Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros on Tuesday, March 31, 2026 — Boston +130 / Houston -154 (moneyline), Boston +1.5 (-164) / Houston -1.5 (+136) (run line), Total 7.5 (Over -114 / Under -106). Projected starters: RHP Brayan Bello vs. RHP Hunter Brown.
Game Info
| Matchup | Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros |
| Date | March 31, 2026 |
| Time | 8:11 PM ET |
| Location | Daikin Park (Houston, TX) |
| How to Watch | NESN, Space City Home Network, MLB.TV |
Odds
odds via BetAnything Sportsbook
| Moneyline | Red Sox +130 | Astros -154 |
| Run Line | Red Sox +1.5 (-164) | Astros -1.5 (+136) |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-114) | Under 7.5 (-106) |
Team Stats (2026)
| Team | AVG | R | H | HR | OBP | SLG | ERA | WHIP | BB | K | OBA |
| Red Sox | .226 | 11 | 31 | 3 | .316 | .350 | 3.82 | 1.42 | 16 | 39 | .248 |
| Astros | .262 | 30 | 44 | 5 | .365 | .435 | 5.20 | 1.49 | 30 | 58 | .226 |
Starting Pitcher Stats
| Pitcher | Throws | 2026 (W-L) | 2026 ERA | 2026 IP | 2026 WHIP | 2026 K | 2026 BB | 2025 (W-L) | 2025 ERA | 2025 IP | 2025 WHIP | 2025 K |
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | R | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11-9 | 3.35 | 166.2 | 1.24 | 124 |
| Hunter Brown (HOU) | R | 0-0 | 0.00 | 4.2 | 1.71 | 9 | 4 | 12-9 | 2.43 | 185.1 | 1.03 | 206 |
Recent Form & Pitching Notes
Red Sox (1-3): Most recent game was a 8-1 loss at Houston on March 30. Ranger Suárez took the loss (4.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 2 HR). Johan Oviedo was tagged as well (3.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 2 HR). Offense managed 4 hits and the lone run came on a Wilyer Abreu RBI ground-rule double (Story and Abreu had doubles; Boston went 1-for-3 with RISP).
Astros (3-2): Most recent game was an 8-1 win vs Boston on March 30. Lance McCullers Jr. went 7.0 IP (4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K) and Houston only needed Ryan Weiss for the final 2.0 innings (0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K). Houston put up 13 hits with Jose Altuve going 4-for-4 with 2 HR; Yordan Alvarez hit a 2-run HR; Bryce Matthews also homered.
Pitching setup for tonight: Brown is already stretched enough to miss bats (9 K in 4.2 scoreless IP in his season debut) and Houston’s bullpen is in a clean spot after Monday’s two-pitcher game. Bello hasn’t made a 2026 start yet; last season he logged 166.2 IP with a 3.35 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
Betting Trends
- Houston has won 3 straight games.
- Houston has won each of its last 3 games by 2+ runs (run-line cover in all three).
- Boston has lost 3 straight games.
- Houston has scored 8+ runs in 3 straight games.
- Houston’s game total Over has hit in 46 of its last 109 games.
Breakdown
Houston being the favorite makes sense: Brown is a legit top-end arm off a monster 2025 (2.43 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 206 K in 185.1 IP) and Boston’s offense is slow out of the gate (11 runs in 4 games, .226 AVG). The market is pricing the gap more on lineup form than raw pitcher reputation, but it’s hard to argue with what we’ve seen: Boston just got handled and didn’t force Houston into any real bullpen decisions.
The number I’m keying on is the 7.5. If Brown is anything close to last year’s version, Boston is going to have to grind for every baserunner. The only real threat to an Under is Houston doing most of the work themselves again, but Bello’s ground-ball profile is at least a path to keep this from turning into another homer derby if he’s locating early.
Best Bet
Under 7.5 (-106) (3 out of 5 units)
Boston’s bats are cold, Brown is the best starter in this matchup by a wide margin, and Houston’s pen is fresh after Monday’s low-stress usage.
Predicted Score
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of Houston Astros 5, Boston Red Sox 2.