Oregon was a 5.5-point favorite over USC in the preseason look-ahead lines. Then the Ducks lost at Oklahoma State, a team that had dropped 21 straight games to FBS opponents, and the number fell to 1.5. Then Oregon put 84 on Portland State and the market walked it back to 2.5. That is where it sits, and I think the walk-back is the mistake.
No. 20 Oregon (2-1) visits No. 12 USC (4-0) on Saturday, September 26, at 7:30 p.m. ET, 4:30 local, on NBC and Peacock. It is Oregon’s Big Ten opener. USC already has one, a 42-35 escape at Rutgers. Lincoln Riley is 0-2 against Dan Lanning and 6-13 against ranked teams at USC, and Oregon has won four straight in a series USC leads 38-24-2. Both quarterbacks from last November’s 42-27 Oregon win are back.
The number
Bookmaker’s September 23 board: Oregon -2.5 (-118), USC +2.5 (-102), moneyline Oregon -145 and USC +120, total 62.5 with the over -108 and under -110.
The prices tell you what the market wants you to pay for. Oregon -145 needs the Ducks to win 59 percent of the time. USC +120 breaks even at 45.5. Oregon -2.5 at -118 needs a 54 percent cover rate. And the difference between USC +2.5 and USC +3 is a field-goal loss, which is the single most common outcome in a game priced like this. If you are on the Trojans and can find 3, take it. If you are on Oregon, you want it under 3 and you have it.
At -2.5 and 62.5, the implied score is Oregon 32.5, USC 30.
Oregon against real teams
The 84-0 is the number the market reacted to. It is also the least useful game on either schedule. Oregon had 726 yards against Portland State, a 49-0 halftime lead, and Dylan Raiola went 11-for-11 in relief. Strip it out and Oregon’s two FBS games look like this: 32.5 points scored per game, 33 allowed.
The Boise State opener was a 34-27 win in which Oregon outgained the Broncos 497-274 and trailed 17-14 at half. Ninety penalty yards, a muffed punt that gave Boise a short-field touchdown, and a 62-yard Dante Moore to Dakorien Moore strike in the fourth quarter to put it away. A team that wins the yardage battle by 223 and the scoreboard by seven is a team that gave points back.
Then Stillwater. Oklahoma State outgained Oregon 554-281, led 25-12 in first downs, and held the ball for 36:54. Oregon ran for 90 yards at 3.0 a carry and allowed 237 on the ground and 317 through the air, with zero sacks and one tackle for loss. Moore went 14-of-29 for 191 and was sacked four times. Oregon led 31-30 early in the fourth quarter and did not score again. Afterward, Oklahoma State’s coach said his linebackers had picked up a stance tell: balanced feet meant run, split stance meant pass. Lanning’s response on Monday was “I haven’t coached them well enough.”
Two new coordinators, seven sacks allowed in three games, 73.7 penalty yards a game, and a defense that got run over by a Big 12 team coming off a loss to Tulsa. The Portland State game answered none of that.
USC against real teams
USC’s problem is different. The offense has been elite from the first snap. Jayden Maiava is 87-of-115 for 1,173 yards, 12 touchdowns and one interception, a 75.7 percent completion rate, and the line has allowed three sacks in four games. King Miller has 338 rushing yards at 5.3 a carry, Waymond Jordan 188 at 5.1. Freshman Kayden Dixon-Wyatt has 18 catches for 258, Corey Simms 12 for 178, tight end Mark Bowman 15 for 160. USC converts 65.2 percent of its third downs, which is the best number on either side of this sheet.
The defense is why USC is 1-3 against the spread despite being undefeated. Take out the Fresno State shutout and the other three opponents averaged 30.3 points. At Rutgers, USC had a 461-460 yardage edge, gave up six of 11 third downs and three of four fourth downs, allowed five plays of 20-plus yards, and needed Prophet Brown’s 99-yard interception return to win by seven against a team that came in 0-3 and minus-7 in turnover margin. Riley’s own explanation was that injuries forced “a lot of different guys” into the secondary.
Twelve USC players were out for that game, three linebackers and two safeties among them, and safety Kendarius Reddick is still listed questionable. Gary Patterson’s first USC defense is a patchwork right now, and Oregon’s receivers are the best it has faced.
The matchups
Oregon’s receivers against USC’s secondary is the Ducks’ path. Evan Stewart has 15 catches for 222, Dakorien Moore 11 for 192 and three scores, and Jeremiah McClellan had 170 yards in two games before missing Portland State with a leg injury. He is questionable. Tight end Jamari Johnson has missed two straight and is listed out. If McClellan plays, Oregon has three players who can hit the kind of 20-plus-yard plays Rutgers hit five times.
USC’s protection against Oregon’s pass rush is the Trojans’ path. Oregon had zero sacks against Oklahoma State. USC has allowed three all year. If Maiava has time, he is completing three of every four throws, and the Ducks’ third-down defense, which reads 22 percent on the season, has not been tested by anyone who can convert like USC.
The run games decide the tempo. Miller and Jordan against a front that allowed 237 to Oklahoma State. Jordon Davison, 194 yards at 5.9 a carry with four touchdowns, against a USC defense that allowed 122 rushing yards to Rutgers’ Antwan Raymond. Both run games should work, which is a large part of why the total is 62.5.
Then Oregon’s offensive line against Patterson. Seven sacks allowed, 3.0 a carry in Stillwater, and a quarterback whose footwork was being read from the second level. Patterson has watched that film. Whether Oregon fixed the tell in two weeks is the most important unknown in the game.
Injuries
Oregon: LG Trent Ferguson is out for the season after hurting his knee in his first start. WR Jalen Lott is out several weeks after hand surgery. McClellan questionable, Johnson out, RB Simeon Price questionable after missing recent games, OL Douglas Utu and DL A’Mauri Washington questionable, DB Carl Williams IV doubtful with a head injury from the Oklahoma State game.
USC: WR Trent Mosley, who had 13 catches for 255 yards and four touchdowns plus a punt-return score, is out with a knee injury for multiple games. Reddick questionable. The linebacker and safety groups that were gutted for Rutgers need Saturday’s report. Big Ten availability lists post two hours before kickoff, so this is a game-day check.
Weather is a non-factor: mostly sunny, high near 90 downtown, a late-afternoon kick.
Situational
Oregon played Friday and has eight days. USC played Saturday in New Jersey and has seven with a cross-country flight home. Oregon stays in the Pacific time zone. The Ducks have a bye after this; USC hosts Washington next week. USC is 24-11-1 at home in the series. Riley has beaten Michigan and Iowa as ranked opponents at USC and lost to nearly everyone else, and he has never beaten Lanning.
The pick
USC +2.5 (-102), and I like the moneyline at +120 as the second play.
I am not betting on USC’s defense. I am betting that the market is still pricing Oregon off its preseason ranking and a 726-yard game against an FCS opponent, when the two games that count showed a team with a leaky offensive line, a run defense that got gashed, a penalty problem, and a quarterback who had to be told by the other team that he was tipping plays. USC has the most efficient offense in this matchup by a wide margin, it has not been sacked, and it is playing at home against a team that has looked ordinary away from Autzen. A field-goal game is the likeliest outcome, and in a field-goal game I want the plus money and the points.
What beats me: Oregon’s offensive line holds, Moore gets 250 through a secondary that is missing half its depth chart, and the Ducks win by 10 the way they did in Eugene last year. The talent is there. It is a $50 million roster with a coach who was 50-9 before this season. That is exactly why the market has not let this number go past 2.5, and it is a real outcome. I just do not think it is the likelier one.
On the total, I lean over 62.5. Both offenses are averaging 500 yards, both defenses have been carved up by teams worse than the one across the field, USC converts two of every three third downs and Oregon’s real games have averaged 65.5 combined points. The under case is Patterson slowing Oregon the way Oklahoma State did and Oregon’s front finally getting home, and I would not bet on both happening at once.
Prediction: USC 34, Oregon 31.
Best bet: USC +2.5 (-102). Alternate: USC moneyline (+120). Lean: Over 62.5.
Odds from Bookmakers’s September 23 board and subject to change. Confirm the spread at your book and both Big Ten availability reports, which post two hours before kickoff.