A week ago, the Giants were favored in this game. Now Arizona is laying points at MetLife Stadium.
That flip tells you what happened to New York in the last eight days. Jaxson Dart is done for the regular season. Brian Burns tore his ACL. And the offense hasn’t scored a touchdown in two games.
The market has moved toward the Cardinals, and I think it’s right. But this is a 1-3 team in its third road game in four weeks, so I’m not getting carried away.
Cardinals at Giants: Odds and Game Info
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 1 p.m. ET
- Stadium: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
- TV: CBS
- Records: Cardinals 1-2, Giants 2-1
- Spread: Cardinals -1 to -2
- Total: 44.5
- Moneyline: Cardinals -111 to -130, Giants -107 to +110
- Opening line: Giants -2.5, total 43.5
That’s a big swing for a regular-season game. It’s consistent with what happened to the Giants’ roster, but I wouldn’t read it as anything more than that.
Shop carefully. In a game this close, Arizona -1 and Arizona -2 are different bets. If it drifts to -3, a field-goal win only pushes, and I’d pass.
At Arizona -2 with a 44.5 total, the market is projecting roughly Cardinals 23, Giants 21.
Where These Teams Stand
| Week | Cardinals | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Won at Chargers 26-14 | Beat Dallas 28-20 |
| 2 | Lost to Seattle 31-7 | Lost at Rams 28-6 |
| 3 | Lost at San Francisco 36-30 | Beat Tennessee 12-7 |
Arizona opened the season as the NFL’s biggest Week 1 underdog and beat the Chargers by 12 in Mike LaFleur’s first game as a head coach. Since then, the Cardinals have allowed 67 points in two division games.
The Giants looked like a different team in Week 1. Dart went 23 of 29 for 230 yards and three touchdowns in John Harbaugh’s debut, and New York converted nine of 10 third downs. Then Dart went down early at the Rams, and the offense has scored 18 points since.
The Giants’ Quarterback Problem
This is the biggest factor in the game.
Jameis Winston will start. Across his appearances this season, he’s 25 of 49 for 229 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. That completion rate is the worst in the league.
New York traded for J.J. McCarthy on Monday, but he’s on a crash course in the playbook. Harbaugh said learning the protections will take time. Don’t expect McCarthy to play Sunday unless Winston is a disaster.
To be fair to Winston, last week’s 12-7 win over Tennessee was played in a downpour. The Giants ran 33 times and threw only 22 passes, and rookie kicker Dominic Zvada scored all 12 points. The weather shaped that game plan, so I’m not assuming another touchdown-free day.
Still, the Giants average just 4.4 yards per play and 153 net passing yards per game. Winston has to be better for New York to win this.
Brian Burns’ Injury Changes the Giants’ Defense
Losing Burns hurts even more than it looks on paper. The Giants have just one sack all season, and now their best edge rusher is gone.
Kayvon Thibodeaux moves into the starting role, but he’s been quiet, with four pressures and no sacks on 91 pass-rush snaps. Abdul Carter is the more dangerous player, and New York needs him to take over.
Beyond the pass rush, the Giants’ defense has other issues. Opponents are converting 54.5 percent of their third downs, and New York allows 4.7 yards per carry.
The scoring defense (18.3 points per game) looks better than the underlying numbers. That usually doesn’t last.
Arizona’s Offense Is Built for This Matchup
Jacoby Brissett isn’t flashy. He’s 82 of 117 (70.1 percent) for 652 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. His 5.6 yards per attempt tells you it’s a short-passing offense.
That’s exactly what works against a team that can’t get home. Brissett has one of the lowest career interception rates in NFL history, and he won’t hand New York short fields.
His two favorite targets are clear:
- Trey McBride: 26 catches for 211 yards and two touchdowns. He had nine catches for 75 yards at San Francisco.
- Michael Wilson: 18 catches for 163 yards. He saw 17 targets last week and caught 11 for 89 yards and a score.
Marvin Harrison Jr. gets the headlines, but he has just four catches this season. McBride and Wilson are where the volume is.
The run game is modest. Rookie Jeremiyah Love has 160 yards on 41 carries, though he ran for 90 against the 49ers. The Giants’ soft run defense could give him room to find a rhythm.
The Case for the Giants
I’m not blind to the risk here. Arizona’s defense has been bad.
The Cardinals allow 6.4 yards per play, among the worst in the league, and 27 points per game. San Francisco put up 437 yards on them last week. They also lost starting cornerback Will Johnson for the season with a neck injury and had to promote Starling Thomas V.
That’s New York’s path. If Cam Skattebo and Najee Harris can run the ball, it takes pressure off Winston and forces Arizona to crowd the box. Skattebo has taken over the lead role, playing more than 76 percent of the snaps last week. Malik Nabers, Darnell Mooney and tight end Isaiah Likely, who has two touchdowns, would then get one-on-one chances against a weakened secondary.
It wouldn’t take a great game from Winston to flip a near pick’em. It would just take an average one.
Travel, Trends and History
This is Arizona’s third road game in four weeks, and a 1 p.m. Eastern start feels like 10 a.m. to the Cardinals. That’s a small edge for the Giants, and part of why I’m not laying a full field goal.
Both teams are 2-1 against the spread. The Giants are 2-0 ATS at home, and Arizona covered both of its road games as an underdog. This week, the Cardinals have to win the game, not just stay close. Both teams have gone under the total in two of three games.
The Giants lead the all-time series, 81-46-2. New York won the last meeting 31-28 in 2023, but Arizona had won its three previous trips to MetLife. With new head coaches and new quarterbacks on both sides, I don’t weigh any of that.
Weather
The early forecast calls for highs around 65 degrees, overcast skies, showers and about 9 mph of wind. The Giants just played a rain-soaked game at home, and another wet afternoon would favor the running game and the under.
Check the hourly forecast Sunday morning.
Why I Like the Under
Both offenses average 4.4 yards per play. Neither team has a big-play passing game, and the Giants have scored one touchdown in their last eight quarters.
Arizona wants to move the ball with short throws, which burns clock. New York wants to run the ball and protect its quarterback, which also burns clock.
The risk is the defenses. Both units have allowed more yards per play than their offenses produce, and a couple of turnovers or short fields could push this over. But at 44.5, and with rain possible, I’ll take my chances with the under.
Cardinals vs. Giants Pick and Prediction
Arizona has the more stable quarterback, a clear passing-game plan and dependable targets. New York has a quarterback completing half his passes and just lost its best pass rusher. That’s enough for me to side with the Cardinals in a coin-flip game.
But Arizona’s defense keeps me from betting this heavily. I won’t lay a field goal with a team that’s allowed 67 points in two weeks.
Here’s how I’d play it:
- Cardinals -1 or -1.5: My best bet. At -2 the edge gets thin, and I wouldn’t chase it to -3. The moneyline around -115 is a fine alternative.
- Under 44.5: I’d play it at -110 or better. Rain on Sunday would make me feel even better about it.
- Trey McBride receptions: Worth a look once props are posted. He’s the safest volume play in this game.
Prediction: Cardinals 23, Giants 20
Best Bet: Cardinals -1.5
Second Play: Under 44.5
Odds are subject to change. Please bet responsibly.