Kansas City is 2-8 against the spread in its last 10 games, went 6-11 against the number last season, and is laying 6.5 at home to a team that just gave up 506 yards and 202 on the ground. Both of those things are true, and the market has decided the second one matters more. I am not sure it does.
The Colts (0-1) visit the Chiefs (1-0) on Sunday Night Football, September 20, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. Bookmaker.eu has Kansas City -6.5 (-110), Indianapolis +6.5 (-106), the total at 47 with the over -102 and under -114, and the moneyline Chiefs -293, Colts +249.
The number
Kansas City opened -6.5 and has not moved off it. The total has come down, from 48 at the open to 47 at Bookmaker and 46.5 at some shops. Several books are charging -115 to -120 on the Chiefs side, which is the market leaning toward 7 without actually getting there.
That half point is the entire conversation. A seven-point Chiefs win, which is the most common margin in football, covers -6.5 and pushes -7. If you like Kansas City, you are getting the best possible version of that number. If you like the Colts, you are getting the hook on the wrong side of the most important number in the sport, and you are getting it at -106.
At -6.5 and 47, the implied score is Chiefs 26.75, Colts 20.25. The moneyline at -293 needs the Chiefs to win about 75 percent of the time to break even. Kansas City is the more likely winner. That does not make -293 a good price.
What Week 1 actually told us
Kansas City beat Denver 31-10 on Monday night and it was not close. The Chiefs ran 38 times for 220 yards, held the ball for 33:42, converted 9 of 17 third downs, and held Denver to 176 total yards, 61 rushing, and 2 of 12 on third down. Kenneth Walker III, signed away from Seattle after his Super Bowl MVP, ran 23 times for 173 yards with a 60-yard touchdown and added a receiving score. The team’s own review credited him with 14 broken tackles, the most of any player in Week 1.
Patrick Mahomes, nine months off a torn ACL and LCL with no preseason snaps, went 15-of-27 for 184 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He started 2-of-12. He averaged under five air yards per attempt. He ran for a 15-yard touchdown on the first drive to answer the mobility question, and Andy Reid said the point was to “knock a little rust off.” Eric Bieniemy called a run-first game and Mahomes was a passenger for most of it.
Indianapolis lost 41-23 at home to Baltimore and was down 28-6 after a quarter. The Ravens outgained the Colts 506 to 251. Derrick Henry ran 24 times for 144 and three scores, Lamar Jackson threw for 324 on 25 attempts, and Zay Flowers had 150 receiving yards by halftime. Colts linebackers finished with zero tackles for loss. Jaylon Carlies played 42 snaps and did not record a tackle.
Daniel Jones, in his first game since tearing his Achilles in Week 14 last year, went 19-of-31 for 166 yards, one touchdown, one interception, two sacks and nine hits. That is 4.5 yards per attempt and a 72.8 rating. On play-action he was 2-of-5 for 15 yards after completing 71 percent of those throws last season. Jonathan Taylor ran 19 times for 98 and two touchdowns while trailing the entire game, and lost a fumble that turned into Ravens points.
Both box scores need a discount. Denver’s offense was, in Bo Nix’s own words, not good, and the Broncos missed tackles at a rate that is bottom-three since 2018. Baltimore is the best offense the Colts will see all year. Neither result travels cleanly to Sunday.
Walker against a run defense that could not tackle Derrick Henry
This is the Chiefs’ case and it is a good one. Indianapolis gave up 5.5 yards a carry to Baltimore with a linebacker corps that did nothing, and the coaching staff has already admitted the problem was alignment and communication as much as talent. The Ravens hurried to the line and the Colts were not set. So this week the green dot moves from safety Cam Bynum to linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither, and rookie Bryce Boettcher, six tackles on 23 snaps, may take Carlies’ job.
Walker just broke 14 tackles against a defense that was supposed to be good. Kansas City ran on 57 percent of its snaps. Unless the Colts’ front seven is a different unit six days later, Bieniemy is going to keep handing it off until Indianapolis proves it can stop it, and the Chiefs can win this game without Mahomes throwing for 200.
The other half of the Kansas City argument is pressure. The Chiefs’ review had them pressuring Nix on 51.5 percent of his dropbacks, with four sacks, and Nix went 4-of-13 for 11 yards under duress. Jones just took nine hits from Baltimore and his offensive line got a D+ from the local beat. Last November at Arrowhead, Kansas City pressured Jones on 40.6 percent of his dropbacks and forced three-and-outs on the Colts’ final four possessions of a game Indianapolis led 20-9 entering the fourth quarter. That loss started the losing streak that is now eight games.
Why I am still not laying it
Start with what Kansas City is right now. This is a team that went 6-11 against the spread last year, missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014, and beat a bad offense in Week 1 with a quarterback who threw for 184 yards. The under is 12-1 in Kansas City’s last 13 games. Mahomes’ first drive looked great; his first quarter did not. Left tackle Josh Simmons has a back injury, did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, and an undrafted rookie started at left tackle in Week 1. Chris Jones (calf) and L’Jarius Sneed (knee) were both limited. Chamarri Conner is out. That is the interior of the pass rush and two of the top three corners with question marks.
Now the Colts. Jones is not the quarterback he was in Week 1. Before the Achilles, he threw for 3,101 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight picks with a 100.2 rating in 13 starts, and Indianapolis was one of the best first-down offenses in the league through 13 weeks. One game against Baltimore’s front, in his first live action in nine months, is a data point and not a verdict. Alec Pierce played only 32 of 54 snaps coming off ankle and heel surgery and still led the team with 61 yards. Taylor averaged 5.1 a carry against a Ravens defense that was pinning its ears back all night.
The secondary is the part nobody is talking about. Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward Sr. are the outside corners, and the Colts held Kansas City to 23 points in that overtime game last year with Mahomes throwing 352. The problem in Week 1 was the slot, where Justin Walley got worked by Flowers, and the middle of the field, which is exactly where Rice, Kelce and Walker on swing routes want to live. That is the Chiefs’ way to points. It is also a narrower path than “Mahomes at Arrowhead” implies right now.
Add the numbers. Indianapolis went 2-0 against the spread as an underdog of 6.5 or more last year. The Colts are 4-3-1 on the road against the number and covered or pushed all three of the last three meetings with Kansas City. The under is 7-1 in the last eight games between these teams. Andy Reid’s teams are still Andy Reid’s teams, but the version of this offense that hung 30 on everybody is not the version on the field yet.
Injuries, Thursday version
Kansas City: Simmons (back) and Conner (knee) did not practice either day. Jones (calf) and Sneed (knee) limited both days. Mahomes, Rice, Delane, Gillotte and R Mason Thomas full. Delane, the sixth overall pick who hurt his shoulder on Denver’s first drive after picking off Nix, is on track to play.
Indianapolis: Pierce went from full Wednesday to no practice Thursday with the heel, which reads like maintenance for a player coming off surgery, but Friday’s designation decides it. Ashton Dulin (ankle) and D.J. Giddens (knee) did not practice. Grover Stewart missed Thursday for a personal matter, not an injury. Anthony Richardson (groin) was back to full after missing Wednesday, which matters only if Jones takes another nine hits. Cam Taylor-Britt is back from a one-game suspension.
The two that move the number: Pierce for Indianapolis, because without him the Colts cannot threaten anyone deep, and Chris Jones for Kansas City, because a limited or absent Jones changes the interior pressure that broke the Colts last November.
Situational
Indianapolis played Sunday and has seven days. Kansas City played Monday and has six, but stays home for a second straight week. Call it even. The forecast is unsettled: one feed has thunderstorms and 75 degrees, another has mostly dry and 73, and the National Weather Service had showers likely with a possible thunderstorm as of Friday. I would not build an under on a rain icon. I would check wind and storm timing Sunday afternoon.
The pick
Colts +6.5 at -106.
I expect Kansas City to win. I expect Walker to have a good night and I expect the Colts to spend stretches of the third quarter looking like they did against Baltimore. What I do not expect is a Chiefs offense averaging five air yards per attempt, with a rookie possibly at left tackle and Chris Jones at less than full strength, to produce the two-score margin the market is asking for against a defense that held it to 23 in this building ten months ago. The Colts have Taylor, they have two real outside corners, and they have a quarterback whose 13-game sample before the injury was a 100 rating. Getting 6.5 with the hook on the right side of 7, at -106, is the bet I want.
On the total, I lean under 47 but the -114 on that side at Bookmaker is the market telling you it agrees, and I do not want to pay it. If it drifts to 47.5 or the under price comes back toward -105, play it. Kansas City’s last 13 games say under, the last eight of this series say under, and neither offense is pushing the ball downfield right now.
If you are looking for a prop, Taylor over 86.5 rushing yards is the number that fits the way I see the game. He got 98 on 19 carries while trailing by three scores against a better run defense than this one.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Colts 20.
Best bet: Colts +6.5 (-106).
Odds from Bookmaker.eu, retrieved September 18, and subject to change. Confirm Friday’s game designations, especially Pierce, Chris Jones and Simmons, and the Sunday night forecast before kickoff.