Two games, two late-inning home run finishes, and now one game for the right to face the Dodgers.
Atlanta took Game 1 on Austin Riley’s eighth-inning blast off Jhoan Duran. Philadelphia answered in Game 2 with back-to-back homers from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, then won it in the 10th on Alec Bohm’s solo shot. Game 3 is tonight at Truist Park, and the betting market has the Phillies as a small road favorite.
I think that’s the wrong side, as long as Aaron Nola is the one carrying the load for Philadelphia.
Phillies at Braves Game 3: Odds and Game Info
- Start: Thursday, Oct. 1, 8 p.m. ET broadcast (first pitch around 8:15)
- Stadium: Truist Park, Atlanta
- TV: NBC and Peacock
- Series: Tied 1-1, winner advances to face the Dodgers
- Moneyline: Phillies -118, Braves +100 to -102
- Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+146), Braves +1.5 (-176)
- Total: 7.5 (Over -104, Under -118)
The game was moved to prime time overnight, so ignore any page still showing a 2 p.m. start.
Shop the Braves price. Some books are hanging plus money while others have Atlanta at -102. At +100 you only need the Braves to win half the time. FanDuel’s own projection model gives Atlanta about a 54 percent chance, even though its sportsbook has the Phillies favored.
Who’s Pitching? The Most Important Question Tonight
Neither team has officially named a starter, and that uncertainty drives everything about this game.
Philadelphia: Aaron Nola has been lined up to start on regular rest. Don Mattingly called it “all hands on deck,” and Zack Wheeler could either start on three days’ rest or come out of the bullpen. Wheeler threw 97 pitches Sunday to get the Phillies into the postseason. Jesús Luzardo and Andrew Painter have also said they’re available. Cristopher Sánchez, who threw 116 pitches in Game 2, is the only arm that’s definitely off limits.
Atlanta: Grant Holmes is expected to handle the bulk of the innings, possibly after a left-handed opener like Ray Kerr or Brent Suter. That opener would be there to face Schwarber and Harper at the top of the order.
Here’s how the two likely bulk pitchers have fared in this matchup:
| Pitcher | 2026 Record | ERA | vs. Opponent This Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 7-12 | 4.67 | 18 IP, 17 H, 9 R, 4 HR |
| Grant Holmes (ATL) | 10-6 | 3.44 | 20.2 IP, 19 H, 7 R, 4 HR |
Nola has been better lately, with a 2.52 ERA in 10 starts since the start of August. That excludes a one-inning disaster on short rest against Tampa Bay last week. But the Braves have seen him plenty this year, and his overall numbers against Atlanta aren’t good. This lineup is also built to hit right-handed pitching.
Holmes has given up homers to Schwarber, Harper and Trea Turner this season, so he’s far from a sure thing. But he’s had the better year, he’s at home, and he’s making his postseason debut with a full ballpark behind him.
The Wheeler Question
This is the single biggest swing factor in the game. Wheeler is one of the best big-game pitchers of his generation, and Phillies fans can’t imagine a season ending without him on the mound.
If Wheeler starts, this becomes a different handicap, and I’d lean toward passing on the side. If he’s used as a bridge for two or three innings in relief, Philadelphia’s pitching outlook improves, but Nola still has to get through the Braves lineup at least once or twice.
My position is built on Nola being the primary pitcher. That’s still the most likely plan as of this morning, but check the lineups before you bet.
Both Bullpens Are Stretched
Both late-game finishes came against relievers, and both bullpens have been worked hard.
Atlanta’s top three relievers, Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee and Didier Fuentes, have all pitched in both games. None of them threw a heavy pitch count, but tonight would be a third straight day. Lee also gave up the back-to-back homers in Game 2, the first homers he’d allowed to left-handed hitters all season.
Philadelphia’s bullpen has its own problems. Duran threw 27 pitches across two innings in Game 1 and gave up the Riley homer. He sat out Game 2, and Mattingly said he hoped to have him back tonight. Painter saved them with three scoreless innings in Game 2, but he threw 37 pitches and may be limited.
I wouldn’t call either bullpen fresh or exhausted. Both managers will be pulling levers early, and that’s where Atlanta’s deeper season-long numbers matter.
Comparing the Two Teams
| Regular Season | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 88-74 | 94-68 |
| Home/Road | 45-36 road | 52-29 home |
| Runs per game | 4.40 | 4.58 |
| Home runs | 182 | 204 |
| Team ERA | 4.04 | 3.63 |
| Team FIP | 3.79 | 4.13 |
Atlanta scored more, hit more homers and had the better ERA. Philadelphia’s FIP is better, which tells you its staff pitched a bit better than its ERA showed. Still, those are full-staff numbers. Tonight it’s Nola and a patched-together relief corps against Holmes and a tired one.
Atlanta also won the season series 10-5 including these two playoff games, and went 52-29 at home.
Recent form isn’t great on either side. Over the last 10 games, Philadelphia posted a 5.06 ERA and was outscored by 17 runs. Atlanta went 5-5 with a 3.60 ERA. Both teams hit around .225 in that stretch.
The Hitters to Watch
For Philadelphia, it’s Schwarber and Harper. Schwarber tied for the MLB lead with 45 home runs and has 24 career postseason homers, third all-time. Harper hit 29 homers with 107 walks. Bryson Stott has quietly been the hottest Phillie, going 12 for 36 with six doubles over his last 10 games.
The Phillies are 44-9 this season when they don’t allow a home run. That’s how they win: keep the ball in the park and let the big bats do enough.
For Atlanta, Matt Olson led the team with 41 homers, 34 doubles and 93 RBIs, and he drove in two runs in Game 2. Michael Harris II had three hits in Game 1. Riley hit just .219 during the season, but he has three career go-ahead homers in the eighth inning or later of a postseason game, tied for the most ever.
Injuries and Lineup Notes
Philadelphia could be without Edmundo Sosa, who left Game 2 with a right-leg injury. If he’s out, Harper likely moves back to first base, where he’s more comfortable after his costly misplay in right field Wednesday. Luis Arraez isn’t on the Wild Card roster because of an ankle injury.
Atlanta’s rotation has been gutted by injuries all year, which is why Holmes is getting this start instead of a more established arm.
History Is on Philadelphia’s Side, but That’s All It Is
The Braves have never won a postseason series against the Phillies. Philadelphia has knocked them out three times, including 2022 and 2023. That’s a real storyline, and you’ll hear about it all night on the broadcast.
But those were different rosters with different pitchers. I’m not putting any weight on it. Tonight is about Nola against this lineup, and the bullpens after that.
Weather
It should be a warm night in Atlanta, around 79 degrees at first pitch and falling into the mid-70s, with little chance of rain and a light breeze. Warm air helps the ball carry a bit, but there’s no major weather factor either way.
What About the Total?
The first two games combined for 15 runs, almost all of them late. Neither team is starting its best pitcher tonight, both bulk pitchers have given up four homers to this opponent this season, and it’s a warm night.
The other side of the argument is that elimination games bring quick hooks and the best available arms. If Wheeler gets involved early, that hurts an over.
The juice tells you the books lean under, at -118. I’d rather take the over at -104 as a small play, but only if Nola is confirmed as the main pitcher.
Phillies vs. Braves Pick and Prediction
The Braves are the better team on paper, they’re at home, and the price is right. They’ve had success against Nola this season, and their lineup is built for right-handed pitching. Holmes isn’t an ace, but he’s had a better year than Nola and should get enough help from a bullpen that’s shown it can hold a lead.
Philadelphia’s best path is Wheeler pitching meaningful innings and Schwarber and Harper doing what they did Wednesday. That could absolutely happen. But at even money, I’ll take the better team at home.
Here’s how I’d play it:
- Braves moneyline (+100 or better): My best bet, as long as Nola is Philadelphia’s primary pitcher. If Wheeler is named the starter, I’d pass on the side.
- Over 7.5 (-104): A smaller play, again only with Nola confirmed as the starter.
- Props: Hold off on strikeout and first-five bets until the pitching plan is official. An opener changes everything about those markets.
Prediction: Braves 5, Phillies 3
Best Bet: Braves moneyline (+100)
Odds are subject to change. Please bet responsibly.