The Kansas Jayhawks head to Jack Trice Stadium in Ames on Saturday, October 2, to face off against the Iowa State Cyclones, as the 2021 college football season goes on with Week 5. The Cyclones have owned the hapless Jayhawks over the last 11 years, going 10-1 straight up and 7-4 ATS in the process, so let’s see what’s the best Kansas vs. Iowa State betting pick this time around.
Last year, the Cyclones thrashed off the Jayhawks as 27.5-point road favorites, 52-22. They are massive 34-point home favorites for this one, while the totals are listed at 57.5 points on Bovada Sportsbook.
Kansas allowed 52 points at Duke
After a narrow 17-14 win to South Dakota in Week 1, it’s been a bumpy road for the Kansas Jayhawks (1-3; 0-1-3 ATS). They battled bravely in Week 2, suffering a 49-22 defeat at No. 17 Coastal Carolina as 27-point road underdogs, but over the last couple of weeks, the Jayhawks lost to Baylor 45-7 as 17-point home dogs and 52-33 at Duke as 16.5-point road dogs.
Kansas yielded a whopping 607 total yards to the Blue Devils this past Saturday. The Jayhawks blew a 27-21 lead, allowing five touchdowns since halftime. Junior QB Jason Bean finished the game with 323 yards and a couple of touchdowns and interceptions, while freshman RB Devin Neal had 17 carries for 107 yards and a TD.
Bean and Neal have combined for 453 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns so far this season. The Jayhawks are racking up 344.5 total yards per game (105th in the country) while yielding 476.3 in a return (124th).
Iowa State lost a thrilling battle at Baylor
The Iowa State Cyclones (2-2; 1-3 ATS) are coming off a painful 31-29 defeat at the Baylor Bears this past Saturday, playing as 7-point road favorites. They racked up 479 total yards while surrendering only 282 in a return and still lost the game, as their two-point pass conversion failed with 24 seconds left on the clock.
Junior RB Breece Hall had a big game last weekend, carrying the pigskin 27 times for 190 yards and a couple of touchdowns. He’s already accounted for 534 yards from scrimmage and seven scores in 2021, while senior QB Brock Purdy has tossed for 888 yards, four touchdowns, and four picks, completing 70 percent of his passing attempts.
Through the first four weeks, the Cyclones are scoring 27.5 points per game (80th in the nation) on 411.5 total yards (62nd). They are surrendering only 17.8 points (tied-28th) on 216.8 total yards per contest (3rd).
- 1-11-2 ATS in the last 14 games overall
- 0-8 ATS in the last eight outings in Week 5
- 14-2 ATS in the last 16 games played in October
- 9-4 ATS in the last 13 games against Kansas
Kansas vs. Iowa State Pick
I have to fade the Jayhawks here. They’ve covered just once in their last 14 games overall and are among the worst teams in the country at the moment, no doubt. The Cyclones will have a tall task to cover a 34-point spread, but I’m hoping for another strong defensive display that will allow their offense a bunch of opportunities to score.
Back in Week 3, the Cyclones dismantled UNLV as 32-point road favorites, 48-3, and I’m looking for a similar scenario in this matchup with the Jayhawks.
Pick: Take Iowa State -34.0 at -110
The over is 12-2-1 in the Jayhawks’ last 15 games overall. Also, the previous two meetings between Kansas and Iowa State went in the over, but the under is 8-3 in their last 11 encounters. Seven of the Cyclones’ last nine outings went in the under along with a push, and I’m riding the under trend, looking for Iowa State to shut down the Jayhawks’ offense.
Kansas should show some pride and improve slightly on the defensive end after three terrible displays in a row. On the other side of the ball, the Jayhawks will struggle to hit double digits against one of the best defensive units in the country.
Pick: Go under 57.5 points at -110