The Knicks come in rolling and protect Madison Square Garden as well as anyone (27-9 home), while the Pelicans have struggled away from New Orleans (9-25 road). New York’s profile is clean for a favorite: top-tier efficiency on both ends and a pace that tends to keep games from turning into track meets.
The market is still pricing New Orleans as a live dog against the number, though. The Pelicans have been a strong ATS team all season (42-30 ATS) and they’ve quietly played a string of lower-scoring games lately, which matters with a 231.5 total.
Odds as of 10:27 a.m. ET on March 24, 2026.
Odds & Game Info
| Item | New Orleans Pelicans | New York Knicks |
|---|---|---|
| Tip time | 7:40 p.m. ET (schedule listings show 7:30 p.m. ET) | |
| Arena | Madison Square Garden (New York, NY) | |
| Moneyline | +290 | -360 |
| Spread | +8.5 (-108) | -8.5 (-112) |
| Total | Over 231.5 (-110) | Under 231.5 (-110) |
Team Overview
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace | Key Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelicans | 25-47 (16-22 home, 9-25 road) | 6-4 | 42-30-0 | 35-37-0 | 113.4 | 117.0 | 101.1 | Bryce McGowens (out, toe) |
| Knicks | 47-25 (27-9 home, 21-16 road) | 7-3 | 37-34-1 | 34-38-0 | 118.5 | 111.7 | 98.4 | Landry Shamet (out, knee); Miles McBride (out, pelvis); Kevin McCullar Jr. (GTD, quadriceps) |
Team Recaps
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans plays faster than New York (101.1 pace, 11th), but the efficiency hasn’t been there consistently: 113.4 ORtg (20th) with a 52.8% eFG (26th). Their best path to offense is extra chances and free throws, ranking top-10 in offensive rebounding rate (31.4%, 8th) and free-throw rate (28.3%, 9th).
The defense is where the matchup gets dicey against a top-tier Knicks offense. The Pelicans are 24th in DRtg (117.0) and they’re vulnerable on the glass defensively (opponent ORB% 32.5%, 28th), which is a bad combination against a team that can score efficiently and generate second possessions.
Rest and travel note: New Orleans last played March 21, then travels to New York for this one, so they’re not on a back-to-back but they do swap time zones.
New York Knicks
New York is elite on both ends by the numbers: 118.5 ORtg (3rd) and 111.7 DRtg (5th), and they do it while playing slower than league average (98.4 pace, 23rd). That pace control is a real lever in totals betting, especially at home where their defense tends to travel less than their shooting.
The Knicks’ defensive identity also lines up well here: they are top-3 at limiting opponent offensive rebounds (opponent ORB% 28.1%, 3rd). That directly attacks one of New Orleans’ more reliable strengths (crashing the glass), and it forces the Pelicans to score more efficiently in the half court, where they’ve been below average.
Rest note: New York last played March 22 and stays home, so it’s a standard one-day rest spot with no travel.
Matchup Keys
- Tempo control: Knicks pace (98.4) vs. Pelicans pace (101.1). If New York dictates, 231.5 gets harder to clear without hot shooting.
- Second-chance battle: Pelicans ORB% 31.4% (8th) runs into a Knicks defense allowing just 28.1% opponent ORB% (3rd).
- Shot quality vs shot-making: Pelicans eFG% is 52.8% (26th), and the Knicks defense holds opponents to a 53.7% eFG (8th).
- Knicks’ edge possessions: New York is strong on the offensive glass too (ORB% 32.9%, 7th) against a Pelicans defense that ranks 28th in opponent ORB% allowed (32.5%).
- Free-throw pressure point: New Orleans gets to the line (FT rate 28.3%, 9th). New York’s offense draws fewer free throws (FT rate 24.0%, 24th), which can suppress scoring volatility if whistles are normal.
Betting Trends
- Pelicans are 42-30-0 ATS this season.
- Knicks are 37-34-1 ATS this season.
- Pelicans are 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games.
- Knicks are 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games.
- Pelicans totals are 35-37 this season (slight lean to the under).
- Knicks totals are 34-38 this season (under has been the more common outcome).
- Pelicans have gone under in 7 of their last 10 games.
- Knicks are 27-9 at home; Pelicans are 9-25 on the road.
Best Bet
Under 231.5 (-110)
New York plays at a bottom-third pace (98.4), and their defense is top-five in efficiency (111.7 DRtg), which is exactly the kind of profile that can keep a talented favorite from turning a game into a pure points race. On the other side, New Orleans’ offense has been inefficient by shot-making (52.8% eFG, 26th), and they’ve leaned under lately (7 unders in their last 10). The Knicks also do a strong job limiting second chances (3rd in opponent ORB%), which attacks one of the Pelicans’ cleaner ways to generate easy points.
Units: 3/5
Predicted Score
Knicks 119, Pelicans 110
21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.