New Orleans comes in in damage-control mode at 20-44, but it has quietly played its best ball lately (6-4 last 10) and just hung 133 points in Sacramento on Thursday night. The problem is the spot: this is the second night of a road back-to-back, now stepping up in class against a Phoenix team that’s been far more reliable at home.
Phoenix is 35-27 and 20-13 at home, but it’s also on the second night of a back-to-back after a tight 105-103 loss to Chicago on Thursday. The Suns are laying 6 with a total of 225.5, and the injury list matters here, especially for Phoenix’s wing defense and frontcourt depth.
Odds as of 8:47 a.m. ET on March 6, 2026.
Odds & Game Info
One quick snapshot of tonight’s market and setting.
| Item | New Orleans Pelicans | Phoenix Suns |
|---|---|---|
| Tip time (ET) | 9:10 p.m. ET | |
| Arena | Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix, AZ) | |
| Moneyline | +190 | -230 |
| Spread | +6.0 (-112) | -6.0 (-108) |
| Total | Over 225.5 (-114) | Under 225.5 (-106) |
Team Overview
This table pulls the key betting and efficiency indicators into one place.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg (pts/100) | DRtg (pts allowed/100) | Pace | Key Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelicans | 20-44 (9-23 away) | 6-4 | 35-29-0 | 33-31-0 | 110.9 | 115.3 | 99.95 | Dejounte Murray (day-to-day, reconditioning) |
| Suns | 35-27 (20-13 home) | 4-6 | 36-23-3 | 25-37-0 | 111.3 | 110.7 | 98.07 | Dillon Brooks (out, hand); Mark Williams (out, foot); Jordan Goodwin (out, calf) |
Team Recaps
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans is 20-44 overall and 9-23 on the road, but the recent form has been real: 6-4 in the last 10 with 118.3 points per game on 48.0% shooting. That offensive uptick is the only thing keeping them in range most nights because the season-long defense has been a problem, sitting at a 115.3 defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions).
From a betting perspective, the Pelicans have been competitive relative to market expectation (35-29 ATS), and they’ve leaned slightly to the over overall (33-31 O/U). The scheduling spot is the biggest concern: they’re traveling again after a Thursday night road win in Sacramento (133-123), and that’s typically where shot quality and transition defense take a hit.
Injury watch: Dejounte Murray is listed day-to-day (reconditioning). If he’s limited or out, New Orleans can lose some on-ball creation, which is especially costly late in possessions on tired legs.
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix is 35-27 with a strong 20-13 home record, and the profile is built on defense first. The Suns are allowing 111.4 points per game and own a 110.7 defensive rating, which is a meaningful edge against a Pelicans defense that has leaked points all season.
The market has not priced Phoenix perfectly either: the Suns are 36-23-3 ATS, one of the more profitable ATS teams, but totals have been the defining betting angle (25-37 O/U). That under bias fits what they’ve looked like lately too: over the last 10 games they’re averaging just 102.7 points on 40.9% shooting, with opponents held to 109.4 per game.
The main flag is availability. Dillon Brooks (hand) is out, Mark Williams (foot) is out, and Jordan Goodwin (calf) is out. That matters for Phoenix’s perimeter matchups and some of the lineups that help them keep games in the mud.
Matchup Keys
- Defense gap is real: Phoenix’s 110.7 DRtg vs New Orleans’ 115.3 DRtg points to the Suns having the cleaner path to consistent stops.
- Paint scoring vs paint defense: Phoenix is generating 43.5 points in the paint per game, while New Orleans is allowing 52.8 points in the paint per game.
- Shot profile + fatigue: Phoenix is a lower-pace team (98.07), and both teams are on a back-to-back. That combination tends to punish jump-shooting efficiency and free-throw rate, which can drag totals down.
- Recent scoring directions: Suns last 10: 102.7 PPG. Pelicans last 10: 118.3 PPG. Which one wins out likely decides whether 225.5 is too high or too low.
- Season series leverage: Phoenix leads the season series 3-0, including a 123-114 win on Dec. 28.
Betting Trends
- Phoenix is 36-23-3 ATS this season.
- New Orleans is 35-29-0 ATS this season.
- Phoenix totals lean under: 25 overs, 37 unders.
- New Orleans totals lean slightly over: 33 overs, 31 unders.
- Phoenix is 20-13 at home.
- New Orleans is 9-23 on the road.
- Suns last 10 games: 4-6, scoring 102.7 PPG and allowing 109.4 PPG.
- Pelicans last 10 games: 6-4, scoring 118.3 PPG and allowing 116.9 PPG.
- Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, but New Orleans also has travel (Sacramento to Phoenix).
Best Bet
Under 225.5 (-106) for 3 units.
Phoenix’s season-long under profile (37 unders in 62 games) matches what it’s doing right now offensively: 102.7 points per game over the last 10 on 40.9% shooting. Add in that both teams are on a back-to-back, and you have a setup where pace and shot quality can both slip, especially early. New Orleans’ defense can certainly give up points, but Phoenix’s slower tempo (98.07) and top-tier scoring defense (111.4 points allowed per game) are built to keep opponents from turning this into a track meet.
Predicted Score
Suns 113, Pelicans 106
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