The 2021 CFB season goes on with Week 6 matchups on Saturday, October 9, so we’re taking a closer look at the non-conference clash between New Mexico State and Nevada to get you the best Aggies vs. Wolf Pack betting picks and tips.
According to Bookmaker Sportsbook, the Aggies head to Mackay Stadium in Reno as massive 31.5-point road underdogs. They are winless in three straight encounters with the Wolf Pack, though New Mexico State meets Nevada for the first time since 2011.
The Aggies need to tighten up defensively
The New Mexico State Aggies (1-5; 4-2 ATS) are coming off a tough 37-31 defeat at San Jose State this past Saturday, missing a big chance to upset the Spartans as 25-point road underdogs. Junior signal-caller Jonah Johnson went off for 300 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception, completing 30 of his 44 pass attempts, while sophomore WR Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda had six catches for 90 yards and a couple of scores.
Johnson and Garcia-Castaneda kept their team close, but it wasn’t enough, as the Aggies surrendered 209 rushing yards while racking up only 86 in a return. Once more, New Mexico State struggled to defend, and the Aggies are now allowing 34.2 points (115th in the country) on 449.8 total yards per game (113th).
On the other side of the ball, the Aggies are scoring 22.2 points per contest (tied-104th). Their ground game is one of the worst in the nation, averaging only 95.2 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry. Through his five appearances, Jonah Johnson has thrown for 1,021 yards, five touchdowns, and five picks, completing just 57.5 percent of his passing attempts.
The Wolf Pack pulled off an upset in Week 5
The Nevada Wolf Pack (3-1; 3-1 ATS) are coming off a huge 41-31 victory over Boise State this past Saturday. They upset the Broncos as 3.5-point road dogs, allowing their rivals to run for ridiculous three yards on 35 rushing attempts.
The Wolf Pack forced a couple of fumbles and picked off Hank Bachmeier once. Junior QB Carson Strong threw for 263 yards and a TD, while senior RB Toa Taua accounted for 19 touches, 168 yards from scrimmage, and a pair of touchdowns.
Nevada bounced back from a heavy 38-17 defeat at Kansas State in Week 3. The Wolf Pack are tallying 32.3 points per game (tied-50th in the country) while surrendering 24.0 in a return (tied-65th). They are averaging only 90.3 rushing yards per contest (121st), mostly leaning on Carson Strong, who’s tossed for 1,218 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions so far this season.
New Mexico State:
- 1-6 ATS in the last seven games played in October
- 3-6 ATS in the last nine games against Nevada
- 4-1 ATS in the last five games overall
- 5-0 ATS in the last five games at home
New Mexico State vs. Nevada Pick
The Aggies’ defense has been awful thus far, so I’m backing the Wolf Pack to score a bunch of points and cover a massive 31.5-point spread. Carson Strong should tear the Aggies’ secondary apart, and the Wolf Pack will have a nice opportunity to improve their ground game, considering how bad the Aggies’ run D has been through its first six appearances.
Back in Week 3, Nevada smashed Idaho State at home, 49-10, and covered a 35-point spread. Hopefully, we’ll see a similar scenario when the Aggies come to Mackay Stadium.
Pick: Take Nevada -31.5 at -110
The over has hit in eight of New Mexico State’s last 11 outings at any location, and six of those 11 tilts have produced more than 62 points in total. The Aggies will struggle to cope with Nevada’s offense, and the hosts shouldn’t have any problems surpassing a 40-point mark, so I’m backing the over.
Frankly, Nevada should drop at least 50 points on the Aggies, who’ll try their best to put some points on the scoreboard. The visitors should get a chance to do it in garbage time.
Pick: Go over 62.5 points at -110