The look-ahead line for this game in May was Bills -2.5. It is Bills -7 now at every major shop, and the Novig exchange has it at 7.5. A 4.5-point move on a game that is still two weeks old in the standings is the market saying it badly misjudged one of these teams over the summer. It did, and it was the Chargers.
Los Angeles (0-2) visits Buffalo (2-0) on Sunday, September 27, at 1 p.m. ET on FOX. It is the second regular-season game in the new Highmark Stadium and the Chargers’ first road trip of the season after two home losses to Arizona and Las Vegas. The Chargers lead the all-time series 25-14-2 and have won four of the last six, but the last meeting was a 24-22 Bills win at SoFi in December 2023 in which Los Angeles forced three turnovers and still lost on a Tyler Bass field goal with 28 seconds left.
The number
Consensus board as of Monday: Bills -7, moneyline Bills -310 to -370 and Chargers +250 to +267, total 50.5.
The 7 versus 7.5 distinction matters. At -7, a touchdown-and-extra-point Bills win pushes. At -7.5 it loses. If you are laying it, shop for the 7 or a -6.5 that may show up midweek. If you are taking the Chargers, the 7.5 at Novig is the one you want.
At -7 and 50.5, the implied score is Bills 28.75, Chargers 21.75. Ticket counts have Buffalo with 71 percent of spread bets and 96 percent of moneyline bets. That is bets, not money.
What Buffalo has done
Josh Allen has nine touchdowns in two games. He is 40-of-60 for 582 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions, a 125.8 rating, plus 92 rushing yards and four rushing scores. Against Detroit on Thursday night he went 20-of-31 for 248 and three touchdowns and ran 14 times for 69 and two more, and the Bills led 21-0 and 27-10 at half with 299 yards before the break. He is the first player ever with five passing and three rushing touchdowns through two weeks.
The offense around him is functioning. James Cook has 192 rushing yards at 5.6 a carry and went for 135 against the Lions, 100 of it in the first half. Dalton Kincaid has 12 catches for 225 yards and is the leading receiver. Khalil Shakir has seven for 88. DJ Moore had five for 100 in Week 1 before his shoulder injury. Buffalo is converting 57.1 percent of third downs and averaging 427.5 yards and 6.9 per play.
The defense is the part nobody in Buffalo is bragging about. Thirty-one points allowed in each game. Houston had 381 yards and 26 first downs and held the ball for 36 minutes in Week 1. Jared Goff threw for 327 and four touchdowns and Amon-Ra St. Brown had 142 yards in a game the Lions never led. Greg Rousseau has four sacks, including two in each game, and Deone Walker had seven pressures and three batted passes filling in for Ed Oliver, but the Bills are allowing 368 yards a game and have given up six touchdown passes.
What Los Angeles has done
Fourteen points in each game. The Chargers are averaging 289 yards and 5.0 per play, converting 31.8 percent of third downs, and sitting at minus-4 in turnover margin. Justin Herbert is 32-of-54 for 401 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions with six sacks taken and a 71.6 rating.
The Raiders game is the one to study, because the Chargers were winning it. Los Angeles led 14-10 in the third quarter and lost 26-14. Herbert threw an early pick. Omarion Hampton fumbled after crossing midfield while trailing by three. Herbert threw another interception on the next drive. A third-and-1 snap hit a receiver in motion. A holding penalty in the end zone produced a safety. Joe Alt, the right tackle, had three false starts on top of the hold. Khalil Mack afterward: “Pretty much beating ourselves back-to-back weeks. Can’t do that in this league.”
The offensive line is the reason. Center Tyler Biadasz tore his ACL in a joint practice in August. Left guard Kayode Awosika hurt his fibula against the Raiders. Trevor Penning filled in at both guard spots. Trey Pipkins missed Week 2 with a knee. Right guard Cole Strange left for evaluation and came back. Rashawn Slater’s knee status is still uncertain. This is the unit that gave up a franchise-record 60 sacks last year and let Herbert get pressured on 56.8 percent of his dropbacks in a wild-card loss where the offense scored three points. The offseason fixes are on injured reserve.
The defense has been fine. The Chargers are allowing 2.8 yards per carry, held the Raiders to 57 rushing yards and 305 total, and Derwin James had 10 tackles. It has not created a takeaway when the offense needed one, and it gave up a 40-yard touchdown and a 42-yard gain to Kirk Cousins on the drives that decided the game.
The matchups
Buffalo’s pass rush against that line is the whole bet. Rousseau, Bradley Chubb, T.J. Parker and Walker, with Oliver possibly back, against a rookie center, a backup guard, a hurt guard and a right tackle who committed four penalties last week. Herbert has been sacked six times in two games by Arizona and Las Vegas fronts that are not this. Long-yardage downs are where Herbert’s interceptions have come from, and Buffalo’s front creates long-yardage downs.
Allen against the Chargers’ defense is the counterweight. Los Angeles can stop Cook; it has been the best run defense in the league by yards per carry through two weeks. It cannot stop Allen from scrambling on third-and-7, and it has not faced a quarterback who scores from the 2-yard line himself. The Chargers’ run defense makes this a passing-down game, and Allen has thrown zero interceptions in 60 attempts.
Herbert against Buffalo’s coverage is where the Chargers’ cover case lives. The Bills have given up six passing touchdowns, and Ladd McConkey (eight catches, 117 yards and a score, playing through a rib injury), David Njoku, Tre’ Harris and Oronde Gadsden II are a better group than the Chargers’ point totals suggest. If Herbert gets time and holds onto the ball, 21 points is reachable, and 21 covers against 28.
The tight ends are the matchup inside the matchup. Kincaid is the Bills’ No. 1 target. Njoku and Gadsden are the Chargers’ safety valves against pressure. Whichever defense handles the tight end better probably wins the third-down battle, and the third-down battle is 57 percent against 32 right now.
Injuries
Buffalo: DJ Moore, AC joint sprain from the Detroit game, day-to-day and expected to practice this week per Ian Rapoport. Ed Oliver, hip, hurt in Thursday warmups and did not play, also day-to-day with a chance for Sunday. T.J. Sanders has not played yet. Ty Johnson is out. First official report is Wednesday.
Los Angeles: Awosika (fibula), Pipkins (knee), Strange (evaluated and returned), safety Elijah Molden (hamstring) and cornerback Deane Leonard (abdomen) all need Wednesday’s report. Biadasz is on IR. Slater is unconfirmed. McConkey played through the rib injury and should not be written up as out. Kickoff is 10 a.m. body-clock for a team flying east for the first time this year, and the Bills have had 10 days since their Thursday game to the Chargers’ seven.
Weather for Sunday is not yet on the National Weather Service board. Late September in Orchard Park is usually fine, but check it Friday.
The case for the Chargers
They went 11-6 last year with a defense that finished top-10 in points and top-five against the pass, and that defense still shows up. The two losses were close until the fourth quarter, and both were self-inflicted in ways that are not guaranteed to repeat. Herbert has been a road underdog with a bad line before and covered. Buffalo’s defense is giving up 31 a game, and the Bills’ two wins came against a Houston team that moved the ball at will and a Detroit team that scored 31 while trailing all night. The under is 5-0 in the Chargers’ last five games as a road dog of this size. Three separate handicapping pieces this week took Los Angeles at +7, and the model that gives Buffalo 75 percent still says the Chargers are the value at the moneyline price.
I take the defensive argument seriously. What I cannot get past is the offensive line. The Chargers’ problem is not one bad game; it is that the players who were supposed to fix a 60-sack line are hurt, and the ones replacing them just committed a safety and three false starts against Las Vegas. Buffalo’s front is the best they have seen.
The pick
Bills -7, and I would rather have -6.5 if it shows up.
Buffalo is scoring 38 a game with a quarterback who has not thrown an interception, coming off 10 days’ rest, at home, against an offense that has produced 14 points twice and is now starting backups at two interior line spots against a pass rush with six sacks in two games. The Chargers’ defense keeps this from being a blowout, and I expect it to hold Cook down and keep the Bills in the high 20s rather than the 40s. But the Chargers need Herbert to have a clean game behind that line, and nothing in two weeks suggests he will get one. A 28-17 kind of afternoon is the most likely shape, and that covers 7.
What beats me: the Chargers’ defense forces two takeaways, Herbert gets his 350 against a Bills secondary that has been carved up twice, and this becomes 27-24 with Buffalo kneeling it out. The 24-22 game at SoFi in 2023 is the template. It is a real outcome, and it is why I want -6.5 more than -7.5.
On the total, I lean under 50.5. The Chargers’ games have gone 40 and 40, the under is 5-0 in their last five as a road dog, and their run defense is good enough to make Buffalo drive the field rather than hit chunk plays. The over case is Buffalo’s own defense, which has been in two shootouts, and I would not argue with anyone who plays the Bills’ team total over instead of the game total.
Prediction: Bills 28, Chargers 17.
Best bet: Bills -7 (shop for -6.5). Lean: Under 50.5.
Odds are consensus from the major U.S. books and Novig as of September 21 and subject to change. Confirm Wednesday’s injury reports, especially Moore, Oliver, Awosika and Pipkins, before kickoff.