Browns offense stalls far too often. Against Carolina it opened the second half with three straight three-and-outs. At Tampa Bay it had 59 yards at halftime.
The running game is the biggest issue. Quinshon Judkins has 124 yards on 42 carries, about 3.0 per attempt. Cleveland averages 3.5 yards per rush as a team. When you can’t run, you end up in third-and-long, and that’s where this game will be decided.
The Matchup That Decides It: Watt and Highsmith vs. a Banged-Up Browns Line
This is the reason I lean Pittsburgh.
T.J. Watt has 3.5 sacks. Alex Highsmith has three. Pittsburgh has eight sacks as a team.
Now look at what they’re rushing against. Cleveland rebuilt its offensive line this offseason with five new starters, and injuries are piling up:
- Starting center Elgton Jenkins is in the concussion protocol and did not practice. He’s expected to miss the game, and Luke Wypler would start in his place.
- Right tackle Tytus Howard is limited with a knee injury. He’d be the one lining up across from Watt.
- Guard Teven Jenkins is limited with a back injury.
- Rookie left tackle Spencer Fano will see plenty of Highsmith.
A backup center on a short week, a hobbled right tackle and a rookie on the left side is a bad combination against this pass rush. The Browns have already allowed nine sacks. If they can’t run the ball and fall behind the chains, Watson is going to take hits.
Cleveland has a pass rusher of its own in Mason Graham, who has four sacks from the interior. That’s the Browns’ best chance to rattle a 42-year-old quarterback. Pittsburgh has allowed eight sacks, so the Steelers line isn’t a brick wall either.
Pittsburgh’s Secondary Is the Concern
The Steelers have real questions at cornerback. Jalen Ramsey has a broken wrist and practiced on a limited basis with a cast. He said he’d do everything he can to play, but his effectiveness is fair to question. Brandin Echols is coming off a concussion and was also limited.
The good news is Joey Porter Jr., who was listed as a full participant after missing Week 3.
If Ramsey plays with a club on his hand and Echols isn’t cleared, Cleveland will test the depth with Boston downfield and Fannin underneath. That’s the Browns’ best path to points. Check the final injury designations before kickoff.
The Short Week
Both teams played at home Sunday. Cleveland gets to stay home, while Pittsburgh has the short trip across the turnpike.
Some will argue that Pittsburgh’s veteran roster won’t bounce back as well on a short week. I think the travel edge is small, and I don’t put much weight on it. Both teams have new head coaches this year, Mike McCarthy in Pittsburgh and Todd Monken in Cleveland, so I’m ignoring old Thursday night trends from previous staffs.
The Series and the Last Meeting
Pittsburgh leads the all-time series 83-65-1. But Cleveland won the most recent meeting 13-6 last December, and these teams are 6-6 in their last 12.
That 13-6 final tells you what these games tend to look like. Expect field position, defense and very few touchdowns.
Weather
The Cleveland forecast calls for mild temperatures around 75 degrees at kickoff, falling into the low 70s. It’ll be cloudy, with winds around 5 to 10 mph. Rain is in the forecast Thursday night, but most outlooks have it arriving late in the evening or overnight.
If the showers move up and hit during the game, that helps the under. Check the hourly forecast Thursday afternoon.
Why I Only Lean Under
Both offenses average 4.6 yards per play and struggle on third down. The defenses are the better units on both sides, and the last meeting finished 13-6. It all points to a low-scoring game.
The problem is the number. At 38.5, the books already know all of that. Cleveland’s three games have finished with 44, 42 and 39 points, all above this total. With both secondaries dealing with injuries, a couple of big plays could push this over.
My number lands right around 37. That’s a lean, not a bet, unless the rain shows up early.
Steelers vs. Browns Pick and Prediction
This game comes down to which offense avoids bad down-and-distance, and I trust Pittsburgh to do that more. The Steelers have Warren, a running game that averages 4.3 yards per carry and a pass rush built to punish a banged-up Browns line.
Cleveland deserves credit for back-to-back wins. But it has done it with late drives after long stretches of nothing, and that’s hard to repeat against Watt and Highsmith.
Here’s how I’d play it:
- Steelers -2.5: My best bet, ideally at -115 or better. If it moves to -3, I’d still play it, but I’d consider the moneyline instead.
- Under 38.5: A slight lean. I’d only play it if the rain looks like it’ll arrive during the game.
- Jaylen Warren props: Worth a look if Dowdle is ruled out, but wait for the posted numbers before jumping in.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Browns 17
Best Bet: Steelers -2.5 (-115 or better)
Odds are subject to change. Please bet responsibly.