Atlanta comes back to Madison Square Garden with the first-round series tied 2-2, and Game 5 sets up as a tempo tug-of-war. The Hawks want to play faster (101.65 pace in the regular season). The Knicks are comfortable dragging possessions into the half court (96.80 pace), which matters a lot with a playoff total sitting in the low 210s.
New York is priced like the steadier team at home, laying 6.5 with a short moneyline. If you are looking for the cleanest angle, the market is basically asking one question: can Atlanta force this game to be played at Atlanta’s speed?
Odds as of 9:25 AM ET on April 27, 2026.
Odds & Game Info
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Matchup | Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks |
| Date / Time (ET) | April 28, 2026 / 8:10 PM ET |
| Arena | Madison Square Garden (New York) |
| Moneyline | Hawks +235, Knicks -290 |
| Spread | Hawks +6.5 (-110), Knicks -6.5 (-110) |
| Total | 212.5 (Over -110 / Under -110) |
Team Overview
| Team | Record (Reg. Season) | Home / Road (Reg. Season) | Last 10 (SU) | ATS (Season) | O/U (Season) | ORtg | DRtg | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 46-36 | Home: 24-17 / Road: 22-19 | 7-3 | 46-40-0 | 41-45-0 | 116.1 | 113.7 | 101.65 |
| New York Knicks | 53-29 | Home: 30-10 / Road: 23-19 | 6-4 | 46-41-0 | 40-47-0 | 119.8 | 113.3 | 96.80 |
Team Recaps
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta’s profile is clear: play quicker, share it, and generate volume offense. The Hawks averaged 118.5 points per game in the regular season with a 101.65 pace, and they posted a 116.1 offensive rating. They also took care of business away from home (22-19 road record), which keeps them live as a road dog if the game opens up early.
From a betting-results standpoint, Atlanta has been slightly profitable against the spread overall (46-40 ATS), and their road ATS mark stands out (24-19 ATS away). Totals-wise, Hawks games leaned Under more often than Over (41-45 O/U), even with their faster pace, which is a useful reminder that pace alone does not guarantee points if efficiency dips or the game turns into a free-throw-light playoff grinder.
New York Knicks
New York’s edge starts with control. The Knicks played at 96.80 pace in the regular season and paired that slower tempo with a top-tier offense (119.8 offensive rating). That combo is a big reason they were so tough at MSG (30-10 home record), where they can dictate matchups, control shot quality, and make opponents score late in the clock.
The Knicks have also been an Under team in results (40-47 O/U). In their most recent 10 games listed, seven finished Under, which fits the pace and style. If New York gets this game into the half court early and avoids live-ball turnovers, Atlanta’s transition chances shrink fast, and that typically drags both the Hawks’ scoring ceiling and overall possession count down.
Matchup Keys
- Pace battle is the handicap. Hawks (101.65 pace) vs Knicks (96.80) is a real stylistic clash. If New York wins the tempo, 212.5 becomes much easier to stay Under.
- Efficiency vs efficiency. Knicks ORtg (119.8) vs Hawks DRtg (113.7) is a favorable on-paper scoring matchup for New York, especially if they avoid empty possessions.
- Atlanta needs clean offense to keep it close. The Hawks averaged 14.2 turnovers per game in the regular season. Against a slower team, giveaways are extra damaging because you are donating the most efficient points in basketball: transition.
- Shot volume and second chances. New York’s slower pace means each extra possession matters more. If the Knicks can create even a small shot-attempt gap, covering -6.5 becomes much more realistic in a lower-total environment.
Betting Trends
- Knicks are 46-41-0 ATS on the season.
- Hawks are 46-40-0 ATS on the season.
- Knicks are 40-47-0 on totals (45.98% Over), an Under-leaning profile.
- Hawks are 41-45-0 on totals (47.67% Over), also leaning Under.
- Knicks home ATS: 29-14-0. Hawks away ATS: 24-19-0.
- Knicks’ recent 10-game O/U run (listed): 7 Unders, 3 Overs.
- Hawks’ recent 10-game O/U run (listed): 6 Unders, 4 Overs.
- In the first four games of this series (listed), three finished Under.
Best Bet
Under 212.5 (-110) for 3 units.
New York’s regular-season pace (96.80) is built to shorten games, and their recent results have tracked that style with seven Unders in their last 10 listed. On the other side, Atlanta plays faster, but their season totals results still leaned Under (41-45), and three of the first four games in this series (listed) finished Under. With two days off since Game 4, you are less likely to see sloppy, transition-heavy basketball created by tired legs, which also supports a more set-defense game.
Predicted Score
Knicks 108, Hawks 101
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