Denver heads into Game 4 in a 2-1 hole after dropping the last two, including a 113-96 loss at Target Center on Thursday, April 23. The market still shades Denver as the better team, but Minnesota has controlled the physicality and has already proven it can win in Denver.
Current odds have the Nuggets as short road favorites with a mid-to-high total for a matchup that has leaned defense in this series. Odds as of 8:16 a.m. ET on April 24, 2026.
Odds & Game Info
| Item | Info |
|---|---|
| Tip time | 8:30 PM ET |
| Arena | Target Center (Minneapolis, MN) |
| Moneyline | DEN -124 | MIN +106 |
| Spread | DEN -1.5 (-110) | MIN +1.5 (-110) |
| Total | 229.5 (O -110 | U -110) |
| Series score (to date) | Minnesota leads 2-1 |
| Rest/travel note | Both teams last played in Minneapolis on April 23; no travel edge, one full day off before Game 4. |
Team Overview
| Team | Record | Last 10 (SU) | ATS (season) | O/U (season) | ORtg | DRtg | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 54-28 (26-15 away) | 8-2 | 45-40 | 53-32 | 121.2 | 116.0 | 99.5 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 49-33 (26-15 home) | 5-5 | 39-46 | 38-47 (37-45 regular season; 1-2 playoffs to date) | 115.6 | 112.5 | 101.5 |
Team Recaps
Denver Nuggets
Denver’s profile is still offense-first: a 121.2 offensive rating in the regular season, elite shot-making (57.7 eFG%), and a slower pace (99.5) that keeps their half-court execution front-and-center. The problem through three games is that Minnesota has forced Denver into more grind-it-out possessions without giving up easy paint touches.
From a recent-form standpoint, Denver is 8-2 SU over its last 10 games, but both losses are in this series (including the 17-point loss on April 23). If Denver is going to flip Game 4, it likely starts with cleaner early offense and fewer empty trips against Minnesota’s set defense.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota has leaned into its identity: defense that travels and enough shot creation to win the possession game. The Timberwolves posted a 112.5 defensive rating in the regular season and have been the more consistent defensive team in this matchup, holding Denver under 115 points in two of the three games.
Offensively, Minnesota is not trying to match Denver shot-for-shot. They have been comfortable winning with stops, then cashing in on secondary chances and timely threes. The 113-96 win on April 23 was the clearest example: Denver never got comfortable, and Minnesota controlled the tone from the opening stretch.
Matchup Keys
- Efficiency gap vs defensive edge: Denver’s ORtg (121.2) is elite, but Minnesota’s DRtg (112.5) and opponent eFG% profile is the type that can drag this matchup into late-clock possessions.
- Shot quality (eFG%): Denver’s regular-season eFG% (57.7) is a real separator. Minnesota’s ability to keep Denver from living at that level is the swing factor on the total and the spread.
- Turnovers: Denver’s turnover rate (12.8%) is a strength; Minnesota’s (14.5%) is shakier. If the Wolves cough it up more than usual, Denver’s transition math changes fast.
- Pace control: Minnesota played faster than Denver in the regular season (101.5 vs 99.5). If this game stays slower, it tends to compress scoring runs and makes each possession more valuable.
Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 2-1 SU in the series to date.
- Minnesota is 2-1 ATS in the series to date (covered in Games 2 and 3).
- The Under is 2-1 in the series; total points by game: 221, 233, 209.
- Denver is 8-2 SU over its last 10 games.
- Denver is 5-5 ATS over its last 10 games (based on its last-10 game list with closing spreads/totals shown).
- Minnesota is 6-4 ATS over its last 10 games (based on its last-10 game list with closing spreads/totals shown).
- Denver is 45-40 ATS on the season.
- Minnesota is 39-46 ATS on the season.
- Denver games are 53-32 to the Over on the season.
- Minnesota is 38-47 to the Under combining regular season plus playoffs to date (37-45 regular season; 1-2 playoffs).
Best Bet
Under 229.5 (-110) for 3 units.
Minnesota has already shown it can turn this matchup into a half-court, defense-led game, and two of the three games have landed comfortably below this number (221 and 209). Even with Denver’s top-tier season-long offense, the series has featured longer possessions and fewer clean looks when Minnesota is set. With both teams on equal rest and no travel fatigue excuse, I’m expecting another game where points have to be earned rather than gifted.
Predicted Score
Timberwolves 114, Nuggets 111 (Total: 225)
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