Home»NBA»New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz Prediction - February 28, 2026

New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz Prediction – February 28, 2026

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Senior Content Editor, Updated February 27, 2026
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New Orleans comes into Salt Lake City on a three-game win streak, and it already beat Utah in this building 129-118 on Thursday. The market is pricing this like a mismatch, largely because the Jazz are short-handed and have struggled to stop anyone all season.

The Pelicans are -260 on the moneyline and laying 6.5 points on the road, with a massive 245.5 total. Odds as of 6:24 p.m. ET on Feb. 27, 2026.

Odds & Game Info

Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.

MarketNew OrleansUtah
Spread-6.5 (-114)+6.5 (-106)
Moneyline-260+215
Total (245.5)Over (-110)Under (-110)

Team Overview

Here’s a snapshot of where both teams stand right now.

TeamRecordHome/RoadLast 10ATSO/UORtgDRtgPaceKey Injury
Pelicans18-42Road: 7-215-532-2731-29115.1120.3100.0Trey Murphy III (shoulder) out; Yves Missi (calf) out
Jazz18-41Home: 11-193-731-2835-23118.0125.9101.7Lauri Markkanen (ankle) out; Keyonte George (ankle) out; Walker Kessler (shoulder) out for season

Team Recaps

New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans is 18-42 overall with a 7-21 road record, but it’s playing its best ball in weeks with three straight wins. In the last four games, the Pelicans bounced back from a 139-118 loss to Milwaukee (Feb. 20) by beating Philadelphia 126-111 (Feb. 21), Golden State 113-109 (Feb. 24), then Utah 129-118 (Feb. 26).

The profile is still volatile: New Orleans scores 115.1 points per game and allows 120.3, so even in wins, the margin for error is thin. The injury to Trey Murphy III matters because he’s a primary scoring and spacing piece; without him, the Pelicans’ offense often becomes more paint-driven and transition-reliant.

Utah Jazz

Utah is 18-41 overall and 11-19 at home, and it enters this one on a four-game losing streak. Since Feb. 20, the Jazz have dropped games at Memphis (123-114), at Houston (125-105), then at home to New Orleans (129-118).

The big-picture issue is defense. Utah is allowing 125.9 points per game, and that’s showing up in the betting results as well (35-23 to the over). With Markkanen and George out and Kessler already done for the season, shot creation gets thinner and the path to playing from in front gets narrower.

Matchup Keys

  • Utah’s defense vs. New Orleans’ recent scoring: The Pelicans just put 129 on the Jazz here Thursday, and Utah is allowing 125.9 points per game on the season.
  • Game speed is real: Utah plays fast (101.7 pace), and New Orleans is not slow (100.0). Extra possessions raise the value of shot volume and free throws, and they keep the backdoor cover in play.
  • Half-court creators are missing on both sides: Markkanen and Murphy being out changes late-clock offense and can create scoring droughts, even in a matchup featuring two bottom-tier defenses.
  • Interior depth is stressed: With Kessler out for the year and Missi out for New Orleans, rim protection and defensive rebounding are more about surviving with rotations than winning with size.
  • New Orleans is 18-42 straight up but 32-27 against the spread.
  • Utah is 18-41 straight up and 31-28 ATS.
  • The Jazz are 35-23 to the over this season.
  • The Pelicans are 31-29 to the over this season.
  • New Orleans is 7-21 on the road.
  • Utah is 11-19 at home.
  • The Pelicans are on a three-game win streak; the Jazz are on a four-game losing streak.
  • These teams played Thursday (Feb. 26): New Orleans won 129-118, covered as a 6.5-point favorite, and the game went over the total.
  • Last 10: Pelicans 5-5, Jazz 3-7.

Best Bet

Pelicans -6.5 (-114) for 2 units.

Utah’s injury situation strips out too much top-end offense (Markkanen, George) to feel good about a clean 48-minute response, and the defense has been a problem regardless of who suits up. New Orleans already solved this matchup in the same building two nights earlier, scoring 129 and winning by 11, which is exactly the type of margin you want when laying 6.5. Even with Trey Murphy III out, the Pelicans have been the more reliable ATS team and the Jazz are still giving up a league-worst level of points.

Predicted Score

Pelicans 128, Jazz 119

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