New York heads to Philadelphia with a 3-0 series lead and a clear identity: grind the game down, win the possession battle, and make you execute in the half court. That profile matters more in Game 4, where urgency tends to spike defense and minutes, not pace.
The market is basically calling this a coin flip on the side (Knicks -1.5, -118 ML), but the cleaner angle is the total. After the 235-point outlier in Game 1, the last two games have averaged 206 total points, with Philly stuck in the mud offensively.
Odds as of 7:37 a.m. ET on May 9, 2026.
Odds & Game Info
| Item | Knicks | 76ers |
|---|---|---|
| Game time (ET) / Arena | 3:30 p.m. ET (NBA listing) at Xfinity Mobile Arena (Philadelphia). Note: your input shows 3:40 p.m. ET. | |
| Moneyline | -118 | +100 |
| Spread | -1.5 (-106) | +1.5 (-114) |
| Total | O 212.5 (-110) | U 212.5 (-110) |
Team Overview
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace | Key Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | Regular season: 53-29 Overall (incl. playoffs to date): 61-31 Road (overall): 25-20 | 7-3 SU 7-3 ATS 4-6 O/U | 49-42-1 | 42-50-0 | 119.8 | 113.3 | 96.80 | OG Anunoby (hamstring) day-to-day |
| Philadelphia 76ers | Regular season: 45-37 Overall (incl. playoffs to date): 50-43 Home (overall): 25-21 | 4-6 SU 6-4 ATS 3-7 O/U | 48-42-3 | 42-51-0 | 115.4 | 115.5 | 99.44 | No injuries listed |
Team Recaps
New York Knicks
New York has won all three games in this series while holding Philly to 102 points or fewer each time (98, 102, 94). The Knicks are also getting it done without leaning on freebies: they rank 25th in free-throw attempts (21.7) in the matchup stat profile, which is a sneaky “under-friendly” trait because it keeps the clock moving.
Offensively, the Knicks’ best regular-season carryover advantage is the shot profile. They hit 37.4% from three (4th) and face a Philly defense allowing 38.2 3PA per game (19th). If the threes are simply “normal,” New York can score efficiently without needing transition.
Philadelphia 76ers
Philly’s problem has been consistent creation when New York forces long possessions. Through three games, the 76ers are averaging 98.0 points per game in the series, and Game 3 was the worst of it at home (94 points).
The 76ers’ regular-season pace (99.44) suggests they prefer to play faster than New York (96.80), but this matchup has largely been played at the Knicks’ tempo. If Philly doesn’t win the early-clock minutes, it becomes a half-court execution test against a defense that is comfortable living in the low 100s.
Matchup Keys
- Tempo control favors the under: Knicks pace is 96.80 (regular season), and the last two games of this series averaged 206 total points.
- Philly’s scoring floor has been low: 98, 102, and 94 points in Games 1-3 (98.0 PPG).
- New York’s three-point math is real: Knicks 37.4% from three (4th) vs a defense allowing 38.2 3PA per game (19th). That’s a path to Knicks offense without necessarily pushing pace.
- Second-chance pressure: Knicks offensive rebounds 12.6 (6th) while Philly allows 12.0 OREB (27th). Extra possessions can decide the side, but they also often come with slower, half-court rebounds-and-reset sequences.
- Free-throw volume is not driving scoring: Knicks are 25th in FTA (21.7), reducing one of the easiest ways to inflate a total.
Betting Trends
- Knicks are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- 76ers are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- Knicks have gone under the total in 2 straight games in this series (210 and 202 total points).
- The last 10 Knicks–76ers matchups are 6-4 to the under.
- Knicks are 49-42-1 ATS overall (including playoffs to date).
- 76ers are 48-42-3 ATS overall (including playoffs to date).
- Knicks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
- 76ers are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Philadelphia has failed to reach 103 points in every game of this series (98, 102, 94).
Best Bet
Under 212.5 (-110)
Rate: 3 units (out of 5)
Philadelphia’s series scoring (98.0 PPG through three games) is the biggest driver here, and it’s happening for a reason: New York is dictating tempo and turning possessions into half-court reps. The last two games have landed at 210 and 202 total points, and the matchup profile supports it, especially with New York’s slower regular-season pace (96.80) and low free-throw volume (21.7 FTA, 25th). Even if the Knicks’ three-point shooting shows up, they can still “score efficiently” without turning this into a track meet, which is exactly what an under needs.
Predicted Score
Knicks 107, 76ers 101 (Total: 208)
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