Memphis visits Dallas on Friday, February 27, 2026, with the Mavericks listed as solid home favorites. The market is also dealing a big total for two teams that have played faster than league average this season.
Dallas is on the second night of a back-to-back after playing Thursday, while Memphis last played Wednesday and makes the short trip into Texas. Injuries are a major part of the handicap for both sides, especially in terms of ball-handling and frontcourt depth.
Odds as of 8:20 a.m. ET on Feb. 27, 2026.
Odds & Game Info
Here’s the current betting line and basic game information.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, February 27, 2026 |
| Tip time | 8:30 p.m. ET (listed). Note: some listings show 8:40 p.m. ET. |
| Arena | American Airlines Center (Dallas) |
| Spread | Dallas -5.0 (-110) | Memphis +5.0 (-110) |
| Moneyline | Dallas -196 | Memphis +164 |
| Total | 240.5 (Over -110 | Under -110) |
Team Snapshot
This table summarizes where each team sits entering Friday night.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace | Key Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis Grizzlies | 21-36 (Home 12-17, Away 9-19) | 3-7 | 25-32 (Last 10: 6-4) | 28-29 (Last 10: 8-2) | 115.40 | 118.11 | 101.34 | Ja Morant (elbow) expected out until at least Mar. 7; Zach Edey (ankle) expected out until at least Mar. 4; Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (finger) out for season |
| Dallas Mavericks | 21-37 (Home 14-17, Away 7-20) | 2-8 | 26-32 (Last 10: 4-6) | 27-31 (Last 10: 6-4) | 114.52 | 117.86 | 101.77 | Kyrie Irving (knee) out for season; Dereck Lively II (foot) out for season; P.J. Washington (ankle) expected out until at least Feb. 27; Cooper Flagg (foot) expected out until at least Feb. 27 |
Recent Form
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis has played high-scoring games lately, but the underlying story is availability. Without a true primary creator, the Grizzlies’ offense has leaned heavily on shot-making, and their defense has struggled to string together stops across full games.
- Last 10 (SU): 3-7
- Last 10 (ATS): 6-4
- Last 10 (O/U): 8-2
- Recent results (most recent first): L 112-133 vs Warriors; L 114-123 vs Kings; L 120-136 vs Heat; W 123-114 vs Jazz; L 116-122 vs Nuggets
On the road, Memphis has had a hard time closing games (9-19 away record). That matters here because Dallas is fast, and fast games tend to amplify thin depth: more possessions, more transition decisions, and usually more foul pressure on bigs.
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas has been volatile game-to-game, but the pace is consistent. Even when the Mavericks are short-handed, they’ve continued to push tempo, which keeps totals and live scoring swings in play.
- Last 10 (SU): 2-8
- Last 10 (ATS): 4-6
- Last 10 (O/U): 6-4
- Recent results (most recent first): L 121-130 vs Kings; W 123-114 at Nets; W 134-130 at Pacers; L 111-122 at Timberwolves; L 104-124 at Lakers
The schedule spot is real: Dallas played Thursday and is back home Friday. With Kyrie Irving already shut down for the year and multiple frontcourt rotation questions, the Mavericks can get into stretches where ball security and defensive rebounding become issues, especially if legs go late.
Matchup Keys
- Both teams play fast: Dallas (101.77 pace) and Memphis (101.34) are operating in a similar tempo band, which typically increases possession volume and raises the importance of shot quality and turnover control.
- Defense has been the bigger problem than offense: Memphis (118.11 DRtg) and Dallas (117.86 DRtg) both grade as below-average defensive teams by points allowed per 100 possessions. If either side is missing rim protection, the other team’s paint scoring becomes more “automatic.”
- Road/home context is ugly for both sides: Memphis is 9-19 away, while Dallas is only 14-17 at home. That’s part of why this spread sits in the single digits even with Memphis missing headline talent.
- Recent head-to-head has favored Memphis, but rosters have shifted: Memphis won the first two meetings this season (118-104 on Nov. 7 and 102-96 on Nov. 22). The trick is how much to weight those games given current injury/rotation realities.
- Market total is asking for another track meet: At 240.5, the number is pricing in high efficiency and limited defense for four quarters. That’s possible with these DRtgs, but it also leaves less margin if either team’s shot creation dries up due to missing guards.
Betting Trends
- Memphis is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games.
- Dallas is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games.
- Memphis is 8-2 to the Over in its last 10 games.
- Dallas is 6-4 to the Over in its last 10 games.
- Memphis is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games.
- Dallas is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games.
- Memphis has lost 5 straight road games SU (0-5 in its last five away).
- Dallas has lost 6 straight at home SU (0-6 in its last six at home).
- Memphis has been a strong matchup-specific cover team recently vs Dallas (6-0 ATS in the last six vs the Mavericks).
Best Bet
Best Bet: Under 240.5 (-110)
This total is extremely ambitious for two teams missing major offensive engines and dealing with rotation instability. Even though both defenses have graded poorly (Memphis 118.11 DRtg, Dallas 117.86 DRtg), the Under can get there if either side has extended empty possessions from turnovers, fatigue (Dallas on the back-to-back), or simply a lack of dependable halfcourt creation without key guards. The pace will be there, but 240.5 still requires sustained efficiency, and that’s a big ask given the injury list and the way both teams’ lineups are being patched together. Measured confidence: this is more about the number being inflated than expecting a slow game.
Predicted Score
Mavericks 121, Grizzlies 115 (Total: 236)
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