Chicago limps into Phoenix on a brutal 1–9 skid over its last 10, and the market has priced this like a mismatch. The Suns have been the steadier team overall (35–26) and get this one at home, where they’re 20–12 straight up.
Phoenix is a heavy favorite on the moneyline (-520) with Chicago coming back at +400. The Bulls are also catching +10.5, while the total is sitting in the mid-220s despite two teams that have leaned under lately.
Odds as of 8:49 AM ET on March 5, 2026.
Odds & Game Info
Here are the current lines for Bulls vs. Suns.
| Market | Chicago Bulls | Phoenix Suns |
|---|---|---|
| Time / Arena | 9:10 PM ET (7:10 PM local) • PHX Arena (Phoenix) | |
| Moneyline | +400 | -520 |
| Spread | +10.5 (-106) | -10.5 (-114) |
| Total | 224.5 (Over -114 / Under -106) | |
Team Overview
This snapshot covers form, efficiency, and the injury situation.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | ORtg | DRtg | Pace | Key Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls | 25-37 (Road: 9-19) | 1-9 | 28-34 (Road ATS: 11-17) | 28-33-1 | 112.4 | 116.9 | 102.5 | Josh Giddey (ankle, day-to-day), Matas Buzelis (ankle, day-to-day) |
| Phoenix Suns | 35-26 (Home: 20-12) | 4-6 | 37-24 (Home ATS: 19-13) | 25-35-1 | 113.4 | 112.5 | 98.3 | Dillon Brooks (hand, day-to-day), Mark Williams (foot, day-to-day) |
Team Recaps
Chicago Bulls
Chicago is 25–37 overall, but the road has been a problem (9–19 SU) and the recent form is worse: 1–9 in the last 10 with an ugly 105.9 offensive rating in that span. Even with a top-5 pace (102.5 possessions), the scoring has dried up, which is a big reason their last-10 net rating sits at -9.4.
Defensively, the season-long numbers are rough (116.9 defensive rating), but there are two style notes worth tracking tonight: the Bulls rarely force turnovers (12.4% forced TOV rate, 29th) while doing a good job limiting opponents’ second-chance volume (opponents’ offensive rebound rate allowed: 28.8%, 4th). If Phoenix doesn’t get extra possessions, the favorite’s margin for covering a big spread gets tighter.
Injuries are a real swing factor for Chicago. The injury report includes Josh Giddey (right ankle, day-to-day) and Matas Buzelis (right ankle, day-to-day), plus several others listed day-to-day (including Anfernee Simons, Patrick Williams, Jalen Smith, Zach Collins, Jaden Ivey, Noa Essengue). If Chicago is short on ball-handling or shot creation again, the under becomes easier to like.
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix is 35–26 overall and 20–12 at home, built around a slower tempo (98.3 pace, 25th) and a top-10 defense (112.5 defensive rating). They’re middle-of-the-pack offensively (113.4 ORtg), but their defense travels well possession-to-possession because it creates takeaways: 16.7% forced turnover rate, 3rd.
The concern is current form. Over the last 10, Phoenix is 4–6 with a 106.7 offensive rating, which is a steep dip from its season baseline. That matters if you’re laying -10.5, because it raises the odds of a “win comfortably, but not enough” type of outcome.
On the injury report, Dillon Brooks (broken left hand, day-to-day), Jordan Goodwin (calf, day-to-day), and Mark Williams (foot, day-to-day) are listed. Phoenix’s offensive rebounding rate is strong (33.0%, 6th), so Williams’ status in particular can matter for second-chance points.
Matchup Keys
- Pace clash: Bulls play fast (102.5, 5th) but Phoenix plays slow (98.3, 25th). If the Suns control tempo, fewer possessions pushes value toward the under.
- Turnover pressure: Suns force turnovers at a top-3 rate (16.7%), while Chicago ranks near the bottom forcing them (12.4%). Extra Phoenix possessions are a clean path to separation.
- Free-throw scarcity: Both teams are low in FT rate (Suns 21.9%, 29th; Bulls 24.0%, 24th). Less stoppage tends to suppress totals, especially if half-court offense stalls.
- Offensive glass vs. defensive glass: Phoenix crashes (33.0% ORB, 6th), but Chicago has been good at limiting opponents’ offensive rebounds (28.8% allowed, 4th). That’s a key tug-of-war for second-chance scoring.
Betting Trends
- Chicago is 28-34 ATS overall and 11-17 ATS on the road.
- Phoenix is 37-24 ATS overall and 19-13 ATS at home.
- Chicago is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games (and 3-7 ATS over that span).
- Phoenix is 4-6 SU in its last 10 games (and 3-7 ATS over that span).
- Chicago is 28-33-1 to the total this season, but 16-12 to the over/under on the road (more overs away from home).
- Phoenix is 25-35-1 to the total this season, including 11-20-1 at home (home games skew under).
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 straight Bulls games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix’s last 6 games.
- Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 road games.
- Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games.
Best Bet
Under 224.5 (-106)
Phoenix plays at a bottom-6 pace (98.3), and their last-10 offense has been well below average (106.7 ORtg), which is not the profile of a team that consistently pushes games into the high 220s. Chicago is fast, but they’re in a 1–9 last-10 stretch with a 105.9 offensive rating in that span, and they’re also dealing with key day-to-day tags (notably Giddey and Buzelis). Add in both teams’ low free-throw rates, and there’s a straightforward path to a lower-possession, lower-stoppage game.
Units: 3/5
Predicted Score
Phoenix Suns 112, Chicago Bulls 104
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