Minnesota heads to Denver up 3-1 in this first-round series, but the Game 5 injury report flips the handicap: Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo are both ruled out, while Aaron Gordon is questionable. That’s a big reason you’re seeing an inflated number on a Denver team that has still been outscored in three of four games.
The market is pricing a Nuggets win as the most likely outcome (heavy moneyline, double-digit spread), while the total sits in the low 220s even though this series has leaned defensive outside of Game 2. Odds as of 9:19 AM ET on April 27, 2026.
Odds & Game Info
| Market | Timberwolves | Nuggets |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +11.5 (-112) | -11.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +390 | -510 |
| Total | Over 222.5 (-108) | Under 222.5 (-112) |
Team Overview
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace | Key Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 52-34 (Home 28-15, Road 24-19) | 6-4 | 40-46-0 | 38-48-0 | 116.8 | 113.5 | 100.53 | Anthony Edwards (Out, left knee bone bruise); Donte DiVincenzo (Out, right Achilles tendon repair) |
| Denver Nuggets | 55-31 (Home 29-14, Road 26-17) | 7-3 | 45-41-0 | 53-33-0 | 122.6 | 117.4 | 98.36 | Aaron Gordon (Questionable, left calf tightness); Peyton Watson (Out, right hamstring strain) |
Team Recaps
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota has won three of the first four games and has held Denver under 100 points in two straight (113-96 on April 23, then 112-96 on April 25). Those are the kinds of scores that travel, especially when you can keep the game in the halfcourt.
The problem is shot creation. With Edwards out and DiVincenzo also out, Minnesota’s margin for error shrinks fast. In the April 25 win, Edwards played only 17:33 (5 points on 1-for-8) and DiVincenzo lasted 1:19 before exiting, meaning the Wolves are now trying to close a series without their top perimeter engine and a key guard rotation piece.
Denver Nuggets
Denver’s series context is ugly, but the Game 5 angle is straightforward: it’s win-or-go-home at Ball Arena against a Wolves team missing Edwards. Denver’s overall offensive profile is still elite (122.6 ORtg), and the pace they prefer is slower (98.36), which usually pairs well with being a big home favorite because it reduces possession volatility.
The concern is that the efficiency hasn’t shown up recently. In the April 25 loss, Nikola Jokić went for 24 points, 15 rebounds, and 9 assists but shot 8-for-22, and Jamal Murray scored 30 on 10-for-25. If Aaron Gordon (questionable) is limited or out, Denver loses a lot of its “easy points” pathway: cuts, rim pressure, and offensive rebounding muscle.
Matchup Keys
- Series scoring has been compressed. The last two games finished 208 and 208 total points (both Minnesota wins), and three of the four games in the series have stayed under the closing total listed for those games.
- Denver’s offense vs Minnesota’s defense is still the headline. Nuggets ORtg (122.6) vs Wolves DRtg (113.5) is the clash that decides whether Denver can separate or gets dragged into another grinder.
- Three-point math still favors Denver on paper. Denver shot 39.6% from three this season, best in the league, and that’s the fastest way to build margin if Minnesota’s offense is shorthanded.
- Turnovers are a swing factor for an undermanned Minnesota offense. Minnesota is at 14.7 turnovers per game, and empty possessions are harder to overcome when you’re missing your primary perimeter scorer.
Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 6-4 SU over its last 10 games, and 6-4 ATS over that span.
- Denver is 7-3 SU over its last 10 games, but 4-6 ATS over that span.
- Minnesota is 5-5 to the total over its last 10.
- Denver is 6-4 to the total over its last 10.
- Minnesota has gone Under more often than Over overall (38-48 O/U).
- Denver has gone Over more often than Under overall (53-33 O/U).
- This series is 3-1 to the Under through four games.
- Denver has not reached 100 points in each of the last two games of the series.
- Minnesota has held Denver to 96 points in back-to-back games.
Best Bet
Under 222.5 (-112).
Minnesota’s path without Edwards and DiVincenzo is naturally slower and more halfcourt-heavy, and Denver already plays at a lower pace (98.36) even when it’s scoring efficiently. Add in the recent series pattern (three unders in four games, with the last two landing at 208), and 222.5 is asking for a cleaner offensive game than we’ve seen lately from either side. The Nuggets can cover this number by themselves, but their last two outputs suggest it’s not automatic, especially if Gordon is limited.
Best Bet Rating: 3 units (1 to 5 scale).
Predicted Score
Denver 112, Minnesota 102
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