Detroit Tigers @ Arizona Diamondbacks on March 31, 2026 (9:40 PM ET) is basically a pick’em: both sides -108, with Detroit -1.5 (+155) / Arizona +1.5 (-188) and a flat 9 (O -110 / U -110). Starters are RHP Casey Mize vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt. odds via Bookmaker Sportsbook
Game Info
| Matchup | Detroit Tigers @ Arizona Diamondbacks |
| Date | March 31, 2026 |
| Time | 9:40 PM ET |
| Location | Chase Field (Phoenix, AZ) |
| How to Watch | Dbacks.TV, Detroit SportsNet |
Full Odds
| Market | Detroit Tigers | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -108 | -108 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+155) | +1.5 (-188) |
| Total | 9.0 (Over -110 / Under -110) | |
Starting Pitcher Stats
| Pitcher | Most Recent Full Season (2025) |
|---|---|
| DET: Casey Mize (RHP) | 14-6, 3.87 ERA; 28 G (28 GS); 149.0 IP; 139 SO; 36 BB; 153 H; 64 ER |
| ARI: Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) | 12-8, 5.24 ERA; 27 G (27 GS); 142.2 IP; 117 SO; 32 BB; 164 H; 83 ER |
Recent Form & Pitching Notes
Detroit (2-2) lost 9-6 at Arizona on Monday, March 30. Justin Verlander got hit early (3.2 IP, 5 ER), and the bullpen gave up 4 more: Enmanuel De Jesús (1.0 IP, 3 ER), Brant Hurter (2.0 IP, 1 ER), Kyle Finnegan (0.1 IP), Tyler Holton (1.0 IP). Offensively, Detroit piled up 10 hits and made it a game with a six-run 7th; Colt Keith drove in 2 with two doubles, and the Tigers finished 4-for-10 with RISP.
Arizona (1-3) won that same 9-6 home opener Monday, March 30 after starting the season with three straight losses at Dodger Stadium. Michael Soroka dominated the tone-setting part of the game (5.0 IP, 0 R, 10 K), then the bullpen nearly gave it away: Joe Ross (0.2 IP, 6 ER) was the blow-up, with Ryan Thompson (0.0 IP, 2 BB) and Juan Morillo (0.1 IP) putting out the fire; Taylor Clarke handled a clean inning and Paul Sewald closed it (1.0 IP, SV). Corbin Carroll did the damage (2-for-4, HR, 4 RBI) as Arizona scored 9 on 11 hits despite going 3-for-16 with RISP.
Mize vs. Pfaadt: both are making their first regular-season start of 2026. Detroit gets the steadier baseline off last year’s workload (Mize 3.87 ERA in 149.0 IP), while Arizona is asking Pfaadt to rebound from a rough 2025 (5.24 ERA in 142.2 IP).
Betting Trends
- Tigers/Diamondbacks head-to-head: Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings.
- The teams combined for 15 runs in the series opener (Arizona 9-6 on March 30).
- Detroit has taken 3 of the last 4 meetings overall (including the July 2025 series), with Arizona’s March 30 win snapping that run.
Breakdown
This is priced like a pure venue game, and I don’t buy that with these arms. Mize is the better starting point than Pfaadt on any reasonable projection, and Arizona’s pen just showed you how thin the margin is if the starter doesn’t cover six.
The key angle is leverage innings: it’s early-season starter build-up season, and Arizona already had to empty multiple relievers after Soroka (Ross/Thompson/Morillo/Clarke/Sewald). If this turns into another 4–5 inning start on the Arizona side, Detroit’s offense is going to get plenty of looks at the softer part of that pen again.
Pick’em number with the clearer SP edge is where I’ll live. If the market wants to keep giving Arizona full home credit while their bullpen is in scramble mode, I’ll take the other side.
Best Bet
Detroit Tigers ML -108 (3 out of 5 units)
Mize is the higher floor than Pfaadt, and Arizona’s bullpen usage/instability showed up immediately in Game 1. At a true coin-flip price, I’d rather be holding the better starter.
Predicted Score
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of [Detroit Tigers 5, Arizona Diamondbacks 4].