Golden State heads to Salt Lake City on Monday night trying to stabilize in the West play-in tier, but they’ll be doing it short-handed. Utah’s record is ugly, yet the Jazz have been a feisty point-spread team and they play fast enough to keep variance high.
The market is still pricing the Warriors as a clear road favorite (and a strong moneyline side), while the total is sitting in the mid-220s. **Odds as of 10:12 a.m. ET on March 9, 2026.**
Odds & Game Info
Here’s a snapshot of the current betting lines from Bookmaker for Warriors-Jazz.
| Market | Golden State | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Game time / Arena | 9:00 PM ET (7:00 PM local) • Delta Center | |
| Moneyline | -245 | +200 |
| Spread | -6.0 (-110) | +6.0 (-110) |
| Total | Over 226.5 (-114) | Under 226.5 (-106) |
Team Overview
This table puts the most bet-relevant team metrics in one place.
| Team | Record | Home/Road | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace | Key Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 32-31 | Road: 13-18 | 4-6 | 28-34-1 | 36-27 | 114.1 | 112.9 | 100.3 | Stephen Curry (out) |
| Jazz | 19-45 | Home: 11-21 | 2-8 | 34-30 | 37-27 | 113.2 | 120.5 | 102.7 | Lauri Markkanen (out) |
Team Recaps
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is **4-6 SU and 4-6 ATS in its last 10**, but the totals profile has been aggressive: **7 of the last 10 have gone Over**. They’re also coming off a lower-scoring road loss at Oklahoma City on **March 7**, then travel to Utah with **one day off** in between.
Stylistically, the Warriors are built around perimeter volume: **45.3 threes attempted per game (1st)** and **16.3 made threes per game (1st)**. The issue is the other stuff that travels poorly: they rank **26th in turnovers (15.6 per game)** and they don’t consistently manufacture free points (**20.7 FTAs per game, 27th**).
Injuries matter a lot here. On the official report (9:45 a.m. ET): **Stephen Curry (out)** and **Jimmy Butler III (out)** headline it, with additional absences including **Kristaps Porzingis (out)** and **Al Horford (out)** plus **Will Richard (questionable)** and **Seth Curry (probable)**.
Utah Jazz
Utah’s recent results are rough (**2-8 SU last 10**), but the Jazz have still been respectable at the window (**34-30 ATS on the season**). They last played **March 7 at Milwaukee**, then return home for this one with **one day off**, so there’s travel, but not a back-to-back.
The Jazz play fast (top-tier tempo) and the underlying story is simple: **offense is serviceable, defense has collapsed**. Their **120.5 defensive rating (29th)** is the anchor on a team that’s also allowing **125.0 points per game (30th)**. If they’re going to hang inside a number like +6, it usually has to come from shot-making and getting to the line (Utah’s offensive free-throw rate is a strength).
Utah is also missing core pieces. On the official report (9:45 a.m. ET): **Lauri Markkanen (out)** and **Walker Kessler (out)** are the big ones, plus **Jaren Jackson Jr. (out)** and **Jusuf Nurkic (out)**.
Matchup Keys
- Warriors 3-point volume vs Jazz 3-point defense: Golden State is 1st in both 3PA (45.3) and 3PM (16.3), and Utah’s defense is near the bottom in 3P% allowed (37.2, 29th) plus 3PA allowed (41.4, 30th) and 3PM allowed (15.4, 30th).
- Tempo tug-of-war: Utah’s pace is 102.7 (3rd), while Golden State sits at 100.3 (16th). If this turns into a track meet, covering +6 gets easier for the underdog, but it also raises blowout risk if Utah’s defense can’t get stops.
- Turnovers and empty possessions: The Warriors commit 15.6 turnovers per game (26th). If Utah can convert those into points, it’s the cleanest path to staying within one or two possessions late.
- Free throws are not a Warriors safety net: Golden State is just 27th in FTAs (20.7). If their threes aren’t falling, they don’t have the same built-in way to “buy” offense at the line.
Betting Trends
- Warriors are 28-34-1 ATS this season.
- Jazz are 34-30 ATS this season.
- Warriors are 13-18 on the road.
- Jazz are 11-21 at home.
- Warriors are 4-6 SU over their last 10 games.
- Jazz are 2-8 SU over their last 10 games.
- Warriors are 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games.
- Jazz are 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games.
- Warriors’ last 10 games are 7-3 to the Over.
- Head-to-head last 10 meetings: Warriors are 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS.
Best Bet
Jazz +6.0 (-110) (2 units out of 5)
Golden State has the better profile, but the spread asks them to win comfortably on the road while missing high-end creation (with **Stephen Curry out** and **Jimmy Butler III out**, plus other rotation absences). That’s exactly where their season-long ATS issues show up, and it’s also where Utah’s season-long ATS strength has quietly mattered.
The matchup is scary because Utah’s defense is a problem and the Warriors’ three-point volume can break games open quickly. That’s why this is a 2-unit play, not a max bet. But if the Jazz can avoid the early avalanche and keep the possession count high, +6 gives you a realistic runway to cash even in a loss.
Predicted Score
Warriors 116, Jazz 112
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