New Orleans heads to Sacramento late Thursday with the Pelicans installed as solid road favorites. The market is pricing in a clear talent gap, but injury availability (especially for New Orleans) could swing both the side and total as we get closer to tip.
At the current numbers, New Orleans is -5.5 on the spread and -210 on the moneyline, with a high total of 234.5. Sacramento’s season-long defensive profile supports a big number, but the Kings’ current injury list creates real downside risk for their scoring ceiling.
Odds & Game Info
Here’s the current betting board for Pelicans-Kings.
| Info | Pelicans | Kings |
|---|---|---|
| Game time (ET) / Arena | 10:10 PM ET (7:10 PM PT) / Golden 1 Center | |
| Moneyline | -210 | +176 |
| Spread | -5.5 (-110) | +5.5 (-110) |
| Total | 234.5 (Over -112 / Under -108) | |
| Odds timestamp | Odds as of 8:49 a.m. ET on March 5, 2026. | |
Team Overview
A snapshot of where both teams stand right now.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace | Key Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelicans | 19-44 (Road: 8-23) | 6-4 | 33-29 | 32-31 | 113.9 | 119.1 | 100.2 | Zion Williamson (ankle) Questionable; Trey Murphy III (neck) Questionable; Dejounte Murray (reconditioning) Out |
| Kings | 14-49 (Home: 9-21) | 2-8 | 24-39 | 31-32 | 110.3 | 121.2 | 99.5 | Domantas Sabonis (knee) Out; Zach LaVine (finger) Out; Keegan Murray (ankle) Out; De’Andre Hunter (eye) Out; Dylan Cardwell (ankle) Out |
Team Recaps
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans is 19-44 overall and just 8-23 on the road, but the form line has improved with a 6-4 run over the last 10. From a betting perspective, they’ve been a capable spread team (33-29 ATS) even while losing far more games than they win.
The profile is straightforward: league-average-ish offense that’s been dragged down by defense. The Pelicans are at 113.9 ORtg with a 100.2 pace, but the 119.1 DRtg keeps them underwater in net efficiency. They’re scoring 114.9 points per game while allowing 120.2, and opponents have been efficient from deep (14.4 made threes allowed per game).
One matchup-relevant strength: New Orleans generates extra possessions. Their offensive rebounding rate sits at 27.0%, and that matters against a Sacramento team that has struggled to finish defensive stands all season.
Sacramento Kings
Sacramento comes in at 14-49 overall (9-21 at home) and has been sliding hard lately at 2-8 in its last 10. The Kings have also been one of the league’s least reliable ATS teams (24-39 ATS), which is often what you see from a team with both availability issues and a defense that can’t stabilize.
The defense is the headline problem: 121.2 DRtg is a bottom-tier mark, and it matches the per-game output allowed (121.1). Opponents are hitting 49.6% from the field and 36.8% from three against Sacramento, which is a brutal combo when you’re trying to hang within a single-digit spread.
Offensively, the Kings are at 110.3 ORtg with a 99.5 pace (not fast enough to “pace” their way into overs). With multiple core scorers sidelined, Sacramento’s shot creation burden gets heavier on what’s left of the perimeter rotation.
Matchup Keys
- Sacramento’s shot defense is a problem. The Kings are allowing 49.6% shooting and 36.8% from three on the season, a bad recipe against a Pelicans team that can score when it wins the possession battle.
- Second-chance points can tilt this spread. New Orleans’ 27.0% offensive rebounding rate lines up well against a Kings defense that already gives up too many efficient looks.
- Turnovers are unlikely to save Sacramento. Both teams are relatively similar in turnover rate (Pelicans 12.3% vs Kings 12.7%), so don’t expect a “live-ball turnover” edge to bail out the Kings.
- Pace is only moderate. With both teams around the 99–100 range in pace, the 234.5 total asks for above-average efficiency (or a free-throw parade), especially if New Orleans sits a star.
- Rest/travel leans Kings. Sacramento last played at home on March 3 and stays home; New Orleans played in Los Angeles on March 3 and travels again with one day off.
Betting Trends
- Pelicans: 33-29 ATS this season.
- Kings: 24-39 ATS this season.
- Pelicans are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
- Kings are 2-8 over their last 10 games.
- Pelicans are 8-23 straight up on the road.
- Kings are 9-21 straight up at home.
- Pelicans O/U record: 32-31.
- Kings O/U record: 31-32.
- Sacramento is allowing 121.1 points per game (one of the worst defensive marks in the league).
- The last meeting (Feb. 9) finished well below the total: Pelicans 120, Kings 94 (214 points).
Best Bet
Under 234.5 (-108)
This number is hanging on defensive incompetence more than pace, and the pace indicators (Pelicans 100.2, Kings 99.5) are not screaming track meet. Sacramento’s injury list is also heavy on real usage and shot creation, which raises the chances of long scoring droughts even if the Kings still allow efficient looks.
The one thing that can burn an under here is free throws, but if New Orleans is missing either Zion Williamson or Trey Murphy III (both questionable), it becomes even harder to justify 234.5 at a moderate tempo. I’d still want to re-check final injury news closer to tip, but as of this morning, the under has the cleaner math.
Best Bet Rating: 3 out of 5 units
Predicted Score
Pelicans 118, Kings 112
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