Bookmaker.eu has SMU at -101 on the moneyline against a Louisville team that has never beaten the Mustangs and just gave up three touchdown passes of 35 yards or longer in its only real test. That is the number that matters in this game, not the spread, and it is why I am on SMU to win outright.
No. 16 SMU (2-0, 1-0 ACC) visits No. 23 Louisville (1-1) on Saturday, September 19, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2. It is Louisville’s ACC opener and SMU’s second conference game. Rhett Lashlee is 2-0 against Jeff Brohm, both games decided by Kevin Jennings, and Brohm said this week that Jennings is “at least one of the top three quarterbacks in the country, in my opinion.” He is not being polite. He has watched the film.
The line
Louisville -1 (-110) at Bookmaker.eu, with the total at 58.5, over -105 and under -111. Moneyline Louisville -115, SMU -101.
The market opened Louisville -1.5 and 56.5 last weekend and has barely moved on the side. Most books still show -1.5; Bookmaker is a half point better for SMU backers and that half point is worth having. The total has gone up two points, and a couple of shops have it at 59.5 or 60.5.
At Louisville -1 and 58.5 the implied score is Louisville 29.75, SMU 28.75. Nobody has an edge in the market’s eyes, which means the price is the edge. SMU -101 is roughly a 50.2 percent break-even. If you think the Mustangs are better than a coin flip, that is your bet. If you want the point, +1 at -110 covers an SMU win or a one-point loss, and the cost of that protection is tiny relative to what you are getting on the moneyline.
Two games, one FBS opponent each
SMU beat Florida State 27-24 in Tallahassee in a game that kicked off at 9:15 p.m. after a stadium power failure, then hung 56 on UC Davis in 100-degree heat. Louisville lost 41-38 to Ole Miss in Nashville on a 48-yard field goal as time expired, then put 59 on Villanova.
The FCS games tell you both offenses have depth. Jennings threw for 337 yards and five touchdowns in one half and sat. Sixteen different Mustangs caught a pass. Lincoln Kienholz went 16-of-21 for 332 and ran for two scores while Louisville piled up 635 yards. File it and move on. The FBS openers are the handicap.
What the Florida State box score actually says
SMU won by three. The box score says it should have been three touchdowns.
SMU outgained Florida State 585 to 324 and averaged 8.7 yards per play to FSU’s 4.8. Jennings threw for 430. SMU converted 8 of 14 third downs; FSU converted 2 of 15. SMU allowed no sacks and recorded three. Yannick Smith caught a 79-yard touchdown and finished with 107 yards, Jalen Cooper had a 50-yard score, Randy Pittman Jr. went over 70, Kendrick Raphael ran for 75.
The reason it was close: four SMU turnovers, a missed field goal, and an offsides penalty on a field goal attempt that turned into an FSU touchdown. Jennings threw two interceptions, one at the goal line in the third quarter and one at 24-24 with 6:33 left. There was a fumble on the opening drive and a mishandled punt. SMU also gave up 199 rushing yards, which is the one defensive number that should bother you.
Strip out the giveaways and that is a dominant road performance against a Power Four team. Keep them in and it is a team that beats itself. Both are true, and the second one is the entire case against SMU.
What the Ole Miss box score says about Louisville
Louisville gained 469 yards against a top-10 SEC team and rallied from 38-24 down to tie it before losing on the final play. Kienholz, in his first college start, went 18-of-29 for 307 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions and added a rushing score. Tre Richardson scored on a 30-yard run and a 62-yard catch. Lawayne McCoy caught a 54-yard touchdown. Carson Hilbert went 3-for-3 on field goals from 25, 46 and 45. The offense is real.
The defense gave up 488 yards, 336 through the air, and three touchdown passes of 35 yards or more, including two from 62. Louisville turned over its entire defensive line this offseason, and Demeco Kennedy, one of the starters up front, hurt his arm in that game and will likely miss Saturday. Against Villanova the Cardinals gave up another one-play touchdown and drew seven flags for 90 yards. Brohm’s stated priority this week was the 15-yard penalties: “The 15-yarders, we cannot tolerate.”
So the two things Louisville does worst, explosive pass plays allowed and penalties, are the two things SMU’s offense is built to punish. Jennings leads the nation at 14.8 yards per attempt. SMU had eight plays of 15-plus yards at Florida State and seven touchdown drives of under two minutes this season.
The numbers, with the asterisk attached
Through two games SMU is scoring 41.5 a game and allowing 17.0; Louisville is scoring 48.5 and allowing 27.0. SMU averages 566 yards at 9.2 per play; Louisville 552 at 8.2. SMU throws for 442 a game, Louisville 341. Louisville runs for 211 a game at 5.5 a carry, SMU 124 at 4.5. SMU allows 4.4 yards per play and a 14.3 percent third-down rate; Louisville allows 5.3 and 32.3 percent.
Turnover margin is the split: Louisville +3, SMU -1. Louisville has not turned it over yet. Louisville is 4-for-4 on field goals; SMU is 2-for-4. Louisville averages 86 penalty yards a game to SMU’s 51.
Every one of those numbers includes an FCS game. None of them will hold at that level against a ranked opponent. The shape is what matters: SMU has the better passing game and the better defense, Louisville has the better run game and the better ball security, and both of those defenses have already been beaten deep by the one real offense they faced.
The quarterbacks
Jennings is 40-of-52 for 767 yards, eight touchdowns and two picks, both in Tallahassee. He is 21-7 as SMU’s starter, in his third year running this offense, and he broke SMU’s career total offense record two weeks ago. He gets 54 percent of his throws out in under 2.5 seconds, which is how an offensive line ranked in the 30s in pressure allowed can give up zero sacks at FSU. The knock is the road. He has 19 career interceptions away from Dallas against five at home, and Saturday is away from Dallas.
Kienholz is 34-of-50 for 639 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions, plus three rushing scores, in two career starts. He also gets rid of the ball fast, 48 percent under 2.5 seconds, which matters because his interior line is three portal additions and his running backs got 0.7 yards before contact against Ole Miss. He can run. He has not made a bad decision yet. Two starts is two starts.
Injuries
Louisville listed eight players out on the ACC report, mostly depth linemen: Max Merz, Bryten Close, Sam Secrest and Cameron Gorin, plus TE Travis Egan, P Jacob Barker, WR Payton Cook and DL Sam Dawson. Kennedy is questionable and, per Brohm, “probably will not be able to go.” Left tackle Anwar O’Neal and right tackle Cason Henry are listed probable after Henry missed Villanova. Isaac Brown is probable after taking a hard hit last week. Keyjuan Brown is questionable with a head injury, and Brohm is “hopeful.” Linebacker Kalib Perry got a court ruling on Monday and makes his Louisville debut. Third-party listings also have Montavin Quisenberry out, so treat him as a no until proven otherwise.
SMU is without All-ACC safety Ahmaad Moses, who still has not been medically cleared for the extra year he won in court. Jimmy Wyrick, the UTSA transfer, has 11 tackles and two sacks filling in and Tyren Polley Jr. starts next to him. Running back EJ Kelly was upgraded to probable on Thursday; Christian Rhodes and tight end Miles Uter are questionable. Link Rhodes is out for the year. The backfield depth is thin, but SMU is going to throw it 40 times regardless.
Net: Louisville’s offensive line is short on bodies but should have its starting tackles. SMU’s secondary is missing its best player. Neither changes the shape of the game.
Situational
Louisville played on Friday and has eight days; SMU played Saturday and has seven, plus a 722-mile trip, and this is its third game in 13 days after a Labor Day opener. Small edge to the home side. The forecast says low 90s and sunny with a slight chance of afternoon storms, which is hot enough to test a Louisville defense that is already thin up front against an offense that scores in under two minutes.
Louisville is 2-7 against the spread at home since the start of 2025. Brohm is 0-6 against the ACC’s three newest members. The series is 4-0 SMU, and Louisville has not forced a turnover in either recent meeting.
About last year’s 38-6. Louisville played that game with backup Deuce Adams at quarterback and Isaac Brown, Keyjuan Brown, Duke Watson and Chris Bell all out. It tells you nothing about Saturday except that Jennings has faced this program twice and won twice. The 34-27 game in 2024 in Louisville is the better reference, and SMU won that one too.
The pick
SMU moneyline at -101, and SMU +1 (-110) if you would rather have the point.
The case is simple. The market has this as a pick, and I think SMU is the better team by a field goal on a neutral field. Jennings is the best player in the game and has already produced 585 yards on a Power Four road trip. Louisville’s one meaningful defensive sample was three deep touchdowns allowed to Ole Miss, its defensive line is rebuilt and now missing a starter, and its offense, as good as it has looked, has one real game on the ledger with a quarterback who has thrown 50 college passes. Home field and an extra day of rest are worth about what the market has given Louisville, and no more.
What beats me is the same thing that nearly beat SMU at Florida State: Jennings gives it away twice on the road, Louisville’s kicker keeps making everything, and a 10-point yardage advantage turns into a three-point loss. That is a real outcome. At even money it is a risk I will take, because the alternative is laying -115 on a team that has never beaten this opponent to win a game it is not clearly better in.
On the total, I lean over 58.5 but I am not playing it at -105. The number has already moved two points, both teams will slow down if the heat is what the forecast says, and Louisville’s run game is capable of eating clock if Brohm decides that is how he keeps Jennings on the sideline. If Jennings over 299.5 passing yards is available at a fair price, that is the better way to bet the same idea.
Prediction: SMU 34, Louisville 31.
Best bet: SMU moneyline (-101). Alternate: SMU +1 (-110).
Odds from Bookmaker.eu, retrieved September 18, and subject to change. Confirm the final ACC availability report for both teams and the Saturday afternoon forecast before kickoff.