Both teams are 3-0. Both average 29.3 points per game. Both have already won a division game. On the surface, Sunday’s AFC West showdown in Las Vegas looks like a coin flip.
Look under the hood and it isn’t. Kansas City has been the better football team through three weeks. The Raiders have been the better story. At 4.5 points, I’m siding with the better team.
Chiefs at Raiders: Odds and Game Info
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas (indoors)
- TV: CBS
- Records: Chiefs 3-0, Raiders 3-0
- Spread: Chiefs -4.5 (-112), Raiders +4.5 (-108)
- Total: 47.5
- Moneyline: Chiefs -220, Raiders +180 to +184
- ATS this season: Chiefs 2-1, Raiders 3-0
The market implies roughly Chiefs 26, Raiders 21.5. Opening numbers vary by book, with some starting at 5.5 and others at 4.5, so I wouldn’t read too much into any movement.
The key is that 4.5 sits between the two most important numbers in football. A three-point Chiefs win doesn’t cover, and neither does a four. But a touchdown win does, and I think that’s the more likely result.
The game is indoors, so weather isn’t a factor.
Same Record, Very Different Teams
| Week | Chiefs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beat Denver 31-10 | Beat Miami 27-13 |
| 2 | Beat Indianapolis 33-30 (OT) | Won at Chargers 26-14 |
| 3 | Won at Miami 24-10 | Won at New Orleans 35-27 |
The points are identical, but the way the teams got there is not.
| Per Game | Chiefs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 416.3 yards | 311.7 yards |
| Yards per play | 6.2 | 4.8 |
| Yards per carry | 5.0 | 3.2 |
| Yards allowed per play | 4.6 | 5.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 45.9% | 41.0% |
| Turnover differential | +3 | +5 |
Kansas City is gaining 1.4 more yards per play than Las Vegas and allowing less. That’s a big gap. The Raiders have matched the Chiefs on the scoreboard by forcing turnovers and making the most of short fields.
That’s a real skill, but it’s also the least predictable part of football from week to week. You don’t want to bet on it repeating.
The Raiders’ Start Deserves Credit, With an Asterisk
I’m not taking anything away from what Klint Kubiak has done. The Raiders won three games all of last season, and they’ve already matched that total. Kubiak came over after coordinating the offense for the Super Bowl champion Seahawks, and his team has found ways to win.
But look at how they won. Last week at New Orleans, the Raiders trailed by 11 in the third quarter as underdogs. They came back because the Saints turned it over four times in the fourth quarter. Las Vegas leads the league with nine takeaways.
The schedule has also helped. Miami, the Chargers and New Orleans don’t compare to the defending juggernaut from Kansas City. This is the Raiders’ first real test.
Kirk Cousins Has Been Efficient
Cousins has been exactly what Las Vegas needed. He’s 62 of 92 for 661 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions, with a 107.2 passer rating. He’s thrown three touchdowns in every game.
The offense works the short and intermediate areas, and it just got its best weapon back. Brock Bowers missed the first two games with a knee injury, then caught 10 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown against the Saints. His season numbers don’t show it yet, but Bowers changes this offense. He gives Cousins a reliable target when nothing is open outside.
Tre Tucker has been the big-play receiver, with 11 catches for 189 yards. The Raiders also just lost Jack Bech to injured reserve, so the receiver room is thin behind him.
The Raiders Can’t Run the Ball
This is the biggest problem for Las Vegas, and it’s why I don’t trust the Raiders to hang around.
Ashton Jeanty has 206 yards on 63 carries, just 3.3 yards per attempt. He’s also caught 13 passes and scored twice as a receiver, but the ground game hasn’t worked. As a team, the Raiders average 3.2 yards per carry.
Mike Washington Jr. has been more explosive, with 102 yards on 15 carries and a 36-yard touchdown against the Saints. Kubiak said he’s earned more work.
If the Raiders can’t run, Cousins ends up in third-and-long against a Chiefs defense allowing 4.6 yards per play and 178 net passing yards per game. That’s a tough way to keep up.
Kenneth Walker III Has Changed Kansas City
Last year’s Chiefs went 6-11 and lost nine one-score games. Patrick Mahomes was the entire offense, and he got hurt.
This year’s version is built differently. Kenneth Walker III leads the NFL with 360 rushing yards at 5.5 per carry. He’s also caught 11 passes and scored four total touchdowns. The team credits him with 38 forced missed tackles through three games.
Walker has made the play-action game lethal. Against Miami, Mahomes went 11 of 12 on play-action throws for 183 yards and a touchdown. When defenses have to respect the run, Mahomes gets easy throws behind the linebackers.
Mahomes, back from knee surgery, is 67 of 98 for 812 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Travis Kelce leads the team with 231 receiving yards, and Rashee Rice has 190.
The Matchup That Decides It: Walker vs. the Raiders’ Run Defense
Las Vegas allows 4.5 yards per carry and 116.3 rushing yards per game. That’s the soft spot, and it plays right into Kansas City’s hands.
If Walker gets going on early downs, the Chiefs control the clock and open up play-action. The Raiders’ pass rush won’t matter much if Mahomes isn’t facing obvious passing downs.
That pass rush is the Raiders’ best counter. Las Vegas has 10 sacks compared with Kansas City’s four. If the Raiders can stop Walker and force long-yardage situations, they have a chance to make Mahomes uncomfortable.
Left tackle Josh Simmons is the injury I’m watching most. He missed last week with a back issue, and his availability matters against this edge rush.
Injuries to Watch
For Kansas City, Simmons (back) and safety Chamarri Conner (knee) both missed Week 3. Andy Reid said there’s a “good chance” Conner returns, which would help against Bowers. Chris Jones and L’Jarius Sneed were limited last week but played. Cornerback Mansoor Delane is back to a full workload.
For Las Vegas, Bowers is the key name. Watch his knee through the week. Receiver Jack Bech is on injured reserve, and safety Treydan Stukes was out last week with a concussion.
Ignore the Last Meeting
The Raiders won 14-12 in January, but don’t put any weight on that. Kansas City started Chris Oladokun and Shane Buechele at quarterback in that game. Mahomes against Cousins is a completely different matchup.
The Bye Week Factor
Kansas City has its bye next week. That removes any lookahead concern. The Chiefs can empty the tank knowing they get two weeks to recover.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Pick and Prediction
The Raiders are a great story, and Allegiant Stadium will be loud. But the numbers say Kansas City is simply the better team. The Chiefs move the ball more efficiently, stop the run better and have the best player on the field.
Las Vegas has won with turnovers and late comebacks. That can work against a Saints team that falls apart in the fourth quarter. It’s much harder against Mahomes and Andy Reid.
Here’s how I’d play it:
- Chiefs -4.5: My best bet. I’d play it up to -5, but I’d pass at -6 or higher.
- Total: A slight lean to the under at 47.5. Both teams like to run the ball, which keeps the clock moving. But I don’t love it enough to bet.
- Kenneth Walker III rushing yards: Worth a look once props are posted, given the Raiders’ soft run defense.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Raiders 20
Best Bet: Chiefs -4.5
Odds are subject to change. Please bet responsibly.